Friday, May 22, 2009

China's Shanghai Composite – The Leader!

The US market stumbles and regional markets follow, but the Shanghai market hardly sneezes except for a minor retreat last Thursday. This acts as a counterbalance to the impact of US weakness on markets such as Taiwan, South Korea and the red-chip sector in Hong Kong.

A combination of weakness in the US and trend weakness in China would pose a more serious threat to regional recovery.

Shanghai's index-trend strength remains well established but includes some cautionary factors:

  1. Index approaching very strong and significant consolidation area between 2600 and 3000. It will require very strong trend strength to move into this area, likely over several weeks.

  2. It is still affeted by world market behaviou, particularly US. US market rally is showing reduced momentum and has high potential for substantial market retreat and will have some effect on Shanghai Index – it might retreat to retest support below 2600.

  3. The retreat will not change the direction of the long term uptrend.

  4. Probability of strong breakout above 2650 in near future has been reduced by world market conditions. There is a small increase in probability of a fall to retest 2500 support area.

  5. Long term uptrend remains a step and stairway trend-development chart pattern – creates an entry opportunity in anticipation of a trend continuation.

  6. This will provide a leading entry signal in associated markets that are increasingly taking their lead from Shanghai.

Source: Key points extracted from Daryl Guppy's Article published in The Edge Singapore

(Note: Chart is not the latest. Todate, it has broken 2650 and retreated)

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