Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Earn Higher Deposit Interest Rate with Mum!

I always place Fixed Deposits in a joint account with my mum to earn higher interest rate. I get my brothers and sisters to do that as well.

Why not take advantage of the higher interest rate paid to senior citizens!

What's more, there are other benefits of having a joint account. Oops! It's my secret, I cannot share the details openly. Guess you might already know lor.

Happy investing!

Monday, September 29, 2008

Buy on Rumor, Sell on Facts?

US Stock Markets were up end of last week. Will it be a case of buy on rumor, sell on facts when the Bailout Package is released Monday?

Be careful, remember the Hindenburg Omen which is still in play until October 2008. There are alot of market moving economic reports this week in US.

Today is New Moon based on the Lunar Calendar. October 8 will be the start of the Yang Water Dog month based on Fengshui Calendar. Remember, Water is no good for Stock Market. Water extinguishes Fire.


September 29 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: unlikely to have strength

Financial Astrology: Less volatile, little bullish.

Technical Analysis: US indices - unclear direction Monday, then likely to decline, first target 9750, might be worst.


Sunday, September 28, 2008

Big Walk On Water 2008 – TNP & Fairprice!

On 2 November 2008, as part of The New Paper’s 20th anniversary celebrations, 20,000 people will be invited to take part in this special Big Walk. Registration for the Big Walk this year will be free.

"NTUC FairPrice, Suntec City Mall, PUB and The New Paper all recognised that a visit to the Marina Barrage would not just help Singaporeans fall in love with this new jewel but it would also bring our readers together for a Sunday picnic and a post-walk party at the mall later.”

Start point: Suntec City Fountain of Wealth
End point:
Marina Barrage – Wow this is beautiful!
Distance: About 5km

Return trip: Free shuttle buses from 9am to 1pm from Marina Barrage to Suntec City Mall

Registration: FREE - Just present a cut-out of The New Paper’s new masthead (the logo on the front page) at the registration booths!

What you’ll get:

  1. A special goodie bag from presenting sponsor NTUC FairPrice @ Marina Barrage
  2. A goodie bag from sponsor Suntec City Mall with vouchers, towels, drinks and other freebies @ Suntec City Mall (on return trip)
  3. Raincoat, Sun visor, Paper fan
  4. A chance to win thousands of dollars of NTUC FairPrice vouchers in the Big Walk contests!
  5. To be one of the first to see the new Marina Barrage
  6. A Sunday morning of family fun – a scenic walk capped with a picnic on the beautiful rooftop green at the Marina Barrage, with a view of the city skyline and the waterfront

More details on registration see Big Walk On Water



So, w
hat are you waiting for? Let's go and enjoy the beautiful scenery, get healthy and wealthy!



4 Singapore Flyer Tickets – Free!

Last year we went on a shopping trip to KL. The organisor offered us a free ride on the Eye on Malaysia, though it was not part of the package tour. We took the ride, then with the experience, we need not take the Singapore Flyer anymore as it is so expensive.

Last week, this organisation called me to attend a presentation. Offered me free lunch plus choice of $50 shopping vouchers, dining vouchers or 2 Singapore Flyer Tickets. Then my mum was down with flu, so I cancelled the appointment. This week, they called me again.

So yesterday, I went there with my mum. No lunch provided, only some snacks. Listened to 90 minutes of presentation on services offered and pestered me to sign up. I'm not taking up the package, it is going to be a long term liability, not an asset! Managed to get ourselves out. Collected 4 Singapore Flyer Tickets, and rushed for our lunch! Ha ha, the counter staff told me they made a mistake, should be 2, not 4 tickets as written in the letter to me!

Ho ho ho! Let's sing together, Santa Claus came early..to..my..house! Ho ho ho!



Saturday, September 27, 2008

Economic Cycle vs Stock Market Cycle

Do you know that Stock Markets are usually about 6 to 9 months ahead of the Economic or Business cycle?

There are 4 stages in the Stock Market and Economic Cycles as follows:

Stock Market Cycle vs Economic Cycle


1. Market Bottom
vs 1. Full Recession, Trough

2. Bull Market vs 2. Early Recovery, Expansion

3. Market Top vs 3. Full Recovery, Peak

4. Bear Market
vs 4. Early Recession


Below is the Theoretical Model Diagram which clearly depicts the relationship between the Stock Market Cycle and Economic Cycle. (Click on the diagram to zoom out)





Diagram with courtesy of StockChart.com

It is based on Sam Stovall's S&P's Guide to Sector Rotation. It states that different sectors are stronger at different points in the economic cycle. Traders/Investors use this model to anticipate which companies will be successful in the coming stages of an economic cycle. Watching the economic conditions (ie consumer expectations, industrial production, interest rates and yield curve) might give some telltale signs as to the stage the economy might be in.

So now you know why some "Smart Money" are buying up Financials?

But remember that past performance in the stock market does not always mean future success. A particular sector may or may not perform due to other factors.

Remember what Mr Joseph Cycle said :

"We can never predict the future. But with Cycles we can anticipate the safe times and the dangerous times, the moment to take risk and the moment to conserve.The Joseph Cycle is a way to be wealthy, a method to protect wealth and a tool for survival"

Other related articles:


Friday, September 26, 2008

Eat Well For Less!

Yong can cook, so can I!

Oops..I mean my Mum (Yong) is a great cook! She cooks the best chilli crabs, curry chicken, salted vegetable duck.... She makes the best teochew rice dumplings you cannot get in the market!


