Thursday, March 26, 2009

3 Phases of Bear Market (2007 to 2012?)

My most popular article is Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years (2008 to 2016).

Have you read it?

According to The Joseph Cycle, the next 7 Years will be a Bear Market, starting from October 2007.

When will this Bear Market likely to end?

The most optimistic forecast based on Elliott Wave Analysis, this Bear Market might last 4 to 6 years from 2007. This Supercycle or Grand Supercycle Degree Bear Market has 3 phases (legs):

  1. The first leg ( A ) down had likely ended on March 9, 2009.

  2. The second leg ( B ) is likely to be in progress, a likely 50% retracement of the decline from October 2007. Wow, you estimate how much is that lor!

  3. The third and final leg ( C ) down will be next. Dow will likely end with 90% of its value gone (from October 2007 top)! Wah, you estimate lor!

See diagram attached (click to enlarge).

Oops! I wonder what will happen if the major correction forecasted in April 2009 makes a new low!

So, do you still want to pick the bottom? Do you still want to buy and hold?

More in Part 2 to this Article!

Read STI/DOW Elliott Wave Count - where are we now for updated diagram

Read 3 Phases of Bear Market (2007 - 2017) - update

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