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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Sell & Go Away in May, Singapore!

Daryl Guppy said “Sell in May and Go Away in 2010, Singapore!”, in an article he wrote on May 25 2010.

Daryl said “this saying is surprisingly most accurate in the Singapore market”:

  1. Singapore market traders who follow this advice miss good profits in 45% of the past 20 years.

  2. The 55% probability of a falling period does justify following the advice.

  3. However, this result is skewed by a cluster of badly performing years prior to 2002. Here there was a 77% probability that selling in May was the correct action.

  4. The worst year was a loss of 43% in 2008 where selling in May made sense.

  5. The best year was 2009 with a 41% return.

  6. For 2010, the market this year could just develop the conditions to make this saying come true.

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