Now, I have learnt 80% of her skills and taken over as chief cook in the house! I cook lunch cum dinner daily. I only cook healthy food cos we are all aging, health is wealth lor! So no more chilli crabs, curry chicken or salted vegetable duck. Got lah, occasionally, I can cook these also you know.

Recently I bought an electric pressure cooker using the $300 voucher I won at a seminar. My mum's favourite is braised pork hock with dark soya sauce. So the pressure cooker helps cook faster, better and saves electricity! Now we can have all our favourite pork ribs soups, with various combination of nuts, cooked well for less!

Yummy Yummy! Fast to cook, good to eat!


Thursday, September 25, 2008

Back to 1930 or worst than Great Depression?

This US expert had been very accurate in his forecast so far. Very scary.

He said the coming crash will be much larger, part of a grand supercycle bear market. It will be a larger scale of the 1966 to 1982 DOW bear market chart!

The depression will be worldwide. It will be worst than the 1930 Great Depression!

Are you ready for the Recession or Great Depression?

Cash is King!

I already started saving, saving on expenses, saving for reinvestment in liquid and safe assets, preserving my wealth....

Survival first, make money later!




Stock Trader's Almanac 2009

After I started working, I was always at MPH or Times Bookshops on weekends, reading books to upgrade myself. With internet, I no longer do that except when I cannot find the information I want.

Recently, I started visiting the bookshops again. I went to Kinokuniya this time as it has a wider range of books and uncontrolled (ie not shrink wrapped).

I found the Stock Trader's Almanac 2008 and read it. I was disappointed as I thought I can find things mentioned in Amfraser's STI Forecast or useful information for the rest of 2008.

A very expensive book costing S$70+, but I read it free! Ha ha, times are bad, many people do that at the bookshops!

When the Stock Trader's Almanac 2009 is out, you can see me at Kinokuniya again!


Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Already Bottom - Singapore Stocks?

Have you read Amfraser's STI Forecast dated September 22, 2008?

Below is a summary of Amfraser's STI Forecast with my comments in red:

1. Forecast a potential upside of STI 2700 to 2800 for current rebound, using the Mar to May 2008 rally as benchmark. I think it's tough considering the fengshui energy was strong from Mar to May 2008, but weak now. Depends on Dow for Tuesday night - if -ve then decline continues, if +ve then possible rally a few more days.

2. STI 2300 might be tested again in next 5-6 weeks (around mid-Nov), but unlikely to break. I think it might break in October 2008.


3. STI 2300 might be broken in Feb/Mar 2009. I think the fengshui energy might be strong.

4. STI should bottom out by April/May 2009. I think not so soon. Astrology forecast a big crash in August 2009, let's wait and see.



Regardless of my comments, let's wait for my S.M.A.R.T. - Crystal Ball when the time comes!

Make Money Work for You!

Have you read the book “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”? If so, you would have some financial education. You would have learnt how to make money work for you and not be its slave!


After I read the book, I began to think through things differently. A number of my friends and people I've spoken to also told me they have changed after reading the book. They began to realised what is an asset and what is a liability in their life. They sold their cars and started financial planning to make money work for them.

I used to spend a lot of time upgrading myself so I can earn more money on the job, a highly paid slave. Now, no more. I've changed my focus to spend time learning how to make my money grow, make money work for me!

I have e-book summaries for these books, so just email me if you would like a copy: Rich Dad, Poor Dad; Rich Dad's Guide to Investing; 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success by William O'neil

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Avoid Investment Instruments You Don't Understand

Unless I understand the investment instruments and the risks, I will not be able to manage my investment risks. So it is best to avoid such new investment instruments and not be overcome by greed and fear.

I prefer to stick to traditional investment instruments. It's better to be safe than to go for the little additional returns without knowing or understanding the hidden risks. Capital protected or Capital guaranteed does not mean there is no risk. One needs to understand the conditions attached before the investment is considered capital protected or guaranteed. These had been explained in the Straits Times before.

I'm lucky as I have some financial education and able to question and challenge any sale of new investment instruments to me.

Now that I have a better understanding of the economics and stock markets, I'm able to better manage my investments in equity and equity-related instruments such as unit trusts.



Monday, September 22, 2008

Bear Forced into Hibernation - Singapore Stocks Rally?

Would history of 1929 -1948 and 1987 repeat itself?

Will Global, Regional and Singapore Stock Markets continue the bear market rally?

Or will the downtrend resume?

How long can this bear market rally last?



September 22 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Stock Market might be positive early week, rest of week unlikely to have strength

Astrology: Stock Market less volatile, little bullish.

Technical Analysis: US indices likely to decline on Monday before rally resumes.



Be careful, I think many waiting to sell into this bear market rally. Remember the Hindenburg Omen!






Sunday, September 21, 2008

Decision on NTUC Income Insurance was Right!

My friend told me her whole life insurance policy with AIA had not break even after 17 years. She was waiting for the 20th anniversary as the policy would likely pay a bonus so she will profit from the policy.

My whole life insurance policy of more than 20 years with NTUC Income almost doubled what I paid. So my decision to insure/invest with NTUC Income was right. Thanks to the following:

  1. My Dad (deceased) who repeatedly reminded me not to waste money buying insurance policies. So I decided to only go for savings or investment type policies with protection, ie I should get my money back at end of term or anytime.
  2. I compared whole life insurance policies among 3 insurance companies and found that NTUC Income gave the most value for money, ie get more money back , breaks even within a shorter period of time and compounding insured amount.
  3. I bought the policy not long after I started working. Starting young means my annual premium will be lower, thereby reaping higher returns and shortens break even period.

