Sunday, June 27, 2010

June 28 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

June 28 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market unlikely to see strength this week.

Financial Astrology: Markets likely to be highly volatile. Will markets rally or reverse after June 26 Lunar Eclipse.

Technical Analysis: US markets: Markets at critical juncture. Will it rebound or decline and break the Head & Shoulder neckline?

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Double-Dip Risk, No Longer Talk Only?

Prominent names are talking of possible double-dip!

Below is summary of key points extracted from a recent US newspaper column posted by an Expert Stock Market Timer:

George Soros: who made his billions by being ahead of important trend changes in both directions for many decades, is particularly concerned about the ‘austerity’ measures being enacted by governments around the world, including in the U.S., to tackle record budget deficits. “We have just entered Act II . . . . The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real and the crisis is far from over . . . 1930’s style budget deficits are essential as counter-cyclical policies [to pull economies out of recession], yet many governments are now moving to reduce their budget deficits under pressure from financial markets. This is liable to push the global economy into a double-dip.” It is “inevitable” that Europe will be back in recession by next year.

Paul Krugman: winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2008, who provided a timely warning in advance of the 2008-2009 recession, warned of a next recession in a New York Times column last week. “Suddenly creating jobs is out, condemning deficits is in. Many economists, myself included, regard this turn to austerity as a huge mistake. It raises memories of 1937, when FDR’s premature attempt to balance the budget plunged the recovering economy back into severe recession. . . . . Economic policy around the world has taken a major wrong turn and the odds of a prolonged economic slump are rising by the day.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: while still forecasting the U.S. economy will continue to grow “at a moderate pace”, said for the first time last week that he “does not rule out the possibility of a double-dip recession.”

Warren Buffett says a “terrible problem” lies just ahead for municipal bonds, that with plunged real estate values and high unemployment, too many cities and towns are just not able to collect enough in taxes and fees to handle expenditures and also make payments on their bonds.

Meredith Whitney: a prominent bank analyst at Oppenheimer in 2007, became famous with her accurate bearish call on Citigroup in October, 2007, and even before the problems that befell Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers was quoted as saying, “It feels like I’m in the epicenter of biggest financial crisis in history.” “I have the strongest conviction that there’s going to be a double-dip in housing.” “The issue of the municipal bond market is one that’s very scary to me because you have so many states with under-funded budgets – underfunded by two and a half times the level they were underfunded after the dot-com bubble burst. . . . People worry about the federal budget deficit, but the state budgets are more urgent since 49 states are constitutionally required to have balanced budgets.” In other words, while the federal government can simply print more money and take on even more debt by issuing more bonds, states must cut jobs and programs, and raise taxes in order to balance their budgets, austerity measures unfriendly to the economy.

Wow! Now here's evidence of possible risk of double-dip: Look at the Chart, ECRI WLI Growth had gone negative! Did you notice DOW Chart has similar Chart Pattern as the ECRI WLI? : a rebound in Mar 2009 and a drop in April 2010?

Wow! Crisis = Opportunity Ahead? Do you know when?

Sunday, June 20, 2010

June 21 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

June 21 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market likely to see strength this week, except for June 21 & 22.

Financial Astrology: Markets likely to be highly volatile. Will markets continue to rally or reverse? It is likely to reverse on June 26 Lunar Eclipse.

Technical Analysis: US markets: Will markets continue to rally or reverse?

According to Stock Trader's Almanac:

  1. Week after June Triple Witching Week (TWW) is bearish. There has not been an up week after since 1998.

  2. June TWW tend to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets.

  3. Since 1991, 9 of 10 up June TWWs were followed by declines the following week.

Saturday, June 19, 2010

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Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Where DOW, S&P500, Global Markets Heading?

“It is a good time to take profits in long positions in Western markets. It is also a good time to buy into the China market as the rebound signals are confirmed.”

Wow! Says Who? It's Daryl Guppy, who wrote a long article in the recent issue of The Edge Singapore! Below is a summary of key points to note:

  • CHINA leads again, the first major economy that attempted to unwind the stimulus packages implemented during the global financial crisis, in terms of the potential impact of this process.

  • The broad pattern of behaviour — rapid long rally recovery followed by consolidation — is initiated by the Shanghai market, which is followed by other markets with a lag of six to 18 weeks. This is simply an observation of a broad and correlated behavioural relationship, not implying Shanghai market behaviour influences the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW)’s behaviour.

  • Shanghai Index’s fall below the lower edge of the equilateral triangle was followed by a rapid decline of 17%. Hmm... a high probability that similar decline in DOW and other markets will also be followed by a rapid decline.

  • Shanghai market gives us an idea of the shape and behaviour of the much-anticipated double dip. If Shanghai market is successful in developing support near 2,481, then it suggests that the double dip in Western markets will also not probe the March 2009 lows. This advance behavioural warning gives traders and investors invaluable information when it comes to managing the current Western market’s weakness.

  • Shanghai Index continues to develop the classic breakout-consolidation pattern: a retest of the support area near 2,481, a double bottom, which is often a signal for a strong recovery.

  • However, this development comes with three warnings:
1. In 2008, the bottom was created near 1,670. The current double-bottom pattern is not a true bottom because it is higher than the 2008 low of 1,670. A development of strong, new trend breakouts is signalled by a sustained move above 2,680.

2. The 2,481 mark is not a historical support level, however index activity over the next several days may confirm this as a support level.

