Tuesday, November 18, 2008

January 2009 Govt Budget-Early Market Rally?

PM Lee had announced that the Government's Budget Statement, traditionally delivered in late February, will be unveiled a month earlier, before the Chinese New Year which falls on January 26, 2009.

Will this make the stock market rally in January and February 2009, so we all can “Huat Ah” all the way into Chinese New Year? Hahaha, Gong Xi Fa Cai! Cai Yuan Kun Kun Lai!

Also, did you notice that many analysts are forecasting a possible economic recovery in second half of 2009? As stock market is usually 6 to 9 months ahead of the economic cycle, will the stock market start to rally before then?

I dun think the global economy will recover so soon. Even PM Lee said “We are already in recession and we expect a 'U-shaped' recovery with a fat 'U'. At the same time, we must be ready for more surprises.” He reckoned that the recession would last a year but beyond that there could be several years of slow growth before things get back on track. (source Business Times Nov 17, 2008).

But that does not mean stock market cannot rally hor!

Food for thought!

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