Insuring with NTUC Income also gives me peace of mind! Especially now seeing what had happened to others. And I've made myself a long-term shareholder of NTUC Income, so it's money out of right pocket and into left pocket!

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Candlesticks and Fibonacci Secrets

I was quite disappointed with last Thursday's Wealth Academy Trader preview session.

Reasons:
  1. He shared more useful information at the Value Investing Seminar
  2. His focus was on the US market and on Options Trading.

Options trading is risky and not for everyone. More research and hardwork are required and these alone does not mean one will be successful. Ultimately it is your winning psychology which determines success (60%), whichever instrument you trade.


Only thing I liked was he shared his view that US is a bear market, either move down or sideways until 2011. And if rally does occur from 2012, it might last till 2016. He did not explain why. My guess is he is using the 4-year US Presidential Cycle to do his forecast.

I still stick to my Stock Market Forecast for the Next 8 Years. Understanding Market Cycle is important to determine the Equity Investment Strategy one should adopt.

Now the Secrets of Candlesticks and Fibonacci


I coined this, not him. Have you heard about the secret of number 3 and 7? I understand the stock market has a tendency to fluctuate every 3 or 7 days, months or years or multiples of that time-frame. This applies to the US market very well.

By fluctuate, I mean the trend reverses. Conrad said his experience was the market reverses on the 8th candlestick. A candlestick can represent 1 day, 1 month or any time-frame you set on the charts. And this coincides with Fibonacci numbers which is a series of numbers – 1,1,3,5,8,13....


Interesting? So next time, monitor and be extra careful when those numbers ie, 3 or 7 or multiples of these, and 8 comes!


NTUC Income Growth Plan Pays 4.29%

I've single premium insurance policies which are maturing soon in November, 2008. So need to crack my head to think of where to re-invest the funds. It must be 100% safe and earn good returns. Where to find such investments?

Now NTUC Income is having promotion (ends October 31, 2008) on Growth Plan which can earn up to 4.29% per annum. It is paying extra bonus units so the projected returns will be 4.29% instead of 4.18% for a 15-year term. Guaranteed cash value is $70,318 for an investment of $50,000 for 15 years.

With weak outlook of the Global Economy and my Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years, so better to put my money in such save investment which also provides insurance protection!

My agent say I can still benefit from the promotion even though my policies only mature in November, 2008.



Friday, September 19, 2008

Will Singapore Stock Market Rebound?

If we were in a bull market, and STI breaks my 'bottom' indicator, I would have bought into the market. If we were in a bull market, and STI rebounded from the day's low, I would have bought into the market. These are signs that Singapore Stock Market had bottomed and reversal of trend will take place.

However, as we are in a bear market, I was extra cautious of the bull trap, so did not take positions yesterday when all the signs of bottoming and reversal were there.

Then I read the comments of my US expert resource (should be asleep but was watching the crash of the Asian Markets instead), as follows:

"The S&P 500 had closed down more than 4% in two of the last three trading days. The last time this occurred was during the 1987 crash. Most occurrences were during the Great Depression (1928 to 1948). An interesting observation was the performance of S&P 500 on the day following the occurrence was an up day. There was also a 50% chance that the index would be up over the next week and month.”

I shall wait to see what happens on Thursday night and Friday, and read the weekend reports/forecasts for next week. Better be safe than sorry!

Do you think the Singapore Stock Market will rebound and go into a short-term bear market rally?

(I usually prepare my articles at night and schedule for posting next morning)



Thursday, September 18, 2008

Singapore Stock Market near bottom?

Is Singapore Stock Market near bottom?

Do you remember I posted the Regional Indices – Support Levels? All had been broken!

So what's next according to the Global Expert?

SSE - if break 2047, then 1660, 1564
Hang Seng Index – if break 17913, then 14405
Nikkei – if break 12011, then 11739, 11663, 11186, 11039, 10807

What about Straits Times Index? Not in his radar screen leh.

Singapore STI is spineless, follows where-ever these Regional Indices are heading.

But yesterday STI hit and broke my 'bottom' indicator! Does that mean Singapore Stock Market had bottomed out temporary? No, it rebounded at close, so invalidated the indicator!

I shall remain cautious. This week is options expiration week for US markets, meaning market will be extremely volatile as market makers will want to 'kill' options holders, be it call or put depending on volume. Financial Astrology also forecast this week to be volatile. Moreover, all Regional Indices broke support and might head further down.

And remember the Hindenburg Omen – Crash Alert which I posted?

Be careful!

My Insurance and Investments in Safe Hands!

My Insurance and Investments are in Safe Hands!

Since I started working, all my insurance needs are with NTUC Income. I always make sure my long-term investments are in secure hands, in a Singapore Organisation.


Even my long-term investments are with NTUC Income and related companies, like Shares in NTUC Income and NTUC Fairprice, single premium insurance policies, etc.

My bank accounts are also with Singapore Banks. My stock trading cash account is with a Singapore Company.

Do you have cash or investment accounts with foreign companies?

Be careful hor, its just the beginning of this financial tsunami!


Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Sun Tze - Art of Investing and Trading

I didn't realised that my Big Picture Approach - 5 Steps to Beat the Stock Market is an application of the Sun Tze Art of War, until someone asked me.

So I called it Sun Tze - Art of Investing and Trading!


