Friday, November 28, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead – Stock Picks 4

Did you read 2 very interesting articles which appeared in yesterday's Business Times? Read my comments in blue.

First Article - Asian markets to see 2009 rebound: S&P

"We suspect that first-quarter 2009 is likely to reveal ugly corporate performances and this may dampen sentiment in first-half 2009. With economic growth anticipated to rebound in second-half 2009, we believe that equities are likely to have a strong fourth-quarter 2009 as the recovery becomes apparent and investors begin to re-rate stocks upward.”

Hey, Mr Market always look ahead about 6-9 months, so how would the stock market perform in the first half of 2009? And if later the economy is not expected to recover so soon, what would happen to the stock market in the second half? Read my Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox!

Second Article: What might 2009 hold for Stocks?

Summary of key points and my comments:
  1. If most experts agree that a recovery will occur in second half of 2009, the writer say buy stocks before end of first half. Hmm... if you believe him, then you might be catching the falling knives! Read my Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox. Never believe these experts or analysts after what happened to 2008.
  2. "China stocks are high on the list of what to avoid. There's good reason why these counters have lost 70-80 per cent in 2008 and it isn't just earnings worries that will continue to plague the sector, but also credibility, governance and survival issues.” Hmm.. I agree.
  3. "Avoiding property stocks for the first six months at least. Like China, the sector benefited from overblown expectations, lax analyst recommendations, easy credit and insufficient consideration of risk. Moreover, the physical market has not even begun to correct meaningfully yet and it could be years before prices find a bottom.” Hmm.. I suggest to put it high on avoid list.
  4. "Between banks and conglomerates, the latter are probably better positioned to ride out the global downturn. Local banks have been too reliant on the domestic property market for their loans and lack a diversified revenue base within the region, let alone further afield. Their numbers can only worsen with time and so it would be best to avoid the sector for now. Government-linked conglomerates offer much better exposure to an overseas upturn, so these stocks would be worth keeping an eye on.” Hmm.. I agree
  5. "For now, though, it would be wise to keep in mind that cash is king and patience is a virtue - at least for the next 5-6 months.” Hmm.. I agree but after possible Bear Market Rally Ahead is over!

Some more tips and considerations?

Read Stock Picks 1, Stock Picks 2, Stock Picks 3, Stock Picks 5

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead – Stock Picks 3

If you have been following my blog since I started end July 2008 or have read all my blog articles, I guess you already know my Approach to Beat the Market.

My objective is to make money by focusing on the Big Picture. Me no value investor or long term investor if the Big Picture is no good.

How do I know what's the Big Picture?

I got my Crystal Ball to look into the future. Read:

1. Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years
2. Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox

I use Fengshui for Risk Management and Market Timing.

I'll only enter/exit based on Fengshui Forecast. So my Stock Pick Tips are only good for the Possible Bear Market Rally Ahead. When the Rally is over, we must exit all stocks, before the Big Bear Comes Back from Hibernation!

More tips & considerations?

Read Stock Picks 1, Stock Picks 2, Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead – Stock Picks 2

So what are my criteria for stock picks to ride the Possible Bear Market Rally Ahead?

1. Fengshui Forecast - the best sector/industry which is likely to perform well in the next few months is Wood Industries – See Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox. The best category is Agriculture. I'm going for it.

2. Technical Analysis – some of my expert in S.M.A.R.T. List forecast that Oil is likely to rebound in the next few months. So, I'm might be looking at oil-related counters such as oil-rig business.

3. Only a Bear Market Rally – focus on STI component stocks, ie the blue chips for item 1 & 2.

Any other tips and considerations?

Hmm... Lookout for Part 3 lor!

Read Stock Picks 1, Stock Picks 3, Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead - Stock Picks

Don't miss the Ox-portunity to make money when the Bear Market Rally comes!

I'm getting ready to charge and ride on this Ox-portunity to ring in an Ox-picious Chinese New Year!

Are you ready?
Have you done your homework?
Have you done your stock picks?
What is your stock pick criteria?

Oh, I have not shared with you another secret on my BMI.

My BMI has a twin indicator. It also indicates how high the STI or the stock might go. This is one of my criteria for stock picks.

I'll be focus this time: limit the number of stocks I'll hold or trade.

