Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Be a Chameleon to Beat the Market!

I like these comic cartoon illustrations about the stock market.

1. To beat the market or survive, we must make the Trend our friend. Be a Bull when the trend is up. Be a Bear when the trend is down. Be a Chameleon!

2. Let the Big Bulls and Big Bears fight it out!








3. Have good foresight, tighten our seat belts and take the big roller coaster rides to beat the market! But remember when one should alight!



4. Don't fall into the Bull Traps or Bear Traps (depends how you view it)!




5. Don't buy on breakout



6. Don't try to catch the bottom!




7. Will there be a Second Great Depression?





8. Be a short term investor for now!




Happy New Year!
2009









Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Watch the Skies for Trends!

A Financial Astrology market timing expert was interviewed recently.

Yes, FA experts watch the skies for trends!
  1. Sees economy teetering between Camelot and Armageddon in 2009.
  2. Stars warned of economic meltdown as early as 1994 because Saturn, Uranus and Plato were aligned in the same pattern as the Great Depression from now until 2012.
  3. Planetary arrangements similar to that in 1929 to 1934.
  4. Just completed first leg down in a new bear market.
  5. We will now recover.
  6. Then we will have another powerful leg down following that.


Wow, very similar to my Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox!

Monday, December 29, 2008

S&P 500 / DOW / STI Charts for 1Q2009?

My Stock Market Masters are on holiday, so Stock Market Forecast - December 29 Weekly Update will be delayed.

How will the S&P500, DOW and STI Charts for 1Q2009 look like?

There are many research comparing 2008 to 1929. My Fengshui Master said the 5 elements of 2009 are very similar to 1929.

So, we shall take a look at the following graphical comparison of the stock market crash of 2000 - 2008 to crashes in 1990 and 1929. Hmm... very eerie right?

The chart shows the 1929 (Dow Jones index / US), 1990 (Nikkei index / Japan) and 2000 - 2008 (AEX index / Europe) stock market crashes, and the pattern is always the same:

  1. Bubble / Boom: stocks rise more than 350% in 6 years.

  2. Crash / Bust: market falls more than 50% in 3 years.

  3. Aftermath: markets are volatile for at least 10 years, and they end where they began.

Human nature does not change overtime. Greed and fear drives the market. Investors behave the same in the US, Japan and Europe. And there is no "this time it's different", not in 1929, 1990 and 2000.

(Comments in blue extracted from source which provided the graph)


Here is another graphical comparison of the charts for 2002 to 2008 vs 1932 to 1937. So eerie!!

So, how will the S&P500, DOW and STI Charts for 1Q2009 look like?

Lookout for Part 2 to this article!

Saturday, December 27, 2008

S&P 500 / STI Charts for 2009?

How will the S&P 500 and STI Charts for 2009 look like?


S&P 500 Chart 2009:

1. From Jan 1989 to Oct 2007 (275 to 1576), the 50% Fibonacci support at 910 had been broken and now become resistance.
2. S&P 500 likely to rebound in next 2 months. If break above 910, then likely to test the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 1058.
3. After which, the market is likely to form a small knoll and continue its fall.


STI Chart 2009:

1. STI will most likely follow suite, form a knoll before continuing its free-fall again.
2. If break above 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 1970, then likely to test 50% Fibonacci resistance level (2350).
3. A head-and-shoulder pattern could be on the cards.

(Above are key points from article written by Xavier Lim in Share Investments Guide, December 19, 2008)

I agree with this Big Picture Chart since it is in sync with my Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox!


How would the Charts look like from now to First Quarter 2009? Lookout for my future articles!


Friday, December 26, 2008

Dow Performance on December 26

Historically, the market has done much better the day after Christmas than the day before.

Since 1980, the Dow has averaged a gain of 0.16% on Christmas Eve, with gains 56% of the time. On December 26, the index has averaged a gain of 0.31%, with gains 81% of the time.

In the 2000s, December 26 has been very strong, with gains 83% of the time.

(Source: B.I.G.)

So, will Dow be very strong tonight?

Tomorrow is new moon. Will US indices rally into the moon?


Thursday, December 25, 2008

Presents For Christmas!