Principles of Sun Tze Art of War vs My Big Picture Approach


1. Know the enemy, know yourself – win hundred battles without fear or danger.

I use Joseph Cycle and Fengshui/Astrology to forecast the stock market before entering the stock market. So Beat the Stock Market with more than 80% accuracy!

2. Best to Win without Battle

I already won before I enter the stock market as I made the Trend my Friend!

3. Victorious warriors win first then go to war

I already won by riding the Trend, then sell into strength!


4. He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious

I know when I can enter the stock market using Fengshui/Astrology Forecast, Beat the Stock Market with 80% accuracy!

Hmm.. What do you think?


Warren Buffett Joke - A Millionaire Overnight!

I like this email which I received from Wealth Daily yesterday. The following is an extract:

"Here's a different take on an old Warren Buffett joke:

Question: What's the quickest way to become a millionaire?

Answer: Start out as a billionaire and own a Wall Street investment firm or a mortgage bank.


That adage has never been truer than right now.

As you read this...

Lehman Brothers... gone!
Bear Stearns... gone!
AIG... fighting for its life!
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae... bailed out!
Washington Mutual... grave being dug!
Wachovia... could be next!
UBS... nearly gone!
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs... running for the hills!

A year ago, the combined market cap of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Lehman Brothers was $165 billion. Today? $1.093 billion.

Welcome to the reverse "wealth effect."

And the end of the bleeding looks like it's nowhere in sight."

What a Joke!


Free Preview - Wealth Academy Trader

Tomorrow I'll attend the free 3-hour preview on Wealth Academy Trader. Then I will share with more on the secrets of fibonacci and candlestick analysis.

Interested to join me?

Register online at Wealth Academy Trader

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

5 Steps to Beat the Stock Market

Do you know why more than 80% of traders lose money in the stock market?

  1. Books and Courses only teach Bull Market Conditions and Techniques
  2. Courses they attend did not teach them on macro stock trends or mechanisms
  3. Do no understand the 5 Fundamentals of Investments
  4. Do not understand business and market cycles
  5. Do not have winning psychology – 60% for success


Trading is a probability game. To Beat the Stock Market, we need reliable means to increase our probability of success in making money, whether in Bull or Bear Markets. For me, I've found my method to Beat the Stock Market.


5 Steps to Beat the Stock Market

  1. Forecast the future using market cycles – Singapore Stock Market has 14-year cycle, The Joseph Cycle
  2. Forecast the short term trend using Fengshui/Astrology
  3. Identify the sectors with potential to perform using Fengshui forecast
  4. Select the stocks and time my trades/investment using Technical Analysis
  5. Ride the Bull or Bear Market



Understanding the market psychology is very important as it ultimately determines the market direction.

Fengshui can forecast whether the market psychology will be positive or negative using the 5 elements.

Astrology can forecast the market psychology as the movements, formation or alignment of stars and planets can affect human behaviour, emotions and thinking.

You can see the evidence from Beat the Market – Success Stories.

Let's Beat the Stock Market!

Oh, very important, Sun Tze - Art of Investing and Trading, I mean applying Sun Tze Art of War!




Monday, September 15, 2008

4 Equity Investment Strategies

What is your objective for investing? What is your time horizon? How much risk are you willing to take? How much returns do you expect?

Your investment objective and risk appetite will determine the equity investment strategies which is most suitable for you to grow your wealth.

4 Key Equity Investment Strategies:

  1. Invest in STI ETF – Read Best Risk-Free Investment
  2. Value Investing - Read 5 Rules to Pick Winning Stocks
  3. Momentum Trading – Short Term Trading, long or short, Ride the Trend
  4. Options/Warrants Trading - High risk => High reward. Options trading applies to US markets which is a NO NO for me. Warrants trading applies to Singapore Market. I prefer STI warrants over Stock warrants.

Unless I'm successful with Strategies 1 & 2, I will not proceed with Strategy 3.

Unless I'm successful with Strategies 1-3, I will not proceed with Strategy 4 - STI warrants trading.

I'll never proceed with Strategy 4 – Options trading in US markets – I'm scared of unknown waters. Morevoer, only 5% of options traders make money!


Value Investing – When to Sell?

When should you sell a value stock or investment?

Again, I've simplified it into 3 Reasons after reading those from Adam Khoo.

3 Reasons to Sell a Value Stock
  1. Market turns bearish and/or Stock turns into a downtrend
  2. Stock no longer meet Rules 1 to 4 to Pick Winning Stocks
  3. Management sells large shareholdings for unacceptable reasons


I prefer to use my BIG-PICTURE Approach, my Crystal Ball, and Signals of Changing Fundamentals to make my sell decisions.

I'll ride the bull trend and sell before the bear comes!


Sunday, September 14, 2008

Best Risk-Free Investment

This is the 3rd time I'm writing this:

"Mr Market has never failed to recover from every setback. But not so for individual stocks!”

So what do you think is the best risk-free investment?

Yes, buy the index! Why risk-free? You will never lose money over time, if you hold it long term, for at least 10 years! Of course that depends on when you buy. It's all about timing!

According to Adam Khoo, if you buy STI and hold it for 10 years, average return is 10% per annum. If you buy S&P or Dow, average return is 12% per annum for 10 years. He prefers to buy the US indices. I disagree. Why?

Exchange rate risk! I'll never buy US indices, I'll be happy with STI. I'll not hold long term. I'll wait for STI to bottom, buy and hold till there is sign of a trend reversal, then sell.

