Wednesday, November 12, 2008

DOW/STI Chart for 2009?

How will the Dow or STI Chart for 2009 look like?

My forecast, this is a possible preview of the Chart for 2009. It is the weekly Dow chart for 1929 to 1930. (click on image to zoom out)

"The significant features are:

  1. The rapid fall is followed by a rebound and rebound failure;
  2. The primary rebound failure occurs rapidly with another market collapse;
  3. The pile driver low is retested within 12 months;
  4. Support, defined by the pile driver low, is not successful.

The low of the market develops in 1932, about three years after the 1929 crash. The key trigger is the failure of support set by the pile driver low. The disaster is that it takes 25 years for the market to exceed the high of 380 set in July 1929. This is why the Depression is referred to as a generational event. The current situation has the potential to have the same generational impact.”

Where is Dow or STI heading now?

"The pink circle shows the comparable position of today’s market. This is a period of high volatility, but volatility lessens and the market moves into a more clearly defined trending behavior. This pattern of behavior suggests that a rebound from the current support levels may persist for around 20 weeks.”

"Markets will not behave the same way as in 1930, but they will develop in a similar fashion. There is a high probability that these behaviors will develop in shorter time frames.”

Text in blue were extracted from Daryl Guppy's article published on CNBC website yesterday.

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