Santa Claus called me on Monday morning inviting me to attend a 90 minutes presentation. I'll be rewarded for spending the time with them. The rewards sounded too good to be true. I remembered a similar call I received last year which I turned down. Then I thought why not give them a chance, I only have to sacrifice 90 minutes of my time, without obligations.

So, yesterday afternoon I went to meet them. After 120 minutes, I said NO to the offer of the membership package. It's like a holiday package type of membership club. Ha ha, guess you know me by now. I'm only interested in investing on assets, not acquiring liabilities!

Ho ho ho! Guess what Santa Claus gave to me for Christmas?

  1. 1. 4 days 3 nights holiday in Bangkok, Pattaya or Phuket Voucher – airtickets & accommodation for two persons. Wow! Too good to believe?

  2. 2. Set Dinner for Two at Thai Restaurant.
  3. 3. Voucher for Free Water Dispenser worth $1800 – hmm... there's a hidden cost!

  4. 4. Spa Voucher worth $180 – I'm giving it away!

Thank you Santa Claus!

If you are interested in receiving these presents from Santa Claus, email me your name and mobile number, then I get the marketing guy to contact you.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

A January 2009 Test of Lows?

Three Astro Market Timing Experts predict a possible test of the lows before January 20, 2009:

1. Something might happen and might send US Markets below 2008 lows before January 20, 2009.

2. Multi-months low might come between January 8 and January 14, 2009.

3. Possible test of the lows or worst in December 2008 or January 2009.

So, be careful.

Hmm.... if it happens, that would be the best buying opportunity to ride this Multi-Month Bear Market Rally!


Monday, December 22, 2008

December 22 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

December 22 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market likely to have strength except for Friday.

Astrology: A positive week.

Technical Analysis: US indices – indecision Monday, sign of topping out.


US – potential market-moving reports on Monday and Tuesday.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

S&P 500 Performance – Options Expiration Weeks

The table below shows S&P 500's performance during option expiration weeks since 2006 (Source B.I.G.).

Note the following:

1. Wednesdays - the only day with averaged negative returns, most volatile with an average change of +/- 1.25%.

2. Fridays - recently with averaged move of less than 1% up or down (0.95%), with highest average gain of 0.34%.

3. For 2008 – 7 of 11 Wednesdays were negative, 8 of 11 Thursdays were positive and 7 of 10 Fridays were positive.


If Wednesday is going to be negative (now at 9pm Wednesday night my time, Dow futures is negative), will Thursday and Friday be positive?


Hmm... guess what I'm thinking?

A Christmas Card from Mr Market

Hopefully, Mr Market doesn't send us this Holiday Card again in 2009! (Source: B.I.G.)






Wednesday, December 17, 2008

STI in Consolidation – Breaking Up?

Daryl Guppy wrote about consolidation patterns on CNBC website yesterday, using Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) as example to explain. A summary of key points below:


Many of the major Asian Regional Indices are in consolidation as reflected in the developing chart patterns.

STI is also in consolidation mode. STI Chart Pattern shows a symmetrical triangle which indicates market indecision (see diagram).


1. The rising trendline, from near 1,450 with a series of rising lows, shows that buyers are more aggressively moving into the market. Buyers wait for falling prices and when the bargain price is irresistible, they re-enter the market. Buyers are becoming more optimistic.

2. The downtrend line shows stockholders who have a different opinion. As prices rise, stockholders sell into the market, worried that prices might continue to weaken.

3. The market can develop an explosive breakout in either direction. This breakout is usually in response to a significant news event. Its a 50% chance of breaking upwards or downwards.

4. Upside target is near 2,300.

5. Downside target is near 1,250.

6. The GMMA display shows downtrend pressure is very strong. It's going to take more than a short term boost of Christmas cheer to sustain an uptrend.

7. Breakout likely to occur just after December 25.


What present will Santa Claus deliver for Christmas?


Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Free Movies & Dramas

My nephew found another website offering free movies and dramas.

Wow! There are latest Hong Kong, Taiwanese, Japanese and Korean Movies and Dramas!

I like to watch the Hong Kong Dramas. Wow! Can go on marathon watch!

Enjoy!

It's MySoju.Com

Earn Rewards with Surveys

I received an invitation to join Valued Opinions.

Upon signing up, I get a chance to win an iPod nano.