Remember this bear market might last for 7 years or more. Market will likely be down and/or remain sideways for the next 7 years. Hold, I will when the bull run is back!

How to buy STI? Buy STI ETF!




5 Rules To Pick Winning Stocks!

I've simplified the method to pick winning stocks, after reviewing the methods adopted by Warren Buffett and Adam Khoo.

The 5 Rules to Pick Winning Stocks are:
  1. Competitive Advantage – company must have sustainable monopoly status or have characteristics which is difficult to replicate to protect their market share.
  2. Consistent performance with growth potential - measured by ROE, profit margin
  3. Low or no debt – debt/equity ratio
  4. Price is right – share price lower than intrinsic value
  5. Time is right – stock on uptrend, ie. breaks out and above 20/50 DMA.


I'm more a TA person than fundamental person. But I know whether a company is good or not, without the need to go through exercise 1 to 3.

I'll will time the market before I buy using my Big-Picture Approach. I know when to buy and when to sell using my Crystal Ball!

So when should you sell your value stocks?


Saturday, September 13, 2008

Welcome! Global and Singapore Visitors!

Welcome! All Global and Singapore Visitors of this blog!

Thank you for visiting this blog regularly.

Today, I decided to capture the statistics of visitors to this blog as Sitemeter might be down today and/or tomorrow for migration and upgrading. Hopefully it would be better at capturing all information and statistics going forward to help me improve this blog.

I'm not good at technicals so unable to capture the graphics for display here. So just show you the statistics:

By Continent/Countries:

Asia = 75%, 69% Singapore, the rest Taiwan, Malaysia, China, India, Indonesia
North America = 11%, including Canada
Europe = 3%, including Switzerland
Australia = 2%
Unknown = 9%

Most Singapore Visitors were referred by
:

Sgfunds.com forum
ShareInvestor.com forum
Shares Investment.com forum
Sgclub.com forum
Channel News Asia.com forum
Ping.sg forum

Thank you for visiting and hope this blog will continue to help you preserve and grow your wealth!

Subscribe for instant notification of updates to this blog if you have a busy schedule so you do not miss out on time critical updates!


Cheers!

Value Investing in Bear Markets

Rules/Principles of Investing should change with time and markets.

Adam Khoo acknowledges we are in bear markets, so he had changed his rules. That makes him different from Warren Buffett, with a more practical or realistic value investing approach which I applaud.

His approach to value investing is long term but applying both fundamental and technical analysis. Technical analysis involves timing your entry/exit.

Here's a summary of what I learnt at the seminar by Adam Khoo/Conrad Lim on Value Investing:

  1. Best Risk Free Instrument to Grow Your Wealth for Different Time Horizons
  2. 8+1 Steps to Buying Great Stocks at Huge Discount
  3. 7 Reasons to Sell a Value Stock – this was in the handouts, he did not cover in the seminar
  4. 4 Growth Strategies, choose the one which best meet your objectives and risk appetite
  5. Why More Than 80% are Losers in the Markets? Books and Courses might not teach you Bear Markets conditions?
  6. Secrets of Fibonacci and Candlestick Analysis.


Which one do you want to know more about first?

I'll share the details of each in future articles.

Learning from the Experts for Free!

Adam Khoo's course focus on wealth creation through business, investing and intellectual property.

Intellectual Property – ya, that's why you see him and his various trainers focusing their efforts in running courses, writing books and creating blogs to market their intellectual property.

I found their blogs and had put it up as Blogs I Follow.

Since Adam and Stuart do not post daily, I've subscribed to their notification service, then I get some gifts free! Stuart is the expert on internet marketing.

I'm going to read Conrad's blog daily to get his views on US indices and changes in the market.

Recently, I attended a workshop to learn some trading techniques from V3GO. Quite simple and powerful techniques. I'll share with you later after I've tested it. Meanwhile, visit the blog to see his daily analysis and calls.

Happy reading!



Friday, September 12, 2008

Free Access to ShareInvestor.Com

Last night, I attended the seminar by Adam Khoo and Conrad Alvin Lim on Value Investing organised by ShareInvestor. I got to attend it for free, thanks to my friend. I called my sister who also attended it for free since there were still vacancies.

It was a very power-packed 3-hour session. Worth my time, very educational and rewarding, things which I've never thought of or put together when investing or trading. I doubt you can learn it from any other trading course advertised in the papers. I'll tell my friends and relatives to attend his free workshops. Trust me, I've no business motive, I'm not selling intellectual property!

I was also rewarded with One Month Free Access to ShareInvestor.com, expires Oct 15, 2008.

I'm giving it away to the first person(s) who email me via Get Email Updates

I'll be sharing what I learnt after I've digested it later.

Good Luck!

NTUC Fairprice Shares pays 5% dividend!

Yesterday I received the NTUC Fairprice Co-operative's dividend and rebate statement for financial year ended March 31, 2008.

I was surprised to receive so much money for this investment! I was holding more shares than I thought. I received 5% dividend and 4% in rebate, which had already been credited to my bank account on September 5, 2008.

Too bad, that's the maximum each member can hold.

Another very good Capital Protected Dividend Stock to own!



Ntuc Income Share Pays 9% Dividend for 2009, credited June 3 2010

Free Webinars Offered by Metastock

Metastock had partnered with 3 industry experts to offer you the following free webinairs:

1. Elliott Wave Analysis Using Metastock
Monday September 15, 2008 at 9.00pm (Singapore Time)
Register online at Equis

2. Drawing Effective Support and Resistance Lines
Monday September 22, 2008 at 9.00pm (Singapore Time)
Register online at Equis

3. Trading Strategies that Work
Monday September 29, 2008 at 9.00pm (Singapore Time)
Register online at Equis

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Hindenburg Omen – Crash Alert!

