Friday, February 27, 2009

STI Underperforming Region!

Alamak! Why like that?

Both Amfraser and UBS commented STI had been underperforming the region.

According to Phillips Securities Research, STI tracks the CRB index quite closely. When CRB index drops, so goes STI!

So I decided to do some research to see where CRB and Oil are heading.

One Financial Astrology Expert say:

  1. CRB should rebound into March to test 20 year support/resistance level 250 or more into March 30 cycle date.
  2. Oil is likely to move up into next cycle high of March 9, 2009.

Hahaha, good news is yesterday Oil rebounded and CRB was up by 5 points but bad news is STI ????

Maybe STI waiting for Dow to break 7500 before launching a "Sharp and Scary" rally lor!

Monitor the Regional Indices closely, especially Nikkei and Hang Seng Futures. Nowadays, all seems to be able to predict Dow direction! Or is Dow tracking Asia now!

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Breaking News! Prechter say “Sharp and Scary” Rally Coming?

Good News!

Elliott Wave International Inc.’s Robert Prechter was interviewed by Bloomberg yesterday. Key points to note:

He said “cover” shorts on Monday February 23, 2009.

He advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the bear market began, said investors should end that bet after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled to a 12-year low.

He warned of a “sharp and scary” rebound for anyone still wagering on a retreat, according to this month’s “Elliott Wave Theorist.”

Although Prechter has now reversed that call, he said the S&P 500 may keep plunging.

“Am I saying that the market has reached its final bottom? No!” he wrote. “The wave count is not quite finished, and ideally the S&P should continue down into the 600s.”

Prechter’s recommendation follows the advice of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s U.S. equity strategist
Thomas Lee, who today issued a “trading buy” recommendation on the S&P 500. The index fell to 743.33 yesterday. Lee set a “short-term” forecast of 800.

“The market is compressed,” Prechter said in the note published yesterday.

“When it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than late.”

So, shortists beware!!!

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Another Stock Market Jinx #4

Stock Market Jinx #4 - February!

I have a copy of Stock Trader's Almanac 2008 and I dun refer to it!

Hey, it is still useful hor, I mean the statistics still serve as a useful guide! Why you did not refer to it, TSK! Knock knock knock!

According to Stock Trader's Almanac 2008, “February is the weakest link in the “Best Six Months”. Either go short, or stay away the day before Presidents' Day.”

Ok ok, from now on, I'll refer to it when preparing the Monthly Stock Market Forecast!

So what does it say for March?

"March has Ides and St Patrick's day. Begin bullishly then fades away.”

Wanna decode this riddle, lookout for my next article – My Exit Strategy before the Stock Market Crash comes!

Read Beat Stock Market Jinx for Stock Market Jinx 1 to 3.

Extended Settlement Contracts (ES) Fair – Free

SGX had scheduled 2 ES Fairs on March 14, 2009 as part of the launch of this new product.

I've already registered.

Interested, register online or via email.

There seems to be problems with the online registration, so I registered via email (

You can either attend the morning or afternoon session, details see SGX Academy

Monday, February 23, 2009

February 23 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

February 23 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Markets likely to be volatile.

Astrology: Expect a range bound market.

Technical Analysis: US indices – Watch for break above 7500 to confirm bear market rally.

There is a turn date on February 23. February 25 is new moon. This week also got a number of market moving economic reports in US. Then Mr Ben talking on Tuesday February 24 - when Ben talk, market drops, so they say!

The present situation reminds me of what happened in Mar/April 2008. I followed Fengshui forecast and bought some stocks. Suddenly, markets drop due to Bear Stearns (was it?). I held on to stocks cos fengshui forecast said Mar to early May 2008 good. Markets really recovered strongly then.

Now, will history repeat?

Let's wait and see.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Financial Astrology Expert was Spot On!

This FA Expert was spot on in his February 2, 2009 Newsletter Forecast. Key points to note:
  1. A test of lows in February due to negative astro on general market
  2. A W market pattern
  3. Buy/accumulate stocks at Dow 7400
  4. Dow not likely to break 7200

Why I ignore the forecast? It is usually 1-2 weeks old when I see it. I was over influenced by the OX lor! Knock knock knock.

