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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Dr Doom - Global Stag-Deflation Coming?

The Coming Global Stag-Deflation?

"In London last Thursday, Dr Doom predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will go bust and stock markets may soon have to shut – perhaps for as long as a week – in order to stem the panic selling now sweeping the world. What happened? The next day trading was briefly stopped in New York and Moscow."

Dr Doom (Nouriel Roubini), a New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, talked to Bloomberg on October 27, 2008.

What does Dr Doom think is going to happen next?

  1. I fear the worst is yet to come ;
  2. 2 years of severe recession, not priced into market yet ;
  3. Significant downside risk for equities in US and Globally ;
  4. Stocks will fall sharply and go sideways ;
  5. Downside risk for commodities of 20% ;
  6. Risk of global stag-deflation (stagnation/recession plus deflation) .


Seems he is very accurate in his predictions, other than timing.

So be patient hor, dun catch the falling knives, dun try to call bottom. Dun be brave like Warren Buffet hor, he got deep pockets, can afford to lose, can afford to wait.

Let Mr Market call the bottom, then we take the ride up.


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