Have you heard of the Hindenburg Omen?

A crash signal or alert! Hindenburg Omen is an indicator used to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. Hindenburg Omen appeared a few times in June 2008, and is valid for 4 months. Meaning there is a high probability of a severe decline in the NYSE into October 2008.

Be careful! Even though Fengshui forecast a possible market rebound in September, I think I'll not take the risk.

Just read that London Stock Exchange's online system crashed for about 7 hours leaving people unable to buy/sell their stocks on September 8, 2008.

What if something happens today, September 11, anniversary of terrorist attack? What if war suddenly breakout? Then selling stampede could cause SGX to crash?

So scary! I better stay out!

Warren Buffett Plays Bridge, I play Wahjong!

Do you know Warren Buffett likes to play bridge online with Bill Gates? He thinks bridge would teach kids maths skills, logical thinking and how to work with others.

I began to like playing Wahjong after I understand it can help keep my mind alert! So I won't suffer from aging symptoms like slowly losing my memory, I mean delay it coming lor! I'm already affected seeing my mum having those symptoms. I think it's infectious!

Wahjong is the online game for Mahjong lah! At the website, there are many other games, but me lazy to learn lah. Playing Wahjong with those kids or teenagers is fun. Most of the online players are very young leh, as young as 12 years old. How I know? They chitchat as they play, ask me my age, boy or girl, etc. Ha ha!

You can access it under My Favourite Game on the right sidebar of this blog.

Have fun!

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

6 Rules for Short Selling - Bear Market

Making money in the stock market is a probability game. So we need to look for opportunities which increases our probability of success in making money from Mr Market.

A review of the 6 rules in William O'Neil's book on How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short might help increase our probability of success in short selling using CFD:
  1. Short sell only in early period of Bear Market. Short selling in late period is dangerous as market can reverse suddenly. Short selling in Bull Market does not offer high probability of success.
  2. Stocks should be relatively liquid with an average daily traded volume of 1 million or more shares. If you short illiquid stocks, you might get short squeezed when market reverse suddenly.
  3. Stocks which are market leaders in Bull Market are potentially good candidates.
  4. Stocks with Head and Shoulder chart patterns or where 50dma cuts below 200dma are good candidates.
  5. Take profits often, target 20%-30%.
  6. Cut losses quick, cover stops at 4% above short price.

Shorting is a more delicate and disciplined game where you don't want to get burned.

Tomorrow, I'll attending a seminar on short selling, see if I can learn more!

Fengshui Forecast 2009 – How is Your Luck?

2009 is Year of the Yin Earth OX. OX is earth element, so earth comes very strong in 2009. How good is your lucky in 2009? How good is it for the stock market?

The following is the forecast of Luck in 2009 based on your lucky element:

Metal : Very good luck. Earth supports Metal.
Water : Bad luck. Earth can make Water disappear.
Wood : Poor luck. Earth is afraid of Wood. But Wood needs to fight with strong Earth to win
Fire : Fair luck. Strong Earth could weaken the Fire.
Earth : Very good luck. Even better if the birth chart has Yang Wood or Rat.


Generally, people with lucky element of Earth and Metal have more lucky months in 2009, while those with lucky element of Water have least luck in 2009.

So, what does this mean for the stock market in 2009? I'm still waiting for the Fengshui Masters to issue their forecast for 2009. Seems that this year there is some delay in publication, now already almost mid-September 2009.

Note:

Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox is out!



Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Fengshui Forecast was Spot On Again!

Fengshui Forecast for August 2008 Stock Market was spot on again!

STI had a major correction of more than 10%, dropping from 2906 on August 1 to 2574 on September 5.

Too bad, I was not ready to short sell this bear market. But I felt very happy that I've exited the market before this crash. Thanks for the Fengshui Forecast!

I prefer to simply wait on the sidelines, with my cash holdings earning interest from the bank or money market funds.

This is a bear market!

Capital Preservation is Key!

Cash is King!

Survival first, make money afterwards!

Patience will be rewarded when the Time is Right!

"Mr Market has never failed to recover from every setback. But not so for individual stocks!”

September 8 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: (Updates not received yet)

Astrology: expect extremely volatile start of week, end of week less volatile.

Technical Analysis: US indices likely to decline, bounce, then worst decline could strike.

Be careful! This is a Bear Market!

Warren Buffett's Secrets - 10 Ways to Get Rich!

There is so much publicity on her new book on Warren Buffett, to be released soon late September 2008. The Snowball by Alice Schroeder talks about Warren Buffett's Money Making Secrets - 10 Ways to Get Rich, summarised as follows:
  1. Reinvest your profits – when you make money, reinvest the profits
  2. Be willing to be different – make your own decision based on your own standards
  3. Never suck your thumb – Swiftly make up your mind and act on it
  4. Spell out the deal before you start – so you have bargaining power
  5. Watch small expenses – so your profits and paycheck can grow further
  6. Limit what you borrow – so you are debt-free and can focus on saving to invest
  7. Be persistent – with ingenuity you can win the competition
  8. Know when to quit – know when to walk away to avoid further loss
  9. Assess the risks – weigh the consequences/risks vs gains to help you make the right choice
  10. Know what success really means – not measured by dollars but by number of people who actually love you.

