S. M. A. R. T. Investing with TSK

Did you read 2 very interesting articles which appeared in yesterday's Business Times? Read my comments in blue. First Article - Asian markets to see 2009 rebound: S&P "We suspect that first-quarter 2009 is likely to reveal ugly corporate performances and this may dampen sentiment in first-half 2009. With economic growth anticipated to rebound in second-half 2009, we believe that equities are likely to have a strong fourth-quarter 2009 as the recovery becomes apparent and investors begin to re-rate stocks upward.” Hey, Mr Market always look ahead about 6-9 months, so how would the stock market perform in the first half of 2009? And if later the economy is not expected to recover so soon, what would happen to the stock market in the second half? Read my Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox ! Second Article: What might 2009 hold for Stocks? Summary of key points and my comments: If most experts agree that a recovery will occur in second half of 2009, the writer say buy

If you have been following my blog since I started end July 2008 or have read all my blog articles, I guess you already know my Approach to Beat the Market . My objective is to make money by focusing on the Big Picture . Me no value investor or long term investor if the Big Picture is no good. How do I know what's the Big Picture? I got my Crystal Ball to look into the future. Read: 1. Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years 2. Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox I use Fengshui for Risk Management and Market Timing . I'll only enter/exit based on Fengshui Forecast. So my Stock Pick Tips are only good for the Possible Bear Market Rally Ahead. When the Rally is over, we must exit all stocks, before the Big Bear Comes Back from Hibernation ! More tips & considerations? Read Stock Picks 1 , Stock Picks 2 , Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

So what are my criteria for stock picks to ride the Possible Bear Market Rally Ahead? 1. Fengshui Forecast - the best sector/industry which is likely to perform well in the next few months is Wood Industries – See Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox . The best category is Agriculture . I'm going for it. 2. Technical Analysis – some of my expert in S.M.A.R.T. List forecast that Oil is likely to rebound in the next few months. So, I'm might be looking at oil-related counters such as oil-rig business . 3. Only a Bear Market Rally – focus on STI component stocks , ie the blue chips for item 1 & 2. Any other tips and considerations? Hmm... Lookout for Part 3 lor! Read Stock Picks 1 , Stock Picks 3 , Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

Don't miss the Ox-portunity to make money when the Bear Market Rally comes! I'm getting ready to charge and ride on this Ox-portunity to ring in an Ox-picious Chinese New Year! Are you ready? Have you done your homework? Have you done your stock picks? What is your stock pick criteria? Oh, I have not shared with you another secret on my BMI . My BMI has a twin indicator. It also indicates how high the STI or the stock might go. This is one of my criteria for stock picks. I'll be focus this time: limit the number of stocks I'll hold or trade. When will the bear market rally come? Read Stock Picks 2 , Stock Picks 3 , Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

November 24 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast Fengshui : Unlikely to see strength Astrology : Market continues to be volatile Technical Analysis : US indices – might decline further This is shortened week for US market with quite a heavy schedule of important reports. Friday is a new moon. Will we continue to see rolling bottoms?

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, just staying invested in the stock market for the best six months and then switching into fixed income for the other six months had produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950. Wow! So which is the best six-month period of the year? Yes! November to April. Remember “ Sell in May and go away! ” So how do I decide when to enter and exit during this best six-month period? 1. Use the MACD signal. 2. Starting in Oct, monitor and wait for the MACD to turn positive, then enter the next day. 3. Starting in April, monitor and wait for the MACD to turn negative, then exit the next day. 4. If the market is down trending, entry is usually delayed until the market turns up, while exit point can come a month earlier. In 2007, the MACD turned positive on November 28, 2007 for S&P 500. 5. Use the MACD signals only to enter and exit as the market's favourable (October/November) and unfavourable (April/May) seasons approach. All other MACD

Having a better understanding of stock market dynamics should help increase the probability of winning the game? What games do stock traders and investors play? Daryl Guppy shared his views in an article published on CNBC website on Tuesday, November 18 2008, key points are: Traders and investors are constantly playing games in the market. Market volume is a record of such activities. Careful analysis of the relationship between price and volume tells us which game is in play. What games are out there? Pump & Dump : This is where desperate individuals play bully with a small stock and use small volume trades to “pump up” price. This price rise is irresistible to other traders and they buy in the hope the price rise will continue. They are tagged when the price manipulator “dump” or pulls out of the market. Hide and Seek : This is when an investor tries to build a large position in a stock without causing the price to rise. Catch that Rally : This is when investors capture a short b