When will the bear market rally come?

Read Stock Picks 2, Stock Picks 3, Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

Monday, November 24, 2008

November 24 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 24 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Unlikely to see strength

Astrology: Market continues to be volatile

Technical Analysis: US indices – might decline further

This is shortened week for US market with quite a heavy schedule of important reports. Friday is a new moon. Will we continue to see rolling bottoms?

Friday, November 21, 2008

Best Six Months - Investment Strategy

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, just staying invested in the stock market for the best six months and then switching into fixed income for the other six months had produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.

Wow! So which is the best six-month period of the year?

Yes! November to April. Remember “Sell in May and go away!

So how do I decide when to enter and exit during this best six-month period?

1. Use the MACD signal.

2. Starting in Oct, monitor and wait for the MACD to turn positive, then enter the next day.

3. Starting in April, monitor and wait for the MACD to turn negative, then exit the next day.

4. If the market is down trending, entry is usually delayed until the market turns up, while exit point can come a month earlier. In 2007, the MACD turned positive on November 28, 2007 for S&P 500.

5. Use the MACD signals only to enter and exit as the market's favourable (October/November) and unfavourable (April/May) seasons approach. All other MACD signals through the year should be ignored.

Hmm... I shall use this together with my other Stock Market Forecast tips to Beat the Market!

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Games Stock Traders Play

Having a better understanding of stock market dynamics should help increase the probability of winning the game?

What games do stock traders and investors play?

Daryl Guppy shared his views in an article published on CNBC website on Tuesday, November 18 2008, key points are:
  1. Traders and investors are constantly playing games in the market.
  2. Market volume is a record of such activities.
  3. Careful analysis of the relationship between price and volume tells us which game is in play.
  4. What games are out there?

Pump & Dump: This is where desperate individuals play bully with a small stock and use small volume trades to “pump up” price. This price rise is irresistible to other traders and they buy in the hope the price rise will continue. They are tagged when the price manipulator “dump” or pulls out of the market.

Hide and Seek: This is when an investor tries to build a large position in a stock without causing the price to rise.

Catch that Rally: This is when investors capture a short burst of activity in a fast moving rally that, if traded correctly, can deliver good short-term profits for low risk before the rally retreats or moves sideways.

Pass the Parcel: The game starts with volume based on rumor. The aim of this game is not to be left holding the stock when the rumor is either confirmed or dismissed in the market.

How do you know which game is being played?

Read more in Daryl Guppy's article on how to recognise the Pump & Dump Game!

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox

Since Fengshui is my best risk management and market timing tool, Fengshui Forecast for 2009 will be featured in my Crystal Ball – Stock Market Forecast 2009:

Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox

Year 2009 is Yin Earth Ox Year or Ji Chou Year, with earth on top of earth or pure earth elements.

It starts on February 4, 2009, ends on January 4, 2010.

In general, earth will bring the mood of worry or meditation. So investors will be more cautious and practical. So 2009 will be a year of continual cooling down, showing signs of more stability and calmness. Despite the absence of fire element, the spring and summer months still show strong wood and fire influences bringing a steady upward trend in the stock market.

In summary:

  1. First half will be better than second half

  2. Favourable Industries/Sectors = Wood, Metal

Wood Industries/Sectors:
eg. Agriculture, education, fashion, textile, furniture, publications, paper, media, newspaper and magazines, water treatment.

Metal Industries/Sectors:
eg.Gold, automobiles, engineering, hardware, high technology.

Read other related articles:

Stock Market Forecast - Preview 1 and Preview 2

Dow/STI Chart for 2009

S&P 500 / STI Charts for 2009

S&P 500 / Dow / STI Charts for 1Q2009

Best Six Months - Investment Strategy

January 2009 Govt Budget - Early Rally?

Stock Market Forecast 2009 - TA

More Fengshui Stock Market Predictions

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

January 2009 Govt Budget-Early Market Rally?

PM Lee had announced that the Government's Budget Statement, traditionally delivered in late February, will be unveiled a month earlier, before the Chinese New Year which falls on January 26, 2009.

Will this make the stock market rally in January and February 2009, so we all can “Huat Ah” all the way into Chinese New Year? Hahaha, Gong Xi Fa Cai! Cai Yuan Kun Kun Lai!

