Sunday, August 31, 2008

ETF, an Alternative to Stock Picks?

Did you attend the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) Seminar by AmFraser Securities yesterday?

Hmm, you might have missed a lot! Even if you have attended, you might have missed something? Luckily, I am going to share with you lah!

Is ETF a better Alternative to Stock Picks and Unit Trust?

If you have problems with picking the right stocks, ETF might be a better alternative. ETF is also better than Unit Trust as you can sell at the price you want, besides many other reasons such as lower costs. There is no restriction on the use of CPFIS-OA funds for ETF, other than for Gold ETF. But there is restriction for purchase of stocks.

Hmm, radar on liao, if bear market rally do come, I'll consider ETF!

When will Wall Street Bottom Out?

Read Najeeb's Views.


New Products for Bear Market?

I got this information during tea-break, must kay poh a bit lah! I understand there is a possibility new products for Bear Market might be rolled out by SGX. Hmm, I shall wait for the announcements, but don't know when lah!

So, wanna consider ETF in your Investment Portfolio?

When Will Wall Street Bottom Out?

When Will Wall Street Bottom Out?

Najeeb of AmFraser Securities shared his views with the audience at the EFT Seminar on August 30, 2008.

I summarised Narjeeb's Views issued on August 29, 2008 as follows:
  1. S&P tends to peak 6 months (Oct 9, 2007) before recession begins (April 8, 2008)
  2. Average bear market lasts 12 months, can also go on for 2 or 3 years.
  3. October is known as "bear killer” in Stock Trader's Almanac. October has marked the end of 9 major markets – 1974, 1987, 1990 and arguably October 2002.

Wah! Stock Trader's Almanac, like doing Fengshui Forecast! Narjeeb also warned this may not be the final bottom!

Read his Full ETF Allocation Report.

Where is Property Market Heading?

My first stock trading course was taught by an experienced full-time trader in late 2005. He expected the bull run for property stocks to start soon. He also said normally property stocks bull run starts before property prices rise. The same applies when property stocks crash, property prices will follow.

I understand Property Market has a 10-year cycle. 5 days ago, Merrill Lynch issued a gloomy report on property stocks and property market. It said property market lags property stock prices by 12 months.

So you can guess where property stocks and property market will be heading lor!

Guess You Know this Trick! - Part 2

Just remembered I taught my sister this trick and it works! I never need to use it as I pay by GIRO.

One day, she received her credit card statement and found she was slapped with finance charge and interest for late payment. She forgot to make payment for her credit card on due date – she pays by cheque. Luckily when she discovered, it was only 1-2 days from due date. So she called the bank to request for waiver of the charges explaining she forgot payment was due and she already made payment at the branch immediately upon receipt of the statement. Guess what, it works!

Now she never forget to pay, as I "chai rud" for her already!


So try this trick if you have similar experience. Good luck!

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Using Hemlines To Forecast Stock Market?

Have you heard of the Hemline Theory?

It says stock prices tend to move in the same direction as the length of hemlines on dresses. Thus, rising hemlines are a bullish sign and falling hemlines are a bearish sign.

In US, Fall fashions are showing much longer hemlines this year.

If you need more evidence that US is in an economic slowdown, search no more.

One more economic indicator - there's the lipstick barometer! When the economy goes down, everyone in fashion knows that lipstick sales go up. Sales of lipstick during the first 6 months of 2008 were up 60% over the same period in 2007. The theory is women buy more lipstick in brighter colours to cheer themselves up!

(Adapted from Market Watch article Aug 11, 2008)

Hmm...more analysis to support my Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years! lol

Guess You Know this Trick!

I never keep track of when my credit cards will expire. Whenever I receive my statement and see annual membership fee and GST being charged, I get very upset. Why don't they automatically waive the fee when I have been a good customer, always pay on time!

Then I've to call them up and threaten them - “I just received my statement, didn't know my card expired. Can the annual fee be waived/reversed, otherwise I terminate the card.”

Then the customer service will check, check, check, then say “ok, we'll waive the fee. Please keep the card.”

Hahaha, this trick always work! Why? Customer is King lor!

Do you use the same trick?

Free Saxo Education on Stocks Trading!

Saxo Education website provides free online learning on Stocks and CFDs for Novice to Seasoned Experts. There are different levels of learning, from elementary to expert level, and you graduate with a Black Belt, like in karate!