Since Fengshui is my best risk management and market timing tool , Fengshui Forecast for 2009 will be featured in my Crystal Ball – Stock Market Forecast 2009: Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox Year 2009 is Yin Earth Ox Year or Ji Chou Year, with earth on top of earth or pure earth elements. It starts on February 4, 2009, ends on January 4, 2010. In general, earth will bring the mood of worry or meditation. So investors will be more cautious and practical. So 2009 will be a year of continual cooling down, showing signs of more stability and calmness. Despite the absence of fire element, the spring and summer months still show strong wood and fire influences bringing a steady upward trend in the stock market. In summary: First half will be better than second half Favourable Industries/Sectors = Wood, Metal Wood Industries/Sectors: eg. Agriculture, education, fashion, textile, furniture, publications, paper, media, newspaper and magazines, w

PM Lee had announced that the Government's Budget Statement, traditionally delivered in late February, will be unveiled a month earlier, before the Chinese New Year which falls on January 26, 2009. Will this make the stock market rally in January and February 2009, so we all can “Huat Ah” all the way into Chinese New Year? Hahaha, Gong Xi Fa Cai! Cai Yuan Kun Kun Lai! Also, did you notice that many analysts are forecasting a possible economic recovery in second half of 2009? As stock market is usually 6 to 9 months ahead of the economic cycle, will the stock market start to rally before then? I dun think the global economy will recover so soon. Even PM Lee said “We are already in recession and we expect a 'U-shaped' recovery with a fat 'U'. At the same time, we must be ready for more surprises.” He reckoned that the recession would last a year but beyond that there could be several years of slow growth before things get back on track. (source Business Times Nov 17,

November 17 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast Fengshui: First half weak, second half some possible strength Astrology: Volatile , expect huge price swing near end of week Technical Analysis: US indices – decline likely to resume, possible change late week. This week is options expiration week for US market. Weekly patterns indicate it is normally a positive week. Stock market crash is defined as a drop of 15%. US indices already dropped more than 15% post- election. We already witnessed a mini crash. Will the stock market crash continue for the next 3 weeks? Based on Fengshui, December starts on December 7, 2008.

Did you notice some stocks with bottoming signals ? Some brokers were reporting the same stocks with bottoming signals the past 2 weeks. Is it a sign that STI is bottoming out too? Beware that such chart patterns can fail. Beware of those reports which have business interest? Now STI might be trying to test the last low of 1474. Will it form a double bottom or will the last bottom be broken?

I managed to get a free copy of the Stock Trader's Almanac 2008 yesterday. Now I understand what this book is trying to say. It actually uses historical data to identify possible market trends or patterns by day, week, month, year and periods, etc and then predicts the possible market trend for the year. Below is a summary of the Forecast for 2009 that I found while surfing the internet. It ryhmes and riddles, so need to guess what it is trying to tell us hor! How the Markets Perform (Monthly Market Trends) "The following verses are excerpted from the beginning page of each month in the Stock Trader's Almanac 2009. Each verse offers insights on how markets have historically fared during each month of the year. October : October has killed many a bear. Buy tech stocks and soon wear a grin ear to ear. November : Astute investors always smile and remember. When stocks seasonally start soaring, and salute November. December : If Santa Claus should fail to call. Bears may come

I think it was about a month ago that I participated in this online survey by SharesInvestment.com. I thought it was a lucky draw type of survey, so did not blog about it. I was surprised to receive a Pair of Movie Tickets for participation in the survey. So it was every participation gets rewarded! Ha ha, I can take my mum for free movie liao! The tickets are valid for one year, so I can wait for good chinese movie to come, which my mum will like lor!