Also, did you notice that many analysts are forecasting a possible economic recovery in second half of 2009? As stock market is usually 6 to 9 months ahead of the economic cycle, will the stock market start to rally before then?

I dun think the global economy will recover so soon. Even PM Lee said “We are already in recession and we expect a 'U-shaped' recovery with a fat 'U'. At the same time, we must be ready for more surprises.” He reckoned that the recession would last a year but beyond that there could be several years of slow growth before things get back on track. (source Business Times Nov 17, 2008).

But that does not mean stock market cannot rally hor!

Food for thought!

Monday, November 17, 2008

November 17 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 17 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: First half weak, second half some possible strength

Astrology: Volatile , expect huge price swing near end of week

Technical Analysis: US indices – decline likely to resume, possible change late week.

This week is options expiration week for US market. Weekly patterns indicate it is normally a positive week.

Stock market crash is defined as a drop of 15%. US indices already dropped more than 15% post- election. We already witnessed a mini crash. Will the stock market crash continue for the next 3 weeks?

Based on Fengshui, December starts on December 7, 2008.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Stocks with Bottoming Signals?

Did you notice some stocks with bottoming signals?

Some brokers were reporting the same stocks with bottoming signals the past 2 weeks. Is it a sign that STI is bottoming out too?

Beware that such chart patterns can fail. Beware of those reports which have business interest?

Now STI might be trying to test the last low of 1474. Will it form a double bottom or will the last bottom be broken?

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Stock Trader's Almanac 2009 – Summary?

I managed to get a free copy of the Stock Trader's Almanac 2008 yesterday. Now I understand what this book is trying to say.

It actually uses historical data to identify possible market trends or patterns by day, week, month, year and periods, etc and then predicts the possible market trend for the year.

Below is a summary of the Forecast for 2009 that I found while surfing the internet. It ryhmes and riddles, so need to guess what it is trying to tell us hor!

How the Markets Perform (Monthly Market Trends)

"The following verses are excerpted from the beginning page of each month in the Stock Trader's Almanac 2009. Each verse offers insights on how markets have historically fared during each month of the year.

October: October has killed many a bear. Buy tech stocks and soon wear a grin ear to ear.
November: Astute investors always smile and remember. When stocks seasonally start soaring, and salute November.
December: If Santa Claus should fail to call. Bears may come to Broad and Wall.
January: 20th Amendment made “Lame Ducks” disappear. Now, “As January goes, so goes the odd-numbered year.”
February: Either go short, or stay away. The day before President’s day.
March: March has Ides and St. Patrick’s Day. Begins bullishly, then fades away.
April: April “Best Month” for Dow since 1950. Day-before-Good Friday gains are nifty.
May: Was Number One month for nine straight years. But five out of the last ten have caused May tears.
June: Last Day of June not hot for the Dow. But for stocks on NASDAQ, WOW!
July: When Dow and S&P in July are inferior. NASDAQ days tend to be even drearier
August: August’s a good month to go on vacation. Trading stocks will likely lead to frustration
September: September is when leaves and stocks tend to fall. On Wall Street it’s the worse month of all "

Remember “History is a guide, not Gospel”

I've never tested it's forecast, so not sure how accurate hor. Anyway, this is the first time I'm reading it in detail since I got the free e-book.

Alamak! Just found out the above also the same as Stock Trader's Almanac 2008!

Nevermind, let's check out the details at Kinokuniya, hope it is available!

Friday, November 14, 2008

SharesInvestment Rewards for Survey!

I think it was about a month ago that I participated in this online survey by I thought it was a lucky draw type of survey, so did not blog about it.

I was surprised to receive a Pair of Movie Tickets for participation in the survey. So it was every participation gets rewarded!

Ha ha, I can take my mum for free movie liao! The tickets are valid for one year, so I can wait for good chinese movie to come, which my mum will like lor!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Forecasting Economic Cycle with K-Wave

Kondratieff Cycle also known as K-Wave has a 60-year cycle, divided into 4 seasons of 15 years each. The 4 seasons can be associated with the 4 phases of the Economic Cycle and can be mapped into the Stock Market Cycle.

Look at the chart below (left). We are now in the Winter Season, similar to 1929-1949 period!

