Thursday, October 9, 2008

Market Bounce Outlook - Next 6 Months

S&P's Sam Stovall told CNBC yesterday that history points to an 18% market bounce in 6 months. "It won't be a V-shaped recovery, but a slow, meandering recovery. History is a guide, but never gospel."

It is often said that bear markets don't end until the last TV bull capitulates. Could the following on CNBC be a sign that a bottom is near? :

"Jim Cramer throws in the towel - The host of CNBC's Mad Money, and renowned bull, went on the Today Show on Monday and told investors to get out of the market. Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week. I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock market right now."

Some analysts are wondering if this national announcement by the popular Cramer may have added to Monday's panic sell-off in the first five hours of trading before it began to recover.

Yesterday, STI broke through my Bottom Indicator on the daily and weekly charts. However, none of the stocks I'm monitoring broke the Bottom Indicator, except for Keppel Corp. This is ugly! (Read past history dated September 19, 2008 - Will Singapore Stock Market Rebound)

I will wait and see. “History is a guide, but never gospel”. So better be safe than sorry.

What's more, yesterday was the first day of the Yang Water Dog Month. Water is very strong, killed the Fire in the Stock Market. That's why all the stock markets crash! May be more waterfall to come! Be careful.

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