From now on, I'll give this forecast more weight.

He was spot on as he wrote:


Never mind, make less only lor! Cannot be too greedy, give some to others lor!

Friday, February 20, 2009

Bear Market Rally still Alive?

Ting ting ting! Yes, an early “Stock Market Crash Alert”? Yes, we got the Dow Theory Reconfirmation last night, an early warning that a “Stock Market Crash” is coming!

When is it likely to start? According to the TA master, maybe in April 2009. According to the Fengshui master, lookout for this next week lor.

Read this, extracted from Dow Market Direction:

"The Weekly Chart shows the Dow is sitting on 12-year support at 7,450. The index has bounced nicely many times after testing this zone throughout the years. There have been clear tests of this level that have led to breaks of at least 200 points, but each false break led to a big upside reversal from lows. We will continue to watch this 7,450 support level very closely, as the entire market is fixated on it.

If the index can hold current lows, we will watch 7,520 for early signs of strength tomorrow. A break through this zone could easily cause another test at 7,675.”

What does the weekly chart for STI show? 1600 as support in my chart! Watch this level!

And take note: That market timing expert I mentioned in yesterday's article had issued buy calls again on Dow for tonight!

Then my TA master forecast Dow might be down first, then rally tonight. If it can break 7500, expect a bear market rally!

Okay for now. Remember to lookout for my article next week - My Exit Strategy before the crash comes!

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Dow Theory Reconfirmation?

Experts say if Dow close below 7552.29, then we will have a Dow Theory Reconfirmation of Primary Bear Market Trend.

Mr Dow refused to close below 7552.29 for the past 2 days. Maybe “PPT” was buying and supporting the market, so they say.

Will it close below 7552.29 tonight?

One market timing expert had issued some buy calls this morning, which includes Dow and S&P 500. He also issued sell calls, which includes Gold. He uses his own proprietary system which he claims can detect market turns. Eg. if the index hit his indicator and rebound, then his buy call is valid. If the index hit his indicator and drop, then his sell call is valid. He seems very confident that his system works most of the time. Well, I hope his system works tonight!

Based on Fengshui, fire and wood elements are considered strong yesterday, today, tomorrow and Saturday. It has strong fire elements tomorrow and Saturday. Hopefully, the US markets are supported by these Fengshui elements and bull market players come in to support the markets lor!

If US markets rebound, could we see Asian markets rally tomorrow as well?

Remember, this week is options expirations in US markets, so particularly volatile.

Let's wait and see.

Trading Extended Settlement (ES) Contracts

Extended Settlement (ES) Contracts, a new product, will be launched by SGX tomorrow, February 20 2009.

Hmm... I am planning to make money trading ES contracts (short) when Mr Bear is out of hibernation!

Trading ES contracts (short selling) is better than short selling using CFD or trading warrants (just my opinion hor):
  1. Cheaper – no finance charges
  2. Dun need to worry about price decay as in warrants
  3. Ease of trading – same platform as trading shares, I like it!

The only concern I have is liquidity.

Well, I shall start monitoring the trading activities of these ES contracts for about a month. Maybe do some paper trading. Then see how lor. Luckily, I dun think Mr Bear is out yet!

The other thing I like is there are only 28 securities, all STI component stocks, except for 3. Aha, STI ETF is one of these 3. I like it.

Phillip Securities had just published a comprehensive FAQ on ES Contracts.

Let's make money!

Free Tickets to ATIC 2009 (April 18-19)

ATIC Singapore 2009 is coming!

The annual event, Asia Trader and Investor Convention, organised by NEXTVIEW will be held from April 18 to 19 at Suntec Convention Centre.

Over 40 free seminars on investment strategies to choose from.

Details are not out yet.

I received an email invitation to register for free tickets to the event.

Interested, you can register at ATIC Singapore 2009.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Magic of Fibonacci Numbers & Ratios

How do stock market experts know when markets will turn or reverse, from downtrend to uptrend and vice versa?

