Friday, January 30, 2009

Happy Semi-Blogiversary “S.M.A.R.T Investing with TSK”

Happy Semi-Blogiversary “S.M.A.R.T Investing with TSK”

Today, my blog “S.M.A.R.T. Investing with TSK” celebrates it's semi-blogiversary! Time flies.


Thank you for your continued support, reading my articles and advertisements ($$$).


Hope you find my articles useful in helping you manage your investments and risks.

Most important of all – Make Money ($$$)!


Here is the Pie of Global Visitors todate:


How Global Visitors find my blog:

43% Direct Traffic
37% Search Engines
19% Referring Sites

Summary of Visitors and Page Views:



Best Month in 2009 Stock Market!

Best Month in 2009 Stock Market!

Based on Fengshui forecast, February 2009 is the best month for stock market. It is the month with the strongest Fire element which supports the stock market.

So dun miss this bear market rally.

Lookout for the February 2009 Stock Market Forecast – TA and FA next week!

I sure hope these two forecasts will confirm the Fengshui Forecast for February 2009. As of now, TA is providing some signs of a rally!

Huat arh!

Lucky Spots – Toto Hongbao Draw 2009

Singapore Pools will be holding its $10 million Toto Hongbao Draw 2009 on 6 February this year.

Shin Min daily news consulted several feng shui experts for advice on the four lucky spots to purchase Toto tickets this festive season:

Lucky Spot 1 - Betting stations near wet markets

Lucky Spot 2 - Yishun

Lucky Spot 3 - Betting stations in the east

Lucky Spot 4 - Betting stations next to places where metal artifacts are sold or repaired

Checkout details in AsiaOne News.

Good Luck!

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Gong Xi Fa Cai, 新年快樂 !


祝您在新的一年,

一帆風順,

二龍騰飛,
三羊開泰,

四季平安,
五福臨門,

六六大順,
七星高照,

八方來財,
九九同心,

十全十美,

百事亨通,
千事吉祥,萬事如意!


Wishing You A Healthy, Wealthy and Prosperous Chinese New Year!

Happy New (牛) Year 2009!

Huat arh!!!

Friday, January 23, 2009

February 2009 Stock Market Forecast - Fengshui


February 4 to March 4, 2009

The Year of the OX starts on February 4, 2009.

This is the Yang Fire Tiger month. It brings strong fire energy which adds strength to the stock markets.

Favourable industries/sectors: Fire, Earth and Wood.

Stock Market is classified under the Fire Industries. So can we expect the stock market to be up, up, up, baring unforeseen circumstances?


Thursday, January 22, 2009

Auspicious Head Start In Year of OX

A good head start is important. A Fengshui Master had selected the following auspicious dates to start work during the Chinese New Year:

January 28 2009, Time: 7am to 10:59am (clashes with Rabbit)


January 30 2009, Time: 11am to 14:59pm (clashes with Snake)

February 2 2009, Time 11am to 12:59pm (clashes with Monkey)


Lookout for my Chinese New Year "Ang Pow Special Article" tomorrow :

Fengshui Forecast for February 2009 Stock Market!

I will also "siew kang" liao and have a good head start in Year of OX 2009!


Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Where's the Pot of Gold in 2009? – Part 2

Where's the Pot of Gold in 2009?

With the Wealth Star in the South East and Central Regions, which countries will it bring prosperity to?

1. South East Asia Countries
2. Countries bearing the name Central or Middle, ie Middle East, Central China.


I only focus on Singapore Stock Market. I'll stay invested when my Crystal Ball tells me there is upside in the Stock Market. I'll be out before this bear market rally ends. Then I'll prepare to short the market - let me see if the new product to be launched by SGX is a better alternative to profit from the next bear market downturn.

Just some food for thought!

Read Where's the Pot of Gold in 2009? - Part 1



Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Where's the Pot of Gold in 2009?

Where's the Pot of Gold?

“The Wealth Sector for 2009 is located in the South East Sector of the House. If your main door, living room, bedroom or work area is located here, you will enjoy good financial standing.

Acivate this sector by placing a water feature, wealth bowl or your investment documents in this sector of the room.

The secondary wealth sector is in the Central Location. This area is preferably left uncluttered, brightly lighted and open in order for the auspicious energy to be well circulated.”

I learnt to read the compass and found that my trading desk is located nicely in the Wealth Sector for 2009. And I'm facing the Wealth Sector.

Haha, hope the good fengshui will bring me even better luck for 2009. Huat arh!