Kondratieff Cycle also known as K-Wave has a 60-year cycle, divided into 4 seasons of 15 years each. The 4 seasons can be associated with the 4 phases of the Economic Cycle and can be mapped into the Stock Market Cycle. Look at the chart below (left). We are now in the Winter Season, similar to 1929-1949 period! And if we convert the DOW chart to Gold$ mapped into the K-Wave, looks like there is more room to fall! See chart below (right). (Source: the longwaveanalyst)

How will the Dow or STI Chart for 2009 look like? My forecast, this is a possible preview of the Chart for 2009. It is the weekly Dow chart for 1929 to 1930. (click on image to zoom out) "The significant features are: The rapid fall is followed by a rebound and rebound failure; The primary rebound failure occurs rapidly with another market collapse; The pile driver low is retested within 12 months; Support, defined by the pile driver low, is not successful. The low of the market develops in 1932, about three years after the 1929 crash. The key trigger is the failure of support set by the pile driver low. The disaster is that it takes 25 years for the market to exceed the high of 380 set in July 1929. This is why the Depression is referred to as a generational event. The current situation has the potential to have the same generational impact.” Where is Dow or STI heading now? "The pink circle shows the comparable position of today’s market. This is a period of high volatility

Will US and the Global Economy be in a Recession or Depression? The stock market can give the clue? How? Look at the Chart patterns! Below comments were extracted from Daryl Guppy's Article published in CNBC website yesterday: 1. “A recession is an economic slowdown that may last for 6 to 18 months. A depression is an economic pullback that may last from two to four years.” 2. “In a recession, the market will develop strong trending behavior many months prior to the official confirmation of the end of a recession. This recovery provides trend trading opportunities. In a depression the market will develop a long-term consolidation pattern. This is an investment period that lays the foundations for generational fortunes. Trend-trading opportunities do not develop for several years. This consolidation and accumulation phase concentrates on creating income flow from dividends. The fundamental end of a depression is not recognized until many months after the market has already reacted.

Still remember the new SGX product I mentioned in August 2008 Article “ ETF, Alternative to Stock Picks ” ? Yes, finally, Singapore Exchange Limited (SGX) announced on November 5, 2008 that it will launch Extended Settlement (ES) Contracts on 23 January 2009, previously referred to as Single Stock Derivatives (SSDs). ES Contract is a forward contract traded on the SGX Securities Market: Can Buy or Short Sell the underlying stock listed on SGX Can settle up to 35 days later No finance charge. Looks like better than trading warrants or CFD – no time decay, no finance charge, more price transparency (not controlled by market maker). Best of all, can short sell, can profit from Bear Markets. Hope it includes STI ETF, then I can short sell lor! I'm going to attend the free seminar to find out more. Interested? Register online at SGX (seems there is some problem with the system, so I register via email)

Using the Moon as Market Timing Indicator? Yes, Trading with the Moons. "You can buy Full Moons and sell New Moons, just like you can buy in November and sell in May. The Moons can be used as a guide to mark market turns when the markets get very emotional and volatile. Full Moons are statistically lows.” November 13 is Full Moon (my lunar calendar marks November 12th as full moon) "This was the 79th year anniversary of the final November 13th low of the October 29, 1929 crash. If we see a deep low near this Full Moon of November 13th, then the next New Moon of November 27th will most likely be a high. But if we do not see enough selling by the Full Moon, we may continue to decline towards the New Moon as well.” Above quotes taken from one astro expert. Let's watch the market, see if Trading with the Moons work with Singapore Stock Market. Oh, today is 11/11/08, what can happen?

November 10 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast Fengshui : Some strength but volatile Astrology : Volatile, likely to move sideways Technical Analysis : US indices – stocks might fall Monday, likely move sideway then decline. November 2008 Monthly Stock Market Forecast – Technical Analysis had been updated. Be careful, likely Stock Market Crash in November . Read the Updated November 2008 Stock Market Forecast . November 13 is the 79th anniversary of the Oct 29, 1929 Stock Market Crash. Remember it was the post crash low – see A replay of 1929 Stock Market Crash . Will it be the low for 2008? Or will the low occur in December 2008, tracking the history of 1987 Stock Market Crash?

One source said Commodity & Oil has a 30-Year Cycle: 10 years up + 20 years down = 30-Year Cycle History of Highs: 1860, 1890, 1920, 1950, 1980 and 2010? So, is Commodity & Oil still in Bull Run? Will it top out in 2010? Is it safe to invest in Commodity & Oil related stocks?