Are you on your way to being rich the Warren Buffett Way?

Monday, September 8, 2008

STI Warrants Trading Tips – Part 3

What else do I need to monitor to increase my probability of success in making money trading STI warrants?

Using the STI real-time charts in Nextview, I monitor the following indicators:


  1. 20MA and 50MA
  2. MACD
  3. Stochastics
  4. Parabolic Sar
  5. Barros Swing
  6. Candlesticks with commentary
If you have charts for different time-frames, you will definitely be at an advantage compared to those who only use daily charts.

To be continued in Part 4.


Read Part 1, Part 2

Free Movies - New and Old!

Do you know you can watch latest movies for free from the comfort of your home at anytime?

My family had been watching Kungfu Panda many times since it was released, for free. We watch it online on Internet! So where can you watch free movies?

  1. PPSTREAM
  2. Crunchy - I just got this yesterday, have not taken a look.

Enjoy!

Earn Pocket Money with Dormant Blogs!

Yesterday we had a family network gathering to celebrate my mum's birthday.

Guess what? I didn't know my nephew had a 'personal' blog started 2 years ago! He had just received his first pay cheque from google of US$100 plus and his blog had been dormant very long. He shares his personal things on the blog, but dun want to tell me where.

He had a friend who created many blogs which earns him US$1000 per month. Wow! That's his main source of income and he works part-time just to kill time!

Wow, wow, wow!

Sunday, September 7, 2008

STI Warrants Trading Tips – Part 2

What do I need to monitor to increase my probability of success in making money trading STI warrants?
  1. Dow and Dow Futures – yesterday's closing, 4.00pm
  2. Nikkei and Nikkei Futures – before 9.00am, 11.30am, 2.00pm, 4.00pm onwards
  3. SSE – 9.30am, 2.00pm till closed
  4. Hang Seng Index and Futures – 9.30am, 10.00am, 2.00pm till close, 4.00pm onwards
  5. STI real-time streaming


Why? STI is spineless, usually tracks or follows direction of these regional indices!


Where to get information or real-time charts for these indices?

  1. Nikkei & Hang Seng Futures – IG markets
  2. Nikkei and SSE Live – Phillip Securities Protrader
  3. STI – Nextview
  4. Dow Futures – CNNMoney.com


Why am I sharing this information? Monitoring of these information, especially STI, can also help increase your probability of success in making money in trading stocks. To be continued in Part 3.


Read Part 1

Share Your Experience, Earn Some Pocket Money?

Ever wondered why people who claimed they have made their first million or are millionaires and still teaching? If their trading methods are so good, they should be rich, then why are they still teaching? There is a saying – those who can, do; those who can't, teach! Do you believe?

Why do people teach?
  1. Knowledge not shared is useless.
  2. It is only through teaching that they internalised their understanding and continue to improve themselves.
  3. It is their passion, they want to share their knowledge and experience.
  4. They need a big community to move the market, to make their methods work – market or price movements are a result of supply and demand.
  5. Another source of income to grow their wealth.


Me? Me no millionaire lah, but 1-3 applies when I blog lor. Then of course hope to earn some pocket money after hearing people say they can make money online!

But not easy lah - if nobody wants to read the advertisements, and nobody knows the blog exists, nobody wants to visit the blog cos information not useful or ??

So everyday, I've to crack my head to write useful and unique information which no other blogs have and think of how to publicise my blog.


Bottomline is one must have the passion to share. Me also hope through blogging, it will slow the process so I won't be like my mum - “so long never eat here”! Oh yes, Happy Birthday Mum! She forget already!


I'll share with you why some people claim their 'unattended' blogs continue to earn them pocket money, later. So you wanna blog too?

Saturday, September 6, 2008

STI Warrants Trading Tips

Do you trade STI warrants? This is a high risk high reward instrument. Unless you have the necessary tools and techniques, it is risky to trade. It is for trading, not for investment as it's price decays overtime.

Just want to share my observations trading and monitoring STI warrants:


  1. I prefer to trade STI warrants issued by SGA as I find the pricing is reliable. Other market makers might use their own method for calculating STI, so their pricing might not follow the STI value you see. Also price movements don't really track STI correctly, but not for SGA.
  2. High volumes of STI warrants traded – due to people short selling either the call or put warrants when STI moves in the reverse direction. Why? They can make money faster as 1 bid = 4-6 STI points. Whichever warrant price jumps 1 bid faster, they will short/long that warrant. They buy in 200k to 300k lots, take profit every 1-2 bids.
  3. Trade warrants which are in the money or near the money because can make money faster, as explained in item 2 above.
  4. Choose warrants 2 months before expiry, stop trading 2 weeks before expiry.
  5. If you can read STI direction correctly, holding it overnight can make big profits when STI gap up or gap down. But very risky.


Are you aware of the above?

In Part 2, I'll share with you tools I use. Me no expert in warrants trading, just sharing my observations lah.

Regional Indices - Support Levels?

One global expert said watch the follow support levels:

SSE – 2312, if break then 2047

Hang Seng Index – 20102, if break then 17913

Nikkei – 12449, if break then 12011

Gold – 778, if break then 773, 740, 734, 714, 665, 650

“What is happening in Asia is a forerunner of what is coming to US and European markets. If you are informed on Asian markets you can have an informed view on the global decoupling story so beloved by economists that Asian savings and consumption will take up the slack created by a US slowdown.” John Needham

Friday, September 5, 2008

My Mum's Birthday is Always Remembered!

