Sunday, January 31, 2010

February 1 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

February 1 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market unlikely to see strength February 1 and 2.


Financial Astrology: With Saturn Pluto square on Jan 31, will markets reverse short term trend or collapse in a serious free fall?



Technical Analysis: US markets: Phase 3 down started with Wave 1 down. Minor Wave 1 down looks likely completed with 5 waves down. Next is minor Wave 2 up then minor Wave 3 down.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

December Low Indicator Warning!

According to Stock Trader's Almanac:


“Pay more attention to the December Low Indicator. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!”


When the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign.


Dow closed below its December 2009 closing low of 10285.97 (Dec 8 09), triggering the dreaded December Low Indicator.


Since 1950 when the December Low Indicator has triggered, the Dow has fallen an additional 10.9% on average. This was precisely the case the past two years with the Dow losing an additional 42.1% in 2008 and 17.6% in 2009 before surpassing the previous high. Excluding 2008’s drop, the largest of them, reduces the average subsequent drop to about 10% -- that would put the Dow at about 9155.


The most prudent course of action is to refrain from major new purchases, tighten stops, take any sizable short term profits and assess the conditions at week’s end.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Next Bear Market Phase Starting: Prechter

(Extracts from Reuters Report January 25 2010)


Prechter said: "We probably have begun the next phase of the bear market.”


The next leg of a bear market in stocks has probably started and gold and corporate bonds are likely to slide as the U.S. economy suffers long-term weakness.


The U.S. S&P 500 index has fallen about 5 percent since hitting a 15-month peak on January 19 as some investors started to worry about the possibility of a double-dip recession.


Although many stock analysts expect a short term pullback of about 10 or 15 percent in U.S. stocks, Prechter, known for his bearish views, expects a steeper, longer term fall.


For investors in equities, this is "the last chance to get out with the Dow in quintuple digits”, Prechter added.


Now, along with stocks, corporate bonds are set to fall to lower levels than in the market panic of 2008, he said.


NO GLITTER FOR GOLD?


If deflation -- an environment in which prices of everything from houses, to cars, to wages fall -- does set in, gold, which in some respects is a hedge against inflation, is likely to fall precipitously in value, he expects.


Gold "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if hasn't already," said Prechter." I think it could drop at least 40 percent from its peak value," he added.


DOLLAR SILVER LINING?


Prechter reiterated his longstanding advice to investors to shelter in Treasury bills until between about 2014 and 2016 when he expects the unwinding of the biggest debt bubble in history will start to abate.


"The bear market (in stocks) has a number of years left to run: four to six more years," he said. "It makes it prudent to stay in the safest cash equivalents till it's over," and perhaps keep some money under the mattress as well in case of problems in the banking system, he said.


Over about the next year, the dollar should continue gaining against the euro Prechter said. In October, Prechter said the dollar was bottoming.




Monday, January 25, 2010

January 25 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

January 25 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to be volatile with strength Jan 25-27 then slow down rest of week.


Financial Astrology: Market likely to be bearish with Saturn Pluto square ahead on Jan 31.



Technical Analysis: US markets: Phase 3 down started with Wave 1 down. When subwave 3 down is complete, look for subwave 4 up then subwave 5 down.

Alternate view: if decline is in 5 waves, likely bear market started. If decline is in 3 waves, likely Wave B up might be bigger.



Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Scary Voyage to C Bottom into 2014?

Wow! Have you read Bob Prechter's January Elliott Wave Theorist?

A scary forecast of what the rest of Supercycle Wave C might look like in the coming months and years!

Coming months? Yes, he had called the top in Dow on January 14, 2010, ie Phase 3 down had started, but there is “or” in the statement.

How Scary is the Forecast? Read January issue of Elliott Wave Theorist lor!

Hahaha, I managed to get a peek into the Dow Chart Forecast posted by 2 bloggers (haha, second blogger followed with the post when he read the first blogger posting the chart!).

So how Scary is it?

Wave 3 down target 1000 in 2011?
Wave 4 sideways above 1000
Wave 5 down below 500 in 2014?

(Form is paramount, Price is approximate, time is least reliable)

Have you read 17-Year Stock Market Cycle (US)?

What does your forecast look like?