Who say Stock Market Crash cannot be predicted? We witnessed the worst Stock Market Crash in 2008, Black October, that was forecasted here ! How did I do it? Oops, I mean how my expert resources ( S.M.A.R.T. List ) did it? Fengshui has a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on the 5 elements. Financial Astrology has a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on planetary arrangements. Technical Experts have a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on effective technical indicators, chart patterns, elliott wave and fibonacci. And not forgetting the Hindenburg Omen ! The Art of Foresight – the # 1 Secret Ingredient of Success! Get Early Warnings, Get Confidence to Take Wise Risks, Preserve and Grow Wealth through Foresight!

Interested to know the Stock Market Forecast for December 2008 early? What about January 2009? Ok, if there is sufficient interest, I might consider working on it and sending such Stock Market Forecast out early via email. An additional bonus – Sector and Stock Picks which is most critical to ride Bear Market Rallies! All these will not be published in my blog. You can register your interest and support for my effort via Get Email Updates (on right sidebar) and joining the Free EWI Club (on right sidebar below Get Email Updates). I'm a EWI Club member and the best benefit from this Free Membership is when EWI declares a Free Week. Then I can access the Subscriber's Area for Free during that Free Week. The rest of the freebies you already know lor. Good stuff that give Foresight as I see it! Thank you for your continued support. (Updated Nov 17 - offer had lapsed)

Read this article by Dr Doom (Nouriel Roubini) published on Nov 4, 2008, “The Rising Risk of Hard Landing in China: The Two Engines of Global Growth – U.S. and China – are Now Stalling”. Key points in the conclusion are: Risk of a hard landing in China sharply rising Global economy already headed towards a global recession U.S. contraction now dramatically accelerating First engine of global growth – the U.S. on the consumption side – now already shut down Second engine of global growth – China on the production side – on its way to stalling With 2 main engines of global growth now in serious trouble, a global hard landing now almost certainty Hard landing in China have severe effects on growth in emerging market economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America as Chinese demand for raw materials and intermediate inputs has been a major source of economic growth for emerging markets and commodity exporters Recent sharp fall in commodity prices and near collapse of Baltic Freight index are

November 7 to December 6, 2008 Fengshui : Yin Water Pig Month. Pig is a water element. So, water energy is extremely strong this month, that is the biggest enemy of the stock market. Water extinguishes Fire, so expect further stock market correction. Favourable industries/sectors : earth, wood and water. Financial Astrology : Market likely to rebound in second half (calendar month). Be cautious in long term bearish market. Technical Analysis : US Indices – Uncertainties in technical indicators. Stock can either crash in next few weeks or move higher. (Updated Nov 9 - likely stock market crash in next few weeks, might break Oct 10 low, if break 7882 then 7197 might be tested) Now, that's the problem with technical analysis – uncertainties in forecasting the short term direction. That's why I decided to look for alternatives and found Fengshui and Financial Astrology. Anyway, lookout for November 10 Weekly Update, hopefully directions would be clear. Read Dow Direction After Pres

2008 was the worst in history! It is the fourth time that Dow had lost more than 1% the day after a Presidential Election Day, since 1900 and the worst in % terms. Coincidentally, all the other 3 times occurred during the Great Depression and won by Democrat. And how did Dow performed for the rest of the year in those 3 situations? 1932 -4.51% day after, -2.82% rest of year 1940 -2.39% day after, -0.64% rest of year 1948 -3.85% day after, -2.83% rest of year 2008 -5.05% day after, ??? (Source: B.I.G.) What do you think will happen to Dow for rest of 2008? Will history repeat? What do you think will happen to Dow after that?

Do you read the daily Chinese Newspaper Zaobao ? Err.. my chinese not very good, words too chim I dun understand. But can roughly figure out what it is talking, at least can recognise the numbers lor. Recently, my sister informed me there are technical analysis articles in Zaobao . So I try to follow, reading online, looking for English Headlines then switch to read the detailed Chinese Articles . Below is a copy of “Technical Analysis on STI” published on Monday, November 3, 2008. 　　 　本栏于上周一（27日）曾预估指数目前正处“肯跌低”周期，其特性为跌势猛、跌幅大，过后长时间在低位波动。10月28日指数更是一度下挫至 1473.77点，幸好当天以1666.49点闭市，遂成了“一日转向”讯号，上周五（31日）又以1794.20点闭市，也于其每周一杆图中出现“转向 ”讯号，因此，估计短期内当向上回扯，并填补介于1894.87点至1920.79点及介于1991.07点至2059.39点间的缺口，而整个回扯很可能在11月中旬结束，过后指数当重新进入跌势。投资者宜乘此次回扯脱身，正是“三十六着走为上着”。 Most important point – correction might occur mid-November, 2008. On October 25, he wrote “DOW might bottom in 2013” . The rest I cannot figure out what it is talking, 2016 was mentioned. If you understand chinese, remember to follow his articles.