Which parts of the World would do better in 2009? Where should you invest? Can you guess from the above? Lookout for Part 2 to this article!

Monday, January 19, 2009

January 19 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

January 19 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market likely perform well this week with signs of slowdown on Friday.

Astrology: Volatile week with positive trend bias.

Technical Analysis: US indices – Signs that decline is almost over and rally about to start.

US Market is closed on Monday, Tuesday is Obama's inauguration day.

Singapore - Budget announcement week! Singapore Budget will be announced on January 22, 2009. Will we get a pre-CNY stock market Rally? Hope we can Gong Xi Ya Gong Xi, Fa Ya Fa Ta Cai!




Friday, January 16, 2009

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2009 Another Year of Freebies!

Gong Xi Gong Xi Gong Xi Ni, Ya Gong Xi Gong Xi Gong Xi Ni!

Hahaha, I just got confirmation that my Platinum Club Membership will be extended for another year. So I'll get to use Poems Protrader for another year free!

I also managed to chalk up sufficient Poems Rewards Points to redeem for The Edge subscription for another year, free! Oops! Not yet, still short of 30 points. Should not be a problem to chalk up by January 31, 2009.

Are you are Poems user? If so, remember to redeem your Rewards Points before January 31, 2009, the expiry date.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Where is STI and Regional Indices Heading?

Daryl Guppy wrote his analysis on STI yesterday. Key points to note:


  1. A common chart pattern in STI and many Regional markets – failure of breakout from equilateral triangle (see diagram).

  2. Good news: reduction in bearish pressure – probability that market will hit the downside target from the equilateral triangle is reduced.

  3. Bad news: Trendline A now becomes support – this is bullish. But slope of line shows continued bearish pressure. STI can slide down the support line.

  4. Trendline A, when projected forward, intersects a horizontal support line at 1640 in late February - estimated support target and timeframe.

  5. If this support target breaks, then downside target of equilateral triangle remain valid.

  6. This period is dominated by short term rallies and rapid retreats. It remains a traders market.


Read STI in Consolidation – Breaking Up – for downside target of equilateral triangle.



Read My Crystal Ball – Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox, in particular Chart Patterns for 1Q2009, for my take on possible direction of STI going forward. Dun forget to lookout for my monthly and weekly forecasts, including daily articles for latest updates.



Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Elliott Wave Financial Forecast December 2008 - Free

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I just downloaded and read the Free Report. It tells you:

1. Where we are now on the Elliot Wave Model - Dow & S&P 500;
2. How low can DOW and S&P go;
3. Where gold is heading;
4. Why Warren Buffet is sinking;
5. Read on for more!

More Fengshui Stock Market Predictions 2009

I found two more Fengshui Stock Market Predictions or Tips from Fengshui Masters of Hong Kong and Malaysia. Their predictions are very similar to My Crystal Ball – Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox. I guess these Fengshui Masters are from the same Fengshui School of Thought. They are very well known Fengshui Masters in their country and have the necessary skills on stock market predictions. How I know? That's my secret lor!

Here are their Stock Market Predictions:

Hong Kong Fengshui Master:

1. Quite a few world leaders in 2009 were associated with "Yin Earth", including US President-elect Barack Obama and French president Nicolas Sarkozy. People belonging to the Yin Earth tend to be more charming and charitable. They love peace rather than war. They are usually the ones who contribute to science and humanity. However, he did not expect Obama or other state leaders to be able to turn around the global economic situation in 2009 because the element of fire - which stands for the force that motivates financial activities - is missing for most of next year. It is a year for Obama to lay the foundation for his administration, rather than achieve anything.

2. Financial markets will go up a little in the first couple of months but this will be short-lived. Investors are bound to be disappointed in the end.


Malaysia Fengshui Master:

1. First half of 2009 will be all right, while the second half will see deterioration.

2. The financial tsunami needs to happen. 2008 up to 2010 will be the rebuilding years, before wealthy times appear.

3. There will be a little spring appearing in mid-2009, which is a false image. People will think this spring marks the start of a rally. Things will in fact go down after that. My advice is for investors to ride on the wave of this little spring when it happens. Use this opportunity to sell.

(My comments: the little spring is likely to be in first quarter only)


Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Dr Doom Warns More Doom Ahead!

The worst is still ahead of us, warns Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini. He was interviewed by Boomberg and wrote an article in Foreign Policy in early January 2009.

Summary of Key points here:

1. While the odds of a systemic financial meltdown have been reduced by the actions of the Group of Seven and other economies, severe vulnerabilities remain.



