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Friday, May 8, 2009

Jeremy Grantham talked about Joseph Cycle?

Still remember the legendary investor, Jeremy Grantham?

Yes, he had just released his May 2009 Quarterly Letter to his clients.

In this issue, he mentioned Joseph, Seven Lean Years - “... with masses of help from incompetent leadership, we probably do face a period that will look and feel painfully like 7 lean years and they will indeed be following about 7 overstimulated very fat ones”

Note other Key Extracts from the Letter:

  1. We are likely to have a remarkable stock rally, far in excess of anything justified by either long-term or short-term economic fundamentals.
  2. S&P 500 quite likely to run way beyond fair value (880) to 1000-1100 or so before end of year.
  3. Market always anticipates an economic recovery (normaly leads by 6 months, plus/minus 2) and sometimes, it must be admtted, there are several false moves (“suckers' rallies”) before the recovery takes place.
  4. Unless you have extreme luck or divine guidance, you will never catch the low.
  5. Everyone and his dog will be claiming it as the next major multi-year bull market. But such an event, a true lasting bull market is mostly unlikely.
  6. The rally will set us up for a long, drawn-out disappointment not only in the economy, but also in the stock markets of the developed world.
  7. Confidence could crack one more time and the market could go to a new low before the major anticipated rally.
  8. Not a V, L or W recovery. I'm proposing a VL Recovery – Very Long, in which the stimulus causes a fairly quick or superficial recovery, followed by a second decline, followed in turn by a long, drawn-out period of sub-normal growth as the basic underlying economic and financial problem are corrected.

Above sounds familiar? Can you find these in various articles in this blog?

In particular, 3 Phases of Bear Market?

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