Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Daryl Guppy -Shanghai Composite Downside Targets

Wow! Even Daryl Guppy said his technical indicators failed to warn of the the collapse in the Shanghai Composite! He wrote a long analysis of the Shanghai Composite on Nov 22 2010. Summary of key points below:

  1. The reaction across the Shanghai Index was brutal. The move away from the 3,180 resistance level was swift and powerful. The continued market retreat has confirmed an important change in market conditions following the global financial crisis. Trend stability is no longer reliable. In modern markets, trends develop more rapidly and continue for less time, trends end more rapidly.

  2. This suddenness of trend change is duplicated across regional and international markets. The 4% fall in the Australian index or 5% drop in the Hang Seng is not the same degree as the 10% fall in the Shanghai Index, but the behaviour pattern of sudden trend breaks is similar. Investors and traders must be prepared to act with equal speed to protect profits and deal with what is, rather than waiting for explanations for the market activity.

3. The collapse in the Shanghai Index developed very rapidly. There were no warning signals created by technical analysis indicators.

4. The move below support at 2,940 was followed by a fall below the lower edge of the long-term Guppy multiple moving average (GMMA). This indicates a significant change in the trend and support for the uptrend. The long-term group of moving averages in the GMMA shows the thinking of investors. The long-term group has begun to turn down. This shows that investors have joined the selling. The short-term GMMA has also penetrated the long-term GMMA and this confirms the trend change.

5. The fall below 2,940 support and the lower edge of the long-term GMMA confirm that this uptrend has ended. This is not a temporary retreat in an uptrend. This is a change in the direction of the trend. There is a weak support area near 2,800.

6. Next support near 2,700. In a gently falling market, this level will provide good support for the development of a trend rebound. This is a rapidly falling market, so there is a high probability that the 2,700 support level will also fail.

7. Next strong support is the very long-term consolidation band between 2,580 and 2,700. The Shanghai Index moved inside this consolidation band from July to October. This consolidation activity created a strong support area, so there is a higher probability the market momentum will decline as the market moves into this region.

8. There is a high probability the Shanghai Index will fall below 2,800 and test the 2,700 support level. A rebound from 2,700 will develop if the rate of the market fall is reduced in the next few days.

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