Periodically, I will receive email invitations to participate in online surveys which I will earn rewards. Rewards can be redeemed for vouchers from Giant, Cold Storage, 7-eleven, Guardian or Starbucks.

It's free, why not?

Monday, December 15, 2008

December 15 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

December 15 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Markets unlikely to see strength except for Friday.

Astrology: Week might end positive.

Technical Analysis: US indices – might decline Monday. Expect Dow to drop towards 8200+/-, followed by rally till near calendar month end.




US - Another week of quite heavy schedule of market moving economic reports. Expect volatility during week, Friday being quadruple-witching options expiration day.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Mr Market Always Look Forward

The Bad News:

World Bank said Singapore's economic growth will be weak going into 2009.

The economy could bottom out in the third quarter.

It expects Singapore to be one of the worst hit in the region given the small and open economy.



The Good News:

Mr Market always look forward, 6-9 months ahead of the economy.

So expect Mr Market to rally from now?

Expect a multi-month rally as forecasted in my December 2008 Stock Market Forecast and Stock Market Forecast 2009?

Ho ho ho, Santa Claus is coming early to town!



Thursday, December 11, 2008

Mr Bear Gone Multi-Month Hibernation!

“The S&P 500 finally had its first 20% + rally in 408 days. Which means we're currently in a bull market by standard definition (20% rally preceded by a 20% decline).

The bear market from 10/9/07 to 11/20/08 is the third worst ever with a decline of 51.93%. The bears that ended in June 1932 (-61.81%) and March 1938 (-54.47%) are the only two that had bigger declines without a rally of 20%.”

Source: B.I.G.


Remember what I wrote in the December 2008 Stock Market Forecast?

Hurray! It is confirmed with DOW and S&P 500 breaking out of 8900 and 890. The multi-month bear market rally started on November 21, 2008! But volatility is here to stay. Remember the Buy/Sell rules?

Let's make money. Mr Bull came early! I mean Year of the OX. But remember, it is only a bear market rally, not a new bull market hor. Remember hor.

Read Stock Picks 1, Stock Picks 2, Stock Picks 3, Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

A January 2009 test of lows ?

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Gold Outlook 2009

What is the Forecast for Gold by my FA and TA Masters?

Gold might drop to 600-650 range.

If this level holds, then can expect a Gold rally.

I'm waiting to buy Gold.

Some experts recommend it is good to hold some gold in view of the economic downturn, although there is no place to hide.

Cash is still King with best returns over the long term.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Trading with Moons – December 2008

Will we test the lows in December 2008?

According to one FA (Financial Astrology) Master:

1. Moons are very good at marking turns within a few days when the markets get very emotional and volatile like now.

2. Full Moons are statistically lows but this one is a special case which only occur every 40 years or so. This one is the most powerful in over a hundred years.

3. Possible weakness early this week that rebounds into the December 15th Full Moon.

4. New Moons are normally highs, so expect December 27th New Moon to be a high.


Let's watch the Moons for possible guidance!

Monday, December 8, 2008

December 2008 Stock Market Forecast

December 7 2008 to January 4 2009

Fengshui
: Yang Wood Rat. Equity Markets should see strength in first half. Favourable industries/sectors : Fire, Wood, Earth.

Financial Astrology: Middle of month near December 12 a little negative, last week of calendar month is positive. Be cautious in long term bearish market.

Technical Analysis: US Indices – If Dow can break 8900 and S&P 500 can break 890, likely to see a multi-month bear market rally ahead. Pattern or extent of rally yet to be confirmed.


Be careful in view of differing views from the 3 Masters (Fengshui, FA and TA).

Maybe markets likely to test last low before staging a rally. Think capital preservation. Protect against downside risk.

Will we get a Santa Claus Rally?

Lookout for Weekly Updates!

December 8 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

December 8 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Markets unlikely to see strength except for December 8 and 12.

Astrology: A sudden and shocking event might cause equity markets plunging around December 10 to 15.

Technical Analysis: US indices – might decline Monday, rest of week depends on whether the indices can breakout of trading channel.

Friday, December 5, 2008

How Low/High can STI/Dow Go?

How high can STI go in the Bear Market Rally ahead?

That depends on how low STI can go now. So how low can STI go?

Have you read Daryl Guppy's article dated December 3, 2008?

