Thursday, July 9, 2009

July Stock Market Patterns

According to Stock Traders Almanac:

  1. First half generally stronger.
  2. Market often gets creamed in second half when a bear market is in progress. Time will tell whether we are still in a bear market again.
  3. Market volatility often takes hold after July 4th.
  4. Expiration week has been a mixed bag. 7.7% Dow loss in 2002, 3.6% gain last year.
  5. Week after expiration astrocious. Dow down 7 of 11 years.

So, investors are better off on the sidelines this month.

According to one expert market timer:

  1. Week before July’s options expirations week tends to be negative by the time it ends.
  2. Expiration week tends to be negative, down 6 of the last 9 years. Dow lost a big 4.4% on the July options expirations day alone.
  3. Week after July expirations also tends to be negative, having been down 7 of the last 11 years.

(Added July 10, 2009)

For other historical patterns, visit CNBC News. There is a new section on Today in US Market History - historical stock market performance for the day. Click on the current day's history and you will be able to see the Month's, Quarter's and Half's historical performance. Remember, "History is a Guide, not Gospel".

A link is also provided in this blog, on the right handside under My Favourite Market News - Today in US Market History.

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