In 2003, we had the Asian SARS which affected Asia, then spread to the rest of the world. Now, we have the American SARS – "Severe American Recession Syndrome” Oops, this term is taken from Daryl Guppy's article posted on CNBC Website. He wrote: "We use the monthly S&P 500 chart to measure the temperature and track the recovery.” It might take 1 -2 years to recover. "Market always fall more rapidly than they rise, simply because you do not need money to be able to lose money. The rebound from the recession target at 800 will be slow because new money is required to fuel a new uptrend. Any rebound from the depression targets will be difficult because the quantum of wealth destruction requires a new generation to develop new wealth before money is available for a new bull market.” Refer to Chart Patterns and Time for chart of S&P 500 and depression targets.

I read 2 reports previously in August, issued by the company of Robert Prechter ( Elliott Wave International ), the author of the book " Conquer the Crash ”. The reports provided a forecast of DOW using Cycle Theory, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci numbers. So I'm recommending EWI's latest, Credit Crisis Survival Kit. Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit Before it became the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression, the credit crisis used to be an arcane topic discussed only in financial publications. Now, it's on every computer, television screen, and front page of every newspaper in the world. It may have you worried about what you can do to get through it with your personal finances still intact. What can you do about it? Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm, put together this free resource featuring 15 hand-picked reports and videos that will show you: 1. How we got into this

Technical analysts claim they can predict the market psychology by looking at chart patterns. However, my observation is they are unable to predict the time the chart patterns will complete. Some technical analysts use additional parameters to predict the time of market turns. Again, they have difficulty predicting the time the chart patterns will complete. But when I use Fengshui forecast together with the chart patterns, the market timing was perfect. Fengshui can forecast the market psychology. So, it takes time for the chart patterns to form and complete. A lot of patience is required before we can confirm the continued downturn or reversal in the chart patterns. 2 famous trend reversal patterns are the Head and Should Pattern and the M Pattern or Double Top Pattern . Below is an analysis done by Daryl Guppy on October 27, 2008: "The DOW is using the slope of the Head and Shoulder pattern neckline as a resistance level. This will limit the ability for the market to recover.

November 3 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast Fengshui : Market continues to be weak and struggling Astrology : Extremely negative especially Nov 3 (history of serious worldwide sell-off on such planetary arrangements) Technical Analysis : US indices – stocks might fall Monday, depending on US election, huge movements up or down. This week, Wall Street's got heavy schedule of market moving reports, the big one is on Friday – monthly job numbers. Then Tuesday is US Election. So, is another stock market crash coming?

The words of market wisdom, "Sell in May and go away" , proved to be spot on again! Also known as the "Halloween Indicator" , stock market returns are usually higher in the November-April period than those in the May-October period. One study noted that this pattern worked after both the Crash of 1929 and 1987. People dun understand why this pattern occurred, though they have some explanations which do not appear to explain this puzzle convincingly. Hmm.. think I can solve this puzzle now! It's got to do with Fengshui & Stock Market ! So should we buy in November 2008, then sell in May 2009 and go away? Should we observe this market wisdom for the next 7 or more Bear Years? Hmm.. Bear "Kor Kor" (chinese meaning brother), please take a break and have a kit kat!

One astro expert predicts the 2008 version or Part 2 of the 911 crash. He said the current planetary arrangement is similar to the 1929 to 1932 planetary arrangement. And November 4, 2008 has similar planetary arrangement as that of 911. So, will a terrorist attack occur on November 4, 2008 - US President Election Day? Would the Election be postponed? He also predicts something might happen on 11/11/08 - this date is related to 11/11/11. (November 11, 2008 is a Holiday in US) Will we continue to see a replay of the 1929 Stock Market Crash ? A post crash low in November 2008?