Monday, January 18, 2010

17-Year Stock Market Cycle (US)

Remember the Kondratieff Cycle or K-Wave article I wrote in 2008? Oops! I forgot what I wrote!


Now I have a better understanding and here's the update: Kondratieff Cycle is a 70-year cycle, comprising 4 seasons of average 17 years each. The US Stock Market is now in the 4th Winter Season (2000-2020).


Look at the K-Wave Dow Chart: do you notice the periods match closely with Mr Buffett's observation and forecast for 2000-2017?


W.D. Gann said: “History repeats itself. The future is but a repetition of the past. Get past history, find out what cycle, then predict the curve for the future.”


So now you have the Big Picture! Can you predict the curve for 2000-2017?


Lookout for Part 3 if you want to see the answer!


Sunday, January 17, 2010

January 18 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

January 18 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to slow down. Jan 20-22 likely volatile.


Financial Astrology: Will markets continue to decline?


Technical Analysis: US markets: Rally likely topped out and Wave C down might have started.



What my Stock Market Time Clocks say?

Jan 21 = 0.618 of time travelled from October 2007 top to March 9 2009. US market indices already hit 0.618 retracement. Has Time for rally run out?


Elliott Wave Count Update:

There are 2 camps:

  1. Wave B up already top out, next is Wave C down. Already hit 0.618 time on Jan 14 2010, price as well.

  2. Wave 4 down then wave 5 up before Wave B ends.

Which Wave count is correct?
Be careful not to be caught in the Bull Trap!

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Most Important Investment Report of 2010


Free 13-page Report: Robert Prechter's firm Elliott Wave International has just released its annual "Most Important Report of 2010." Inside, Prechter delivers hard facts, eye-opening charts and straightforward commentary to help you take advantage of the opportunities – and avoid the dangerous pitfalls – that you will face in 2010. You'll get analysis and forecasts you can act on, and you'll learn what the government's unprecedented involvement in the financial markets will mean for your portfolio in 2010 and beyond. Learn more and download your free report now..


Please recall with me the prevailing investor sentiment from this time last year …


U.S. stocks had been in strong decline for more than a year. Some of the most celebrated bulls had turned into bears, and the few bears that did exist before the downturn had become even more bearish. The Daily Sentiment Index for the S&P registered an astonishing 3 percent bulls -- virtually no one was betting on the upside -- and the bleakest of forecasts for 2009 called for nothing short of financial apocalypse.


But well-known contrarian analyst Robert Prechter took the opposite side of the trade. Prechter, a long-time bear, emerged as a solitary bullish voice among overwhelming bearishness. After closing out a record short recommendation that gained 800 downside points in the S&P, he issued the following bullish warning to bears:


"The market is compressed, and when it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short."


In the following days, the mainstream media reported that "perma-bear" Robert Prechter had turned bullish -- the reports were only half true. Prechter had, in fact, turned intermediate-term bullish, but he stopped short of recommending average investors to jump back in. Why?


Prechter saw something on the horizon that the shortsighted mainstream market watchers did not, which brings me to the untold portion of this story …


In Prechter's eyes, the bear market is far from over, and what he expects to happen after the current rally ends is significantly important to how you position your portfolio now.


Prechter's firm, Elliott Wave International, is now offering for a limited time The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2010. Inside, Prechter reveals his big-picture outlook for U.S. stocks and the U.S. economy. The eye-opening 13-page report, originally published for paying subscribers to his Elliott Wave Theorist, examines the government's unprecedented involvement in the financial markets and private enterprise. It reveals what's already taken place in candid detail then focuses you on what the government's measures will actually do for the U.S. financial markets and economy.


Be assured, this report delivers analysis you will not find on the front page of The New York Times or Wall Street Journal. It delivers independent insights from the man who saw the bear market -- and today's bear market rally -- coming when virtually no one else did.


But hurry! This free 13-page report is available for a limited-time only due to its timely content.


Please learn more about and download the free 13-page Most Important Report for 2010 now.



About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International

Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Warren Buffett Forecast 17 Lean Years (2000-2017)

Wow! Warren Buffett knows and understands US Stock Market Cycles.