And if we convert the DOW chart to Gold$ mapped into the K-Wave, looks like there is more room to fall! See chart below (right).

(Source: the longwaveanalyst)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

DOW/STI Chart for 2009?

How will the Dow or STI Chart for 2009 look like?

My forecast, this is a possible preview of the Chart for 2009. It is the weekly Dow chart for 1929 to 1930. (click on image to zoom out)

"The significant features are:

  1. The rapid fall is followed by a rebound and rebound failure;
  2. The primary rebound failure occurs rapidly with another market collapse;
  3. The pile driver low is retested within 12 months;
  4. Support, defined by the pile driver low, is not successful.

The low of the market develops in 1932, about three years after the 1929 crash. The key trigger is the failure of support set by the pile driver low. The disaster is that it takes 25 years for the market to exceed the high of 380 set in July 1929. This is why the Depression is referred to as a generational event. The current situation has the potential to have the same generational impact.”

Where is Dow or STI heading now?

"The pink circle shows the comparable position of today’s market. This is a period of high volatility, but volatility lessens and the market moves into a more clearly defined trending behavior. This pattern of behavior suggests that a rebound from the current support levels may persist for around 20 weeks.”

"Markets will not behave the same way as in 1930, but they will develop in a similar fashion. There is a high probability that these behaviors will develop in shorter time frames.”

Text in blue were extracted from Daryl Guppy's article published on CNBC website yesterday.

Recession vs Depression Chart Patterns?

Will US and the Global Economy be in a Recession or Depression?

The stock market can give the clue? How? Look at the Chart patterns!

Below comments were extracted from Daryl Guppy's Article published in CNBC website yesterday:

1. “A recession is an economic slowdown that may last for 6 to 18 months. A depression is an economic pullback that may last from two to four years.”

2. “In a recession, the market will develop strong trending behavior many months prior to the official confirmation of the end of a recession. This recovery provides trend trading opportunities.

In a depression the market will develop a long-term consolidation pattern. This is an investment period that lays the foundations for generational fortunes. Trend-trading opportunities do not develop for several years. This consolidation and accumulation phase concentrates on creating income flow from dividends. The fundamental end of a depression is not recognized until many months after the market has already reacted.

3. The key trigger that separates a recession from a depression is the behavior of the rebound from the pile driver low.

Recession behavior - After the 1987 crash, the rebound quickly developed strong trending behavior. The move above the midway point in the market fall signaled a continuation of the uptrend. See chart. (click on image to zoom out)

Depression behavior is when the market fails to move above the midpoint of the extreme fall area.

On the current Dow chart, the area near 12,000 is the key level to watch. Failure to move above this level suggests a depression scenario may develop.

A sustained move above 12,000 signals a recession. There is one caution in this analysis. The Dow has not yet developed a confirmed pile driver bottom pattern on the weekly chart. The low of this pattern will determine the mid-point resistance level that is used to signal a recession recovery. See chart in DOW/STI Chart for 2009?

ES Contracts vs Warrants/CFD ?

Still remember the new SGX product I mentioned in August 2008 Article “ETF, Alternative to Stock Picks” ?

Yes, finally, Singapore Exchange Limited (SGX) announced on November 5, 2008 that it will launch Extended Settlement (ES) Contracts on 23 January 2009, previously referred to as Single Stock Derivatives (SSDs).

ES Contract is a forward contract traded on the SGX Securities Market:
  1. Can Buy or Short Sell the underlying stock listed on SGX
  2. Can settle up to 35 days later
  3. No finance charge.

Looks like better than trading warrants or CFD – no time decay, no finance charge, more price transparency (not controlled by market maker). Best of all, can short sell, can profit from Bear Markets. Hope it includes STI ETF, then I can short sell lor!

I'm going to attend the free seminar to find out more.

Interested? Register online at SGX (seems there is some problem with the system, so I register via email)

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Trading with Moons?

Using the Moon as Market Timing Indicator?

Yes, Trading with the Moons.

"You can buy Full Moons and sell New Moons, just like you can buy in November and sell in May. The Moons can be used as a guide to mark market turns when the markets get very emotional and volatile. Full Moons are statistically lows.”