One of the indicators some stock market experts use is based on Fibonacci numbers & ratios.

Stock Market has cycles. So they track market tops and bottoms and calculate the Fibonacci numbers and ratios to determine the next cycle tops and bottoms. The outcome would be an estimated number of trading days after which the market is likely to turn or reverse.

Very the 'chim' right! I mean complicated hor!

Well, I leave it to the experts to identify the turns, then I check against Fengshui forecast to confirm the direction and trade/invest accordingly, where possible.

So when are the next major turn dates coming? For the start of this bear market rally, i.e. breakout of sideways trend? For the end of this bear market rally?

Lookout for my next article!

Monday, February 16, 2009

February 16 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

February 16 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Markets likely to do well this week, expect volatility early week.

Astrology: Possible bear market rally this week.

Technical Analysis: US indices – Markets likely to rally Tuesday or Wednesday onwards.

This week is options expirations in US Stock Market, market is closed on Monday.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

End of Bear Market in 2012?

End of Bear Market in 2012?

One expert who studies W. D. Gann's works said Stock Market has 30-Year Cycle. Key points to note:

1. Stock Market usually has 2 significant Bull Markets every 30 years.

2. First Bull Market:

  • Begin in years ending with “2” such as 1922, 1952, 1982
  • Usually larger than Second Bull Market
  • Typically ends in "9" or “0” year (1929, 1959, 1990)
  • A major correction in the "7" year like 1927, 1957, 1987

3. Second Bull Market:

  • Typically begins in "12" year such 1932, 1962, 1992
  • Usually shorter than First Bull Market
  • Ends in "17" year on average such as 1937, 1967, 1997

4. After this, a consolidation or sideways pattern of approximately 13 years begins with slight upward bias

So, based on the above, this Bear Market might end in 2012, around September/October 2012. Hmm... is this the ideal time to accumulate stocks?

Wow! Luckily we are on the way into the Second Bull Market!

Aha, this is pretty close to my
Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years!

And remember I wrote
How to Beat the Stock Market Jinx!

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Why Markets So Volatile?

Why is the US Market so volatile in this bear market rally?

An expert said US Market Indices (Dow, S&P500) are now inside a supercyle degree wave. This part of the Elliott Wave is notorious for whipsawing movements, with lots of back and forth movements, sideways, range bound. It is the most difficult to trade.

Experts who watch the sky for trends say there are many planetary movements, different planetary movements influence the markets in different ways.

Then the present Fengshui elements are most favourable for stock markets.

I guess the Fengshui elements has strong influence on the stock markets, helping to support the stock markets, preventing it from crashing down. Haha, these are my observations lor, since last February 2008.

In March/April 2008, some local technical traders/experts were calling for stock market crash. However, as the Fengshui elements then were favourable for the stock markets, the markets rebounded strongly. Technical indicators failed.

Now, some technical traders/experts are also calling for stock market crash.

I guess they will ultimately be disappointed. Now the Fengshui elements are most favourable for the stock markets, plus the Elliott Wave Technical Analysis indicates a possible bear market rally ahead.

Another expert on cycle analysis had also issued calls for a bear market rally ahead.

How do these experts know when the bear market rally is likely to start and end? I mean breakout of this sideways trend.

Lookout for my next article!

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Monday, February 9, 2009

February 9 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

February 9 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Likely to see strength first half, slowdown later half of week. Focus on the big picture, refer to February 2009 Stock Market Forecast.

Astrology: Monday volatile, expect bear market rally thereafter.

Technical Analysis: US indices – Might fall Monday or Tuesday, or possible rally in next 10 days.

Today is full moon, 15th day of Chinese New Year (CNY), last day of CNY celebration, also known as Chinese Valentine's Day.

I'll be very busy, preparing for this First and Most Important Chinese Festival Celebration of the Year.

STI had been underperforming last week. Hope STI cheong high high this week, play catch up with other regional markets. Then, we can make big big on the STI ETF! Enjoy this roller coaster ride, up up and away!

Huat arh!!!