I've attended a few talks about “Investing like Warren Buffet” but have never heard these speakers talk about US Stock Market Cycles mentioned by Warren Buffett.


Are you a value investor like Mr Buffett? Do you know or understand Stock Market Cycles?


Do you know the definition of “Investing”?


Mr Buffett said “investing is laying out money today to receive more money tomorrow”. If the Stock Market is going nowhere for 17 years, are you investing if you buy and hold long long? Wah, more than 17 years, maybe!


“Mr Buffett observed (reported in Fortune Magazine in 1999, 2001, 2002) that the Stock Market went practically nowhere between end of 1964 to 1981. Then it boomed from 1982 to 1999. Observing the cycle of 17 fat years and 17 lean years (Bible and Joseph Cycle state 7 years), Mr Buffett forecast that 17 years from 2000 to 2017 would likely be lean as well.”


A handful of “Gann” experts had been talking about this 17 year cycle in US Stock Markets. Wah, also starting from 2000!


Lookout for Part 2 -The 17-Year Stock Market Cycle!


Monday, January 11, 2010

Fengshui Outlook 2010 Year of Tiger

The Year of the Golden Tiger starts on February 4, 2010.

This is the Yang Metal Tiger Year. Yang Metal over Yang Wood. Tiger = Yang Wood. Inside the Tiger, there is Wood, Fire and Earth elements. Tiger is the mother of Fire = Wood = seed of Fire.

Unfortunately, Metal destroys Wood, so this is a destructive cycle and have conflict relationship.

Although the Year of the Yang Metal Tiger starts on February 4, 2010, its energy is already here since November 2009, the Month of the Pig. The Pig is the good friend of the Tiger, so the Tiger “energy” or influences came here earlier.

What happened in November and December 2009 will likely reflect what's going to happen in the Year of the Tiger 2010. So what major events occurred during this period?

  1. Serious traffic accidents: Tiger Wood car crash; Bomb caused Russian derailment.

  2. Fire & explosions: China coal mine blast; Russian fire, Russian arsenal explosions.

  3. War: Naval between North and South Korea; Obama to send more troops to Afghanistan (likely war in 2010?)

  4. Misfortune to Children

  5. Nuclear Problem: Iran expands nuclear program

  6. Stock market optimism

In short, 2010 will not be a peaceful year.

Would it be good for the Stock Market? Lookout for Part 2!

(Information obtained from talk by famous Hong Kong Fengshui Master on January 8 2010)





Sunday, January 10, 2010

January 11 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

January 11 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to be weak and volatile, except Jan 14 and 15.


Financial Astrology: Will markets reverse this week? Watch these dates:

Jan 13 – Saturn retrograde

Jan 15 – Solar Eclipse, Mercury turn direct.

Will this Solar Eclipse affect China?



Technical Analysis: US markets: Expect big moves coming. Will it be up or down?



This week is US options expirations week. While expirations weeks tend to be positive, that is not the pattern for the expirations week in January.

The Stock Traders Almanac notes that “January Expiration weeks down big 8 of last 11 years”, and expiration day (Friday) “Expiration Day Dow down 9 of last 11 with some big losses”.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

W.D. Gann's Secrets Unveiled?

It is said that W.D. Gann's books and courses are written in a veiled language, like the way the Bible is written.


When you read it the third time, a new light will dawn. You will find the hidden secret, the veiled meaning and will understand why the Bible says “Seek and ye shall find, knock and it shall be opened unto you.”


“Happy is the man that findeth wisdom, and the man that getteth understanding.”


“Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance."


History repeats itself. “The future is but a repetition of the past” is found in the Bible.


If we can know the future, is it of value to us? “Forewarned is forearmed!”


Get past history, find out what cycle, then predict the curve for the future.”


Find the correct starting point, and know the cycle which is going to be repeated. Begin right, the right beginning will get the right ending.”


Time is the great factor and proves all things.”


There is a time and a season for everything, and if a man does things according to the time, he will succeed.”


If man know there is a time to stop trying to make money and to keep what you have, then wait for another season when the time is ripe, they could continue to succeed indefinitely."


Gann knew about time and season because he bought at the right time and sold at the right time.”


Man's greatest enemy in speculaton is “Hope”.