November 13 is Full Moon (my lunar calendar marks November 12th as full moon)

"This was the 79th year anniversary of the final November 13th low of the October 29, 1929 crash. If we see a deep low near this Full Moon of November 13th, then the next New Moon of November 27th will most likely be a high. But if we do not see enough selling by the Full Moon, we may continue to decline towards the New Moon as well.”

Above quotes taken from one astro expert.

Let's watch the market, see if Trading with the Moons work with Singapore Stock Market.

Oh, today is 11/11/08, what can happen?

Monday, November 10, 2008

November 10 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 10 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Some strength but volatile

Astrology: Volatile, likely to move sideways

Technical Analysis: US indices – stocks might fall Monday, likely move sideway then decline.

November 2008 Monthly Stock Market Forecast – Technical Analysis had been updated. Be careful, likely Stock Market Crash in November. Read the Updated November 2008 Stock Market Forecast.

November 13 is the 79th anniversary of the Oct 29, 1929 Stock Market Crash. Remember it was the post crash low – see A replay of 1929 Stock Market Crash. Will it be the low for 2008? Or will the low occur in December 2008, tracking the history of 1987 Stock Market Crash?

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Commodity & Oil in 30-Year Cycle?

One source said Commodity & Oil has a 30-Year Cycle:

10 years up + 20 years down = 30-Year Cycle

History of Highs: 1860, 1890, 1920, 1950, 1980 and 2010?

So, is Commodity & Oil still in Bull Run?

Will it top out in 2010?

Is it safe to invest in Commodity & Oil related stocks?

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Success Through Foresight!

Who say Stock Market Crash cannot be predicted?

We witnessed the worst Stock Market Crash in 2008, Black October, that was forecasted here!

How did I do it? Oops, I mean how my expert resources (S.M.A.R.T. List) did it?

  1. Fengshui has a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on the 5 elements.
  2. Financial Astrology has a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on planetary arrangements.
  3. Technical Experts have a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on effective technical indicators, chart patterns, elliott wave and fibonacci. And not forgetting the Hindenburg Omen!

The Art of Foresight – the # 1 Secret Ingredient of Success!

Get Early Warnings, Get Confidence to Take Wise Risks, Preserve and Grow Wealth through Foresight!

December 2008 Stock Market Forecast and ?

Interested to know the Stock Market Forecast for December 2008 early? What about January 2009?

Ok, if there is sufficient interest, I might consider working on it and sending such Stock Market Forecast out early via email. An additional bonus – Sector and Stock Picks which is most critical to ride Bear Market Rallies! All these will not be published in my blog.

You can register your interest and support for my effort via Get Email Updates (on right sidebar) and joining the Free EWI Club (on right sidebar below Get Email Updates).

I'm a EWI Club member and the best benefit from this Free Membership is when EWI declares a Free Week. Then I can access the Subscriber's Area for Free during that Free Week. The rest of the freebies you already know lor. Good stuff that give Foresight as I see it!

Thank you for your continued support.

(Updated Nov 17 - offer had lapsed)

Rising Risk of Hard Landing in China

Read this article by Dr Doom (Nouriel Roubini) published on Nov 4, 2008, “The Rising Risk of Hard Landing in China: The Two Engines of Global Growth – U.S. and China – are Now Stalling”.

Key points in the conclusion are:
  1. Risk of a hard landing in China sharply rising
  2. Global economy already headed towards a global recession
  3. U.S. contraction now dramatically accelerating
  4. First engine of global growth – the U.S. on the consumption side – now already shut down
  5. Second engine of global growth – China on the production side – on its way to stalling
  6. With 2 main engines of global growth now in serious trouble, a global hard landing now almost certainty
  7. Hard landing in China have severe effects on growth in emerging market economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America as Chinese demand for raw materials and intermediate inputs has been a major source of economic growth for emerging markets and commodity exporters
  8. Recent sharp fall in commodity prices and near collapse of Baltic Freight index are clear signals that Chinese and global demand for commodities and industrial inputs is sharply falling
  9. Global growth – at market prices – will be close to zero in Q3 of 2008, likely negative in Q4 of 2009 and well into negative territory in 2009
  10. So brace yourself for an ugly and protracted global economic contraction in 2009.