The nearest support level is at 2,300. There is a strong probability the market will temporarily dip towards the historical support at 2,300 and then rebound rapidly. This dip could develop as a one-day fall or rebound, or a three-day pattern. The key features confirming the temporary nature of this dip are the reduction in volume as the market falls and the increase in buying volume as the index rebounds. A rapid dip below 2,481 does not invalidate the development of the consolidation pattern between 2,481 and 2,680. A fall below 2,481, followed by a fast rebound above that level, is a buying signal: a sign of desperation sell-off.

3. With the long-term equilateral triangle chart pattern, the downside target is near 2,230. This level is located near the middle of a broad historical consolidation pattern. The market could fall rapidly towards this level and then quickly develop a rebound. This is another type of desperation sell-off. A low volume during the fall and an increasing volume during the rebound are a strong buy signal.

Where is Straits Times Index Heading?

Daryl Guppy wrote an analysis on the Straits Times Index – June 16 2010.

Summary of Keys Points to note:

  1. STI is showing a successful rebound from support level near 2660.

  2. This is a rally rebound, not a trend rebound, in the long term sideways consolidation pattern.

  3. The RSI can be used to generate rally entry and exit signals. A move above 70 on the RSI is an exit signal. A move below, and then above the 30 area is an entry signal for this style of rally trading.

  4. The danger with this consolidation pattern remains on the downside. The width of the trading band is measured and projected downwards. This gives a downside target near 2400, which is just above the long term historical support near 2300.

  5. The most bullish outcome is a return to the sideways consolidation that has been in place for several months. This also sees a return to range bound rally and retreat trading.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

June 14 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

June 14 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market likely to see strength this week, except for June 17 & 18.

Financial Astrology: Markets likely to be highly volatile. What effect will the Lunar Eclipse on June 26 make now and thereafter?

Technical Analysis: US markets: Is Wave 3 of 3 down coming next?

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Unit Trust 0% Sales Charge @dollarDEX!

Wow! Unit Trusts Market is getting more competitive in Singapore!

All CPFIS transactions at 0% sales charge!

Yes! All funds purchased at dollarDEX under CPFIS from 8 June 2010 to 31 July 2010 will be at 0% sales charge!

Wow! DollarDEX also has CPF IA Status (so CPFIS cost is lower).

But, is it Time to Buy? Will Time to BUY fall within this promotion period?

Hmm... I will open an account with dollarDEX first, anyway it is free for account opening. Then wait lor to see if I can take advantage of this promotion!


Sunday, June 6, 2010

June 7 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

June 7 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market unlikely to see strength this week. June 9 might have some strength

Financial Astrology: Markets likely to be highly volatile. Will the Bullish Planets win the battle or will it help the Bearish Planets win the battle? Will markets drop or rally another 1000 points?

Technical Analysis: US markets: When the right shoulder of the H&S pattern is complete, a break of neckline confirms further decline.

June 2010 Stock Market Forecast

June 6 to July 6, 2010

This is the Yang Water Horse month. Water dominating the first half of the month brings control and dampens the financial market. Market is likely to be volatile. Equity markets likely to be weak in first half, likely to see strength during the second half of the month.

Favourable industries/sectors: Water, earth and fire

Financial Astrology:

June is likely to be a highly volatile month. Remember middle of year is likely to be bearish.

Watch these dates:

June 6 – Jupiter enter Aries

June 7 – Mars enter Virgo

June 8 – Jupiter Uranus Conjunction

June 12 – New Moon

June 21 – Summer Solstice

June 26 – Full Moon, Lunar Eclipse

Technical Analysis:

US Market: Though there is no Hindenburg Omen (HO) yet, another indicator similar to HO indicates a possibility of stock market crash coming over the next several months.

When the Head & Shoulder Patterns are complete and the neckline is broken, markets are likely to continue the waterfall decline down to the target of the H&S pattern.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Crystal-Ball-Like Technical Tools Part2

How reliable are these Crystal-Ball-Like Technical Tools?

I prefer Crystal-Ball-Like Technical Tool #2. It is so powerful and amazingly accurate for long term forecasts as well as short term. But it works with much higher reliability for long term forecasting. That's exactly what I'm looking for. Yes, Focus on the Big Picture and Big Profits will follow!

So how powerful and reliable is Crystal-Ball-Like Technical Tool #2?

  1. Starting with 2000 Top, it gave the 2002 Bottom, 2007 Top, 2009 Bottom and 2010 Top

  2. Starting with 2002 Bottom, it gave the 2007 top, 2009 Bottom and 2010 Top

  3. Starting with 2007 Top, it gave the 2009 Bottom, 2010 Top

Whether I apply the Tool on Dow, S&P or Straits Times Index (STI), gave the above same results!

Wow! Wow! Wow!

So, Where are Global Markets Heading Next?

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

NTUC Income Share Pays 9% Dividend!

Wow! A record dividend payout for NTUC Income Shareholders!

I just received my dividend statement for Financial Year 2009.

NTUC Income had approved payment of a dividend of 6% plus a special dividend of 3% = total 9% for FY 2009. Wow! Money will be credited to my bank account on June 3 2010.

Hurray! On top of this, NTUC Income also rewarded policy holders with special bonus for their insurance policies plus a special Cash Bonus Payout!


Best Capital Protected Stock in Singapore!

Interested to find out more about NTUC Income Shares? Read this latest as of this posting.

Should I keep my Whole Life Policies?

I have a whole life policy (death/tpd) and another 3 for CI/TPD/death. I no longer need insurance for death as I do not have any depe...