If my new discoveries work, as I hope they will, I look forward to the day when you can join me in a great campaign for making money.”


But why did Gann kept the “discoveries” to himself? He believed in the saying : “In silence, by silence, through silence, were all things made.”

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

January 2010 Stock Market Forecast (Part2)

January 5 to February 3, 2010

Fengshui Analysis:

This is the Yin Fire Ox Month. First half likely to see strength and volatility while second half likely to be weak.



Technical Analysis:


US Market: There is possibility S&P will rise sharply toward 1200. However, there are bearish forces which might stop this rally. A decisive break below 1120 would signal this rally is likely over.


Financial Astrology:

Read January 2010 Stock Market Forecast - Part 1


Monday, January 4, 2010

January 2010 Stock Market Forecast

Let's watch the Sky for Trends!

Jan 13 - Saturn retrograde

Jan 15 – New Moon, Annular Solar Eclipse, Mercury direct

Jan 17 – Jupiter enters Pisces

Jan 29 – Sun Mars Opposition

Jan 30 – Sun oppose Full Moon

Jan 31 - Saturn Pluto Square


Summary: First 15 days may be confusing with Mercury retrograde. Middle and End of month bearish

Lookout for Part 2 - Forecast using Fengshui and Technical Analysis


Sunday, January 3, 2010

January 4 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

January 4 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to see strength, except Jan 8 2010.


Financial Astrology: Have markets topped out last week? Will it continue to decline this week? Expect volatility and negativity, with confusing signals since Mercury is retrograde.



Technical Analysis: US Markets: Where are stocks headed next? With volume expected to be back to normal this week, we should have the answer. Downside risk is high.



Lookout for January 2010 Stock Market Forecast – coming soon!

January 5, 2010 to February 3, 2010 is the last month in the Year of the OX. Will it be bullish or bearish?

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Stock Market Outlook 2010 (Part 2)

Extracts from an article posted by a US Market Timing Expert on Dec 31, 2009:

2009 was one of the rare years when seasonal patterns did not appear. Investors may be surprised how aggressively the seasonal pattern bounces back in 2010.

Remember the Four-Year Presidential Cycle?


The history of the Presidential Cycle: the economy and stock market tend to have problems in the first 2 years of each new president’s term, and then recover and be robust over the last 2 years of the term. The Cycle has a very consistent pattern in the President's first term. For instance, almost all bear markets have taken place in the first 2 years of the Presidential Cycle, and almost all recoveries have been underway in the last 2 years of the Cycle.


So what does that mean for 2010, when we have a President in his first term and 2010 will be the second year in this Presidential Cycle?


There will still be economic problems, in the real estate sector when the program of big tax rebates to home buyers expires in the spring, in the financial sector as commercial loan defaults continue to spike, in consumer spending (75% of the economy) as consumers remain hunkered down under high debt levels and high unemployment. No one expects any more than tepid economic growth next year. There may even be a dip back into recession for a quarter or two. Of the 7 recessions since 1957, 5 had W bottoms rather than V bottoms, ie, they experienced one or two positive quarters and then dropped back into recession for one or two quarters. So we can expect problems sometime during the year for the stock market.


Since 1918, there has been a huge rally from the low in the second year of every Presidential term to the high the following year. Even the conservative Dow gained an average of 50% in those rallies. It has taken place no matter which political party was in office, in periods of war or peace, high or low interest rates, high or low inflation, high or low budget deficits, or whatever. It’s a period when you would not want to be out of the market, a period when even buy and hold investing is at its best.


The problem – identifying when that LOW is in place. Historically, it has more often taken place in the fall, but over the years every month has had a turn or two in producing the low, even January.


So, it is highly likely there will be an important time next year to take profits and stand aside, to avoid the large losses that have taken place within each year recently. The problem is not made easier by the fact that each of the last two years experienced serious downturns right out of the gate, beginning just a few days into January.



Have you read "US Stock Market Outlook 2010"?


Hmm... when will that LOW be? Ask my Stock Market Time Clocks lor!

DJIA 7thYear Itch -Will 2017 be Itchy? (Part 4)

There are "3 formula" in my calculator based on my interpretation of the Bible.  The current trend looks very bullish, so I should...