Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Asia Stock Market Rally is Over!

Have you read EWI's February 2010 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Report?

Extracts from Bloomberg (February 1 2010):

Asian stocks may decline for months after forming a “top” that signals the end of a 10-month rally, according to Elliott Wave International Inc.

Benchmark indexes across the region have completed either three- or five-wave patterns showing that their gains are over according to EWI's February Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Report. The rally’s duration and divergence in both momentum and sentiment also signal a downturn, it said.

With the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index having just broken below an important uptrend line. Elliott Wave International said. “It’s time to turn bearish.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, Singapore’s Straits Times Index, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average of Japan completed three-wave cycles. Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and India completed five-leg formations in January.

The 311 days it took to reach last month’s high from the March low is 62.8 percent of the index’s 495-day decline between 2007 and 2009, Elliott Wave International said. That’s just five days more than the time taken for a 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement.

Meanwhile, the index’s relative strength index, an indicator of momentum, peaked in January at a lower level than that set earlier in the rally, while the Nikkei 225 Daily Sentiment Index also reached a high that was lower than previous levels seen during the advance.

“Excessive bullishness is in fact bearish from a contrarian perspective, and sentiment divergences, like momentum divergences, are common at tops”, according to the report.

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