Key points are:

  1. Current consolidation attempt with rebound from near 1500 has no historical foundation

  2. High probability STI will test support at 1300

  3. Traders wait for test of support between 1250 and 1300

  4. Then rebound rally with upside target near 1800

  5. Rise above 1800, expect rise towards 2220. Low probability outcome

Wow! That's the bad news and good news! How accurate is he?


Me, no idea! But my BMI shows a possible low of 1430 and high of 2050. These are dynamic indicators hor. Also depends on Lao Ta = Mr Dow!


So, what about Dow?


Daryl said recession support is 7500 while depression support is 5300.


So, be patient. Think Capital Preservation! Wait for Mr Market to call the bottom!


Thursday, December 4, 2008

Bear Market Rally Buy/Sell Rules

Possible Bear Market Rally Ahead will likely be very volatile. Barring unforeseen circumstances, stocks should rally over a longer time period. How long? Let you know later.

What unforeseen circumstances might occur during this Bear Market Rally? Never know man. War, terrorist attack, another Bear Stearns or Lehman case, epidemic or ???

So we need to protect against downside risk while riding the rally before Mr Market decides to make a u-turn - down again.

How?
  1. Pyramid Buying
  2. Inverted Pyramid Selling
  3. Buy on dips
  4. Sell before rally ends

So how long will this Bear Market Rally Ahead likely to last?

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead – Stock Picks 5

Will I invest in Unit Trust in this Bear Market Rally Ahead?

Hmm... I shall not take too much risk:

  1. Higher cost of investing in Unit Trust – outfront fees

  2. Difficult to time entry – price disadvantage

  3. Difficult to exit on time – price disadvantage

As it is difficult to control, I cannot manage my risk effectively since this market still has so much uncertainty and volatility. Volatility is expected even in the Bear Market Rally Ahead.

I plan to invest my CPF and SRS funds = my retirement funds. So it must be in safe investments which I can control and manage.

I intend to invest in STI ETF funds = capital appreciation and dividend income, in the Bear Market Rally Ahead.

With appropriate investing/trading rules, it should be a wise investment to me.

What investing/trading rules should I adopt in this Bear Market Rally Ahead?


Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Think Capital Preservation – Patience is Key!

Think Capital Preservation. Focus on protecting against downside risk.

That's the focus of my Big Picture Approach!

2 weeks ago, I warned my blog email subscribers not to buy too early in case the stock market crash will be bad over the next 3 weeks.

This week is the final week of the Yin Water Pig Month, November 2008. Looks like the water energy is still strong and back to kill the fire in the stock market.

When will the Bear Market Rally Ahead be?

Patience is key when markets are moving down.

Still some confirmation needed. Maybe after the next test of last "bottom" or low? If it holds, then ...

I'm hoping markets will drop to test last "bottom" or low, then maybe time to enter if it holds. Be patient.


Stock Market Forecast 2009 - TA

Todate, my blog has 56% Global Visitors (28% US) and 44% Singapore.

Hmm.. I shall share one important tip which should be of interest to my Global Visitors.

I have 3 categories of experts in my S.M.A.R.T. List, which I will now call them Fengshui Masters, TA Masters (Technical Analysis), and FA Masters (Financial Astrology).

One of my TA Masters had been providing very accurate US stock market forecasts for the past 4 months. And his Forecast for 2009 for S&P500 and DOW is in sync with my Fengshui Masters' forecast. He uses Elliott Wave, Fibonacci Ratios and many other indicators.

Interested to learn more about Elliott Wave?

There are 2 free online courses – crash course and 10 lessons from EWI.

Me? My "CPU" has limited capacity. I prefer to tap on the work of my S.M.A.R.T. List and continue my search for more and better Global Masters.

But I'll share with you about my views on Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Ratios in future.


Monday, December 1, 2008

December 01 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

December 01 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Uncertain and volatile

Astrology: Volatile and average week

Technical Analysis: US indices – might decline Monday, some possible upside

This week, US has a heavy schedule of potential market moving economic reports. Be careful.

George Lindsay Long Cycle: DJIA 20 Year Cycle

I just found and read an article which Ed Carlson wrote in 2014 about George Lindsay's Long Cycle, see extracts below: If point A = ...