Friday, November 7, 2008

November 2008 Stock Market Forecast

November 7 to December 6, 2008

Fengshui: Yin Water Pig Month. Pig is a water element. So, water energy is extremely strong this month, that is the biggest enemy of the stock market. Water extinguishes Fire, so expect further stock market correction.
Favourable industries/sectors : earth, wood and water.

Financial Astrology: Market likely to rebound in second half (calendar month). Be cautious in long term bearish market.

Technical Analysis: US Indices – Uncertainties in technical indicators. Stock can either crash in next few weeks or move higher. (Updated Nov 9 - likely stock market crash in next few weeks, might break Oct 10 low, if break 7882 then 7197 might be tested)

Now, that's the problem with technical analysis – uncertainties in forecasting the short term direction. That's why I decided to look for alternatives and found Fengshui and Financial Astrology.

Anyway, lookout for November 10 Weekly Update, hopefully directions would be clear.

Read Dow Direction After Presidential Election for possible guidance?

Dun forget to watch A Replay of 1929 Stock Market Crash!

Dow Direction After Presidential Election?

2008 was the worst in history!

It is the fourth time that Dow had lost more than 1% the day after a Presidential Election Day, since 1900 and the worst in % terms.

Coincidentally, all the other 3 times occurred during the Great Depression and won by Democrat.

And how did Dow performed for the rest of the year in those 3 situations?

1932 -4.51% day after, -2.82% rest of year
1940 -2.39% day after, -0.64% rest of year
1948 -3.85% day after, -2.83% rest of year
2008 -5.05% day after, ???

(Source: B.I.G.)

What do you think will happen to Dow for rest of 2008? Will history repeat?

What do you think will happen to Dow after that?

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Direction of Straits Times Index (STI)

Do you read the daily Chinese Newspaper Zaobao?

Err.. my chinese not very good, words too chim I dun understand. But can roughly figure out what it is talking, at least can recognise the numbers lor.

Recently, my sister informed me there are technical analysis articles in Zaobao. So I try to follow, reading online, looking for English Headlines then switch to read the detailed Chinese Articles. Below is a copy of “Technical Analysis on STI” published on Monday, November 3, 2008.   

 本栏于上周一(27日)曾预估指数目前正处“肯跌低”周期,其特性为跌势猛、跌幅大,过后长时间在低位波动。10月28日指数更是一度下挫至 1473.77点,幸好当天以1666.49点闭市,遂成了“一日转向”讯号,上周五(31日)又以1794.20点闭市,也于其每周一杆图中出现“转向 ”讯号,因此,估计短期内当向上回扯,并填补介于1894.87点至1920.79点及介于1991.07点至2059.39点间的缺口,而整个回扯很可能在11月中旬结束,过后指数当重新进入跌势。投资者宜乘此次回扯脱身,正是“三十六着走为上着”。

Most important point – correction might occur mid-November, 2008.

On October 25, he wrote “DOW might bottom in 2013”. The rest I cannot figure out what it is talking, 2016 was mentioned.

If you understand chinese, remember to follow his articles. The links are included above. Also included on right sidebar.

Asian SARS vs American SARS

In 2003, we had the Asian SARS which affected Asia, then spread to the rest of the world.

Now, we have the American SARS"Severe American Recession Syndrome”

Oops, this term is taken from Daryl Guppy's article posted on CNBC Website. He wrote:

"We use the monthly S&P 500 chart to measure the temperature and track the recovery.” It might take 1 -2 years to recover.

"Market always fall more rapidly than they rise, simply because you do not need money to be able to lose money. The rebound from the recession target at 800 will be slow because new money is required to fuel a new uptrend. Any rebound from the depression targets will be difficult because the quantum of wealth destruction requires a new generation to develop new wealth before money is available for a new bull market.”

Refer to Chart Patterns and Time for chart of S&P 500 and depression targets.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Credit Crisis Survival Kit

I read 2 reports previously in August, issued by the company of Robert Prechter (Elliott Wave International), the author of the book "Conquer the Crash”. The reports provided a forecast of DOW using Cycle Theory, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci numbers. So I'm recommending EWI's latest, Credit Crisis Survival Kit.

Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit

Before it became the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression, the credit crisis used to be an arcane topic discussed only in financial publications. Now, it's on every computer, television screen, and front page of every newspaper in the world.

It may have you worried about what you can do to get through it with your personal finances still intact. What can you do about it?

Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit

Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm, put together this free resource featuring 15 hand-picked reports and videos that will show you:

1. How we got into this mess
2. How to survive and prosper from it
3. When you can expect the crisis to end

The detailed analysis covers topics worrying you and millions (if not billions) of other people around the world who are learning more and more about the dangers of the Credit Crisis every day.

Here are just 5 of the 15 topics covered:

· How Do I Find a Safe Bank?
· What Happens During a Credit Implosion?
· How Do I Ride Out this Crisis?
· What If You Can’t Sell Your House?
· Buy & Hold or Sell & Fold?

Read All 15 and Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave InternationalFounded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Chart Patterns and Time

Technical analysts claim they can predict the market psychology by looking at chart patterns. However, my observation is they are unable to predict the time the chart patterns will complete. Some technical analysts use additional parameters to predict the time of market turns. Again, they have difficulty predicting the time the chart patterns will complete.

But when I use Fengshui forecast together with the chart patterns, the market timing was perfect. Fengshui can forecast the market psychology.

So, it takes time for the chart patterns to form and complete. A lot of patience is required before we can confirm the continued downturn or reversal in the chart patterns.

2 famous trend reversal patterns are the Head and Should Pattern and the M Pattern or Double Top Pattern. Below is an analysis done by Daryl Guppy on October 27, 2008:

"The DOW is using the slope of the Head and Shoulder pattern neckline as a resistance level. This will limit the ability for the market to recover. Strong resistance is at 10000. The downside support level is near 7500. Watch for consolidation behaviour near this level. The next strong historical support level is near 4000. This is true Depression territory.

S&P 500 is forming an M Pattern. The long term support near 1060 failed. It will act as a resistance level. The valley support level in 2002 is near 780. This is a strong rebound point, but prior to 2002 it had no historical basis as support. Traders will be very alert for rebound and consolidation activity to develop near this support level. Failure to hold puts a Depression downside near 420."

(click on the diagram to zoom out)

One method to confirm a trend reversal of the Head and Shoulder Pattern is the formation of a Double Bottom. A double bottom, followed by A and V patterns as shown in the diagram, confirms the reversal. Another reversal pattern is the inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern. It takes time for the patterns to complete. Time can be in months or years!

Can you tell when the M Pattern formation in the S&P 500 will complete? Can you see the long term trend?

Monday, November 3, 2008

November 3 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 3 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market continues to be weak and struggling

Astrology: Extremely negative especially Nov 3 (history of serious worldwide sell-off on such planetary arrangements)

Technical Analysis: US indices – stocks might fall Monday, depending on US election, huge movements up or down.

This week, Wall Street's got heavy schedule of market moving reports, the big one is on Friday – monthly job numbers. Then Tuesday is US Election.

So, is another stock market crash coming?

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Sell in May & Go Away!

The words of market wisdom, "Sell in May and go away", proved to be spot on again!

Also known as the "Halloween Indicator", stock market returns are usually higher in the November-April period than those in the May-October period.

One study noted that this pattern worked after both the Crash of 1929 and 1987.

People dun understand why this pattern occurred, though they have some explanations which do not appear to explain this puzzle convincingly.

Hmm.. think I can solve this puzzle now!

It's got to do with Fengshui & Stock Market!

So should we buy in November 2008, then sell in May 2009 and go away?

Should we observe this market wisdom for the next 7 or more Bear Years?

Hmm.. Bear "Kor Kor" (chinese meaning brother), please take a break and have a kit kat!

Saturday, November 1, 2008

911 Crash Part 2?

One astro expert predicts the 2008 version or Part 2 of the 911 crash. He said the current planetary arrangement is similar to the 1929 to 1932 planetary arrangement. And November 4, 2008 has similar planetary arrangement as that of 911.

So, will a terrorist attack occur on November 4, 2008 - US President Election Day? Would the Election be postponed?

He also predicts something might happen on 11/11/08 - this date is related to 11/11/11. (November 11, 2008 is a Holiday in US)

Will we continue to see a replay of the 1929 Stock Market Crash? A post crash low in November 2008?

Should I keep my Whole Life Policies?

I have a whole life policy (death/tpd) and another 3 for CI/TPD/death. I no longer need insurance for death as I do not have any depe...