Thursday, February 5, 2009

February 2009 - Stock Market Forecast Update

February 2009 - Stock Market Forecast Update

This month, I will not be providing Stock Market Forecast – Technical Analysis and Financial Astrology. Why?

Financial Astrology (FA) was vague, not very much in sync with Fengshui Forecast. Technical Analysis also not so in sync but better than FA.

Based on experience in Mar/April 2008, which were wood/fire months, Fengshui forecast was spot on, while FA and TA failed to forecast the direction correctly. The forecast for February 4, 2009 was already wrong. This is the first day of the Year of OX (solar calendar), Yang Fire Tiger Month.

So this time, I shall ignore FA and TA.

However, I will still monitor TA closely and provide updates.

Latest updates on TA Forecast (US Markets) – possible multi-week rally of about 10% to 20% coming, maybe after another week or two.

So dun miss this bear market rally!

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Where is DOW Heading?

Daryl Guppy published an analysis of Dow Chart at CNBC website yesterday. Key points to note:

  1. 3 most powerful bearish signals in the market are a Head and Shoulder Pattern, a Rounding Top and a Down Sloping Triangle.
  2. The Head and Shoulder Pattern on Dow took the market to first downside target of 11,200 in 2008. The October 2008 plunge set a potential support area near 8,000. The last four months have seen a test and retest of this general support area.
  3. Over the last four months, the rally rebounds have developed a pattern of declining highs. The first anchor point for the trend line was set by the rally peak near 9,600 in November. The failure of the early January rally near 9,000 established, a second anchor point for a new trend line.
  4. A new downtrend line using these two anchor points is drawn on the daily Dow chart. This creates a Down Sloping Triangle, a powerful bearish pattern in any market. In a bear market, the strength of the pattern is increased and suggests a high probability of a downside breakout.
  5. Downside target is near 6000, close to long-term historical support near 5,600. A fall to this level moves the market out of recession territory and clearly into depression territory. Estimated time frame in mid-April 2009.
  6. The market is entering the last third of the pattern development. Breakouts from this sector of the pattern can be very powerful and move very quickly to achieve their target levels.
  7. A successful break above the down-sloping trend line has a target between 10,000 and 10,600. The measured base of 2,000 points is projected upwards from the point on the trend line where any breakout develops.
  8. The test and retest of support near 8,000 is not part of a consolidation pattern preceding a market reversal. It is consistent with a bearish down-sloping triangle pattern.
  9. The solution for survival in 2009 is defensive trading because there is no such thing as a defensive stock, a defensive sector, or a cyclical survivor in a depression market condition.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

As January Goes, So Goes the Year!

As January Goes, So Goes the Year!

According to Stock Trader's Almanac, as January goes, so goes the rest of the year!

S&P 500 fell 8.57% in January 2009. So there goes the rest of the year – it will likely be another bear market! This January Barometer is accurate 91% of the time.

Another expert prefers to use the December Low Indicator. According to the December Low Indicator, should the Dow close below its December low anytime in the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign. Watch Out!

Maybe it is better to wait for it to violate its November Low, the last low in 2008. Let's see.

Well, regardless of the above, my Crystal Ball already provided the Stock Market Forecast for 2009. The above only goes to support my Crystal Ball – its going to be another Bear Year! After this bear market rally, its going to be down down down!

Be prepared!

Monday, February 2, 2009

Where is Hang Seng Index Heading?

Daryl Guppy wrote an analysis on Hang Seng Index on January 29 2009.

Key points to note:

  1. Hang Seng Index shows the same behaviour patterns as the broader Asia Market.

  2. Equilateral triangle is a pattern of indecision.

  3. Breakout above Trendline A was bullish but failed.

  4. Trendline A now becomes support. Any rebound will find strong resistance at 15500.

  5. Market might slide down Trendline A until it encounters another strong horizontal support level. The fall is slower, reduction in downside volatility.

  6. Might encounter horizontal support at 8500, some time in May 2009.

  7. Might see temporary psychological pause at 10500 level.

Straits Times Index tends to track Hang Seng Index closely. So it is good to monitor.

Should I keep my Whole Life Policies?

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