This coming Sunday, we are going to celebrate my mum's 84th birthday!

I've a big family network, more than 3 tables needed if we dine out. So it is going to burn my pocket! For more flexibility and togetherness, we have been catering food for the past years. Also better for my pocket lor!

This year I managed to get membership to Neo Garden, so entitled to 10% discount. We cater for buffet lunch for 30 persons, more than enough to have it for lunch, dinner and even Ta Pao! Neo Garden is famous for their curry chicken. Hmmm... yummy yummy!

When the market was bullish, I always managed to cover my cost by withdrawing from Mr Market's ATM. Hope the market will rebound next week or so, then I look for opportunity lor!

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Investing Without Emotions

Have you read Prof Chan Yan Chong's latest article in the online Share Investment Guide? Now, I can only read it on Wednesdays instead of Saturdays with my free online subscription. Maybe got paid subscribers complain?

I do agree with some of his views. Key points in my view:
  1. Wealth can affect Health – holding on to shares and seeing them dropping in value can affect one emotionally – mental health – so unhealthy!
  2. Super-rich stock up on cash – headlines in MYPAPER My Money Section. Prof Chan feels ideally one should hold 70% cash and 30% shares which are low in P/E.
  3. Need EQ to survive this bear market?
  4. 10 years holding power - Warren Buffet say you should not be owning stocks if you do not intend to hold them for more than a decade. Oh no, dun know whether I will still be alive!

Wow, 10 years holding power – that does coincide with my Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years! - 7 years to bottom + 3 years bull run = hopefully got profit?


"Mr Market has never failed to recover from every setback. But not so for individual stocks!” Never discuss your stocks with others as it will affect your emotions, thus your decisions.

Signs of Changing Stock Fundamentals

I monitor the following for potential signals of changing fundamentals in the stocks:
  1. Changes in major shareholdings
  2. Changes in CFO
  3. Huge Married Deals
  4. Changes in economic fundamentals in the sector.

Do you monitor these? Are there other signals you monitor?

Phillip CFDTrader is Launched!

Phillip Securities had launched the new Phillip CFDTrader for trading contracts for difference. It has stop limit orders which I've been waiting for. I'm going to attend the free training to learn more, then I can prepare to start short selling this bear market when the time is right.

To use the new system, I need to deposit 10k into the CFD account. Hmm.. I need to think about it, because interest earned on the CFD balance is lower than what I'm getting now for my trading account. The difference is 50% you know!

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

September 2008 Stock Market Forecast

September 7 to October 7, 2008

Fengshui: Yin Metal Rooster Month, could see possible market rebound, take profits and get out. Favourable industries/sectors : metal and water.

Financial Astrology: Highly volatile first half near Sept 3-7, market looking for direction in second half. Long term bearish market.

Technical Analysis: US Indices - Wave up finishing, wave down coming next, target 10850. Longer term target 9750.

ETF Seminars with AmFraser Securities

ETF Seminars - Free

September 20 – Using ETFs to build a disciplined investment portfolio

October 25 – Learn the techniques from ETF professional players

Email marketing@amfraser.com.sg

Asia Market Outlook Seminar

Free Seminar with Macquarie's Chief Strategist for Asia on:
  1. Current Macro Conditions in Asia
  2. Outlook for Singapore Market
  3. Tips & Strategies on Warrants


Dates: Sept 16 or 17, 6.30pm to 8.30pm


Register online

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Four Elements: Forces of Wealth Creation?

I received an invitation to attend a talk by Thomas Mathew, IPPFA on Four Elements: Forces of Wealth Creation. The Outline of the Seminar is as follows:

There are 4 elements in the world of Nature – water, wind, fire and earth. Different elements have different habits, behaviour and attitude towards wealth management and investment:

Water: Why they are seldom millionaires and what to do about it.

Wind: They get rich fast, but pay through costly mistakes, learn how to avoid the common traps.

Fire: They are usually millionaires but there are pitfalls they should avoid.

Earth: Over-analyzing makes them fearful, how to push past insecurity and what strategies to employ.

I've to pay $35 to attend but I'm not sure how much I can benefit from this 2-hour talk. I search the internet and cannot find anything about these four elements as explained above. At first I thought it might be related to Fengshui, but they say no. The only thing I can find is horoscopes under these four elements. Hmm, maybe talking about people under different horoscopes, another astrology thing?

Have you attended the talk? If so, can share?

Monday, September 1, 2008

Free Lanterns and Mooncakes!

Yesterday I brought my mum to Bugis. We passed by UOB, saw them having some promotion. I spinned the fortune wheel and got a free Lantern after spending about 5-10mins with the staff discussing their new structured deposit product. I don't like structured deposits, so told them I'll think about it just to get out. Hahaha, got a free Lantern for my niece's daughter!

Then we went down to Takashimaya. Wah! so many new varieties of mooncakes on sale. Got champagne flavour, black powder D24 durian, mango, papaya, mochi, etc. The only chance to eat all these varieties of mooncakes is to go for free tasting! Hahaha!

My mum likes the teochew ohni (yam), so I bought two ohni and two pumpkin ohni mooncakes for her using my Takashimaya vouchers. I can't remember where I got these free Takashimaya vouchers which don't have expiry dates. Anyway, free mooncakes for her! Hahaha!

George Lindsay Long Cycle: DJIA 20 Year Cycle

I just found and read an article which Ed Carlson wrote in 2014 about George Lindsay's Long Cycle, see extracts below: If point A = ...