2. The credit crunch will persist and spread beyond mortgages. Deleveraging will continue, as thousands of hedge funds - many of which will go bust - and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, thus causing price declines and driving more insolvent financial institutions out of business. Credit losses will mount as the recession deepens. And a few emerging-market economies will certainly enter a full-blown financial crisis.

3. So 2009 will be a painful year of global recession and further financial stresses, losses and bankruptcies.

4. Certainly, the United States will experience its worst recession in decades. The formerly mainstream notion that the U.S. contraction would be short and shallow—a V-shaped recession with a quick recovery like the ones in 1990–91 and 2001—is out the window. Instead, the U.S. contraction will be U-shaped: long, deep, and lasting about 24 months (probability is two-third). It could end up being even longer, an L-shaped, multiyear stagnation, like the one Japan suffered in the 1990s (probability is now rising to a third).

5. Only aggressive, coordinated and effective policy actions by advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure that the global economy starts to recover -- however slowly --in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.

6. As the U.S. economy shrinks, the entire global economy will go into recession. In Europe, Canada, Japan, and the other advanced economies, it will be severe. Nor will emerging-market economies—linked to the developed world by trade in goods, finance, and currency—escape real pain.

7. This scenario is dangerous for many reasons. A number of central banks will be close enough to setting interest rates of zero that their economies fall into a triple whammy: a liquidity trap, a deflation trap, and debt deflation. In a liquidity trap, the banks lose their ability to stimulate the economy because they cannot set nominal interest rates below zero. In a deflation trap, falling prices mean that real interest rates are relatively high, choking off consumption and investment. This leads to a vicious circle wherein incomes and jobs are falling, with demand dropping still further. Finally, in debt deflation, the real value of nominal debts rises as prices fall—bad news for countries such as the United States and Japan that have high ratios of debt to GDP.


Monday, January 12, 2009

January 12 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to be weak, except for Jan 12. Jan 14 is likely to be unstable.

Astrology: Volatile and negative bias.

Technical Analysis: US indices – Likely to decline this week.


Friday is US options expiration. Will option expiration week patterns continue to play out?

2009 Horoscope Forecasts in Year of OX

On Saturday morning, I was at POSBANK to retrieve a cheque I deposited earlier. Why? I found out that MAYBANK is paying 1.75% per annum upfront interest for minimum of $25K FD. Luckily, I managed to retrieve the cheque I deposited in the quick cheque deposit box. Thanks to POSBANK staff.


Then when at POSBANK, I picked up a red scroll. It's the 2009 Horoscope Forecasts in Year of OX, courtesy of POSBANK, contributed by Fengshui Master Tan Khoon Yong.


What's your “Windfall” luck in Year of OX? How about your Investment Luck? Read the extracts from the scroll. Click to enlarge.



Friday, January 9, 2009

Obama Lead Rally for 2 to 3 Months!

Daryl Guppy wrote an article yesterday. Key points to note:
  1. We expect to see an Obama lead rally that may last 2 to 3 months;
  2. The rally may, or may not continue into the second quarter of 2009;
  3. So traders must be alert for a rally collapse and a retest of the 2008 October lows;
  4. This may be the mother of all rallies and will present many trading opportunities.

Wow wow wow! Another technical expert viewpoint which is very much in sync with My Crystal Ball – Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox, S&P / Dow / STI Charts for 1Q2009!

My TA Master's assessment is Dow might decline in the next few days before the rally resumes. So is the "A January 2009 test of lows" prediction by Financial Astrology Experts in play now?

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Expectations for 2009 – Economy vs Stock Market

You might have already read or heard many stock analysts or economists or whoever talked about their opinion or predictions for 2009.

Here's another one, from Gabriel Gan who wrote in the latest issue of Shares Investment Guide. Key points:
  1. In 2009, we can expect earnings downgrades to come even more ferociously as company profits are expected to fall by greater magnitudes.
  2. First quarter is expected to be bad and share prices are not expected to fall much on bad earnings. He is still positive about the first quarter and, possibly, the second quarter.
  3. Second and third quarter earnings will be the key because investors expect a recovery in the second-half of the year. If earnings continue to show more weakness in the second and third quarter, it will likely spook investors into thinking that we are far away from a recovery. He will be more cautious as we approach half-time because expectations of a recovery, if not met, will result in disappointment. And this will not be good for the stock market.


It is the investors' and stock market players' expectations about the economy and company that will affect the stock market. It is the psychology or emotions of these market players that will affect the stock market direction.

So Where is the Stock Market Heading?

Those who can forecast or predict the emotions of these market players would know.

Read My Crystal Ball and you would know!

Stock Market Forecast for 2009 - Yin Earth Ox

Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years

Bear Market Rally Ahead

Monthly Stock Market Forecasts

A January 2009 test of lows

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Magic of Elliott Wave

Elliott Waves have predictive value. It provides an overall big picture of where we are headed, a map to identify what is likely going to be the future direction.

However, it is not always easy to apply. My observation is even Elliott Wave practitioners have different views or interpretations of the likely wave patterns and thus different conclusions on the possible next direction or move. That's why I decided not to spend time learning about Elliott Wave.


Instead, I tap on the expertise of Elliott Wave Experts!


What is Elliott Wave?

Stock markets move in repetitive wave patterns that are predictable. Generally primary trends happen in 5 waves. Then market always reverse in shorter corrective waves, generally in 3 waves.

Bull markets move forward in 5 waves and move backwards in 3 waves. Bear markets do the opposite, ie. move down in 5 waves and rally up in 3 waves, then move down again in 5 waves.

So, if we can identify the Elliott Wave Patterns correctly, we will be able to know the future direction of the stock market. It's an Art of Foresight!

Interested to learn more about Elliott Waves?

Click Free Elliott Wave Video Crash Course

Free Elliott Wave Tutorial (10 Lessons)

Free Elliott Wave Trading Video Course (New)







Tuesday, January 6, 2009

8.6 Year Global Business Cycle

I've been reading about this 8.6 year Global Business Cycle or Princeton Economic Confidence Model. Took me some time to understand but still dun understand.

Aiyah, I won't bother about the details or history. The most important thing are the dates which I managed to find the answers now.

Based on the 8.6 year cycle, with a 2.15 year interval (see diagram), this model predicts the future highs and lows in the stock market. From now, the future highs and lows are:





2009.3 = April 23, 2009 (High)
2011.45 = June 18, 2011 ( Low)
2013.6 = Dec 8, 2013 (High)
2015.75 = July 10, 2015 (High)
2017.9 = Jan 12, 2017 (High)


Take note of April 23, 2009!
But the high might be earlier than predicted.

See my previous article
S&P500 / Dow / STI Charts for 1Q2009!


Monday, January 5, 2009

January 2009 Stock Market Forecast

January 5 to February 3, 2009


Fengshui
: Yin Wood Ox. Equity Markets likely trying to gain strength. Favourable industries/sectors : Wood and Earth.

Financial Astrology: Expect impressive price swings in stock indices in first 3 weeks of month. Buy dips during this period.

Technical Analysis: US Indices – Multi-month bear market rally still intact. Pattern or extent of rally yet to be confirmed.



Remember my previous article: A January 2009 test of lows

January 5 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

January 5 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Unlikely to see strength except Friday

Astrology: Monday and Friday might be volatile.

Technical Analysis: US indices – Likely decline Monday, bear market rally still intact.


Note: Saturday is full moon.

Remember my previous article: A January 2009 test of lows




Friday, January 2, 2009

S&P / DOW / STI Charts for 1Q2009 - Part 2

"Niu Zhuan Qian Kun”, a chinese proverb meaning “reversing the bad fortune and ushering in abundance of good luck and wealth in the Year of the Ox”.

Yes, though the Year of the Ox will officially arrive on February 4, 2009, positive energy for the stock market is already with us! Happy “Niu” Year 2009!

So, stock markets should be up, up and away?

Take a look at this. I found this graphical comparison of DOW Charts for 1929 vs 2008.

  1. The blue trendline is for 1929 Oct to 1930 April.

  2. The pink trendline is for 2008,

  3. The trendlines are very similar with a 2 week time-lag.

  4. The dotted black trendline is the prediction for the next few months.

Wow, the prediction for the next few months is quite in sync with my Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox.


But remember to lookout for my Crystal Ball Monthly Forecast to see when this Multi-month Bear Market Rally is likely to end. It might be earlier than as predicted above!


"Niu Zhuan Qian Kun”!

Read Part 1, S&P500/STI Charts for 2009

DJIA 7thYear Itch -Will 2017 be Itchy? (Part 3)

Coming up is Friday the 13th October 2017! It is a PI day!   3.14 x 1000 = 3140 days from DJIA bottom on March 9 2009! Just noticed that...