I like the following sections:
  1. Beginner – Trends, Money Management
  2. Advance – Price Patterns, Trading Psychology
  3. Expert – Fibonacci
There are also online learning for other products like Forex and Futures. I've no interest.


Take a look, its worth it! Just less than 15 mins of my time!

Saxo Education is owned by Saxo Bank Group, an Investment Bank

Friday, August 29, 2008

Where is STI Heading?

STI Forecast by AmFraser Securities!

Did you read the STI Forecast from AmFraser Securities issued on August 27, 2008?


It was a long report. I summarised the key points here:

  1. STI likely to bottom in next 1-2 months, maybe October 2008
  2. Strong support around STI 2600, next STI 2500, then STI 2200
  3. Buyers likely come in below STI 2600
  4. Possible rally in December 2008/January 2009 from November 2008 to STI 2900/3000

Hmm.. now you know why AmFraser is my favourite for STI Outlook!

Read the detailed report here.

Is Wine Investment for Me?

At INVESTFAIR '08, they tried to talk me into Wine Investments. They claim it is better than fixed deposits, can earn more than 10% per annum or more for longer term investments. Now they keep sending me emails and asked me whether I'm interested.

I don't drink wine, don't appreciate or understand wine, its value or valuation. So I shall not take the risk.

If you are interested and want to find out more, there is a section in ShareInvestor website on Australian Wine Index Investment Education.

There you can read about the following:

  1. What is an investment wine?
  2. Why invest in Australian Fine Wine?
  3. What are the risks?
  4. Where to go for advice? And More

Click here to read more.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Have Your Lunch and Eat It!

This Bear Market is really a traders' market. Some make money doing contra trading (long or short), some make money short selling using CFD, while others might be losing money doing the same. I really feel sad when I read about people losing money in the various forums.

Market is so volatile, today is known, tomorrow is unknown. I like the way the Analyst from KELIVE said it during his daily lunchtime talkshow on Radio Capital 95.8. “Pu Yau Ta Pao” read this in chinese meaning “Have your lunch and eat it. Don't order take aways.” Why? Today is known, tomorrow is unknown. Got profit, better take and run before market close!

It's all about Timing!

8 Steps to Pick Winning Stocks

"The Big Money – 7 Steps to Picking Great Stocks and Finding Financial Security”, written by Frederick R Kobrick, has the following formula:
  1. BASM – Business Model, Assumptions, Strategy and Management of Great Companies
  2. Knowledge
  3. Patience
  4. Disciplines
  5. Emotions
  6. Time Horizon
  7. Market Timing
  8. Benchmarks


Actually there are 8 Steps, I think the Author package it differently. Oops, maybe I'm wrong. Nevermind, I'm more interested to find out the Singapore version of this.

Wonder what is Adam Khoo's formula to find the Golden Goose that lay the Golden Eggs! His seminar is titled “Value Investing - 8 Steps to Buy Great Stocks at Huge Discounts.”

I'll see if I can attend his seminar free. Interested? Click here.

Seminar by Adam Khoo on Value Investing

ShareInvestor is organising a seminar by Adam Khoo, Co-Founder and Executive Chairman ofAdam Khoo Learning Technologies Group Pte Ltd. Details as follows:

Seminar: Value Investing – The 8 Steps to Buy Great Stocks at Huge Discounts

Date: September 11, 2008 (Thursday)

Time: 7pm to 10pm

Location: AKLTG Training Centre, Keppel Towers

Fee: Free for ShareInvestor Members, S$5 for non-members

Interested? More information and registration here.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

What Tools and Technical Indicators Do I Use?

Tools - I use each for different purposes:
  1. ChartNexus
  2. Metastock -RMO indicator
  3. Nextview
  4. IG Markets – real-time Nikkei and Hang Seng Future Indices
I also monitor DOW futures, Nikkei and Hang Seng Indices real-time at times.


Technical indicators I use include:
  1. Parabolic SAR – trend indicators
  2. Moving Averages
  3. Stochastics
  4. MACD
  5. Price Channels

I also use 2 other indicators which cannot be found in any Tools that I know of. One of these indicators has helped me to spot bottoms very accurately in the past, be it STI or individual stocks. It is especially accurate during periods of extreme weakness or sell off. That's why I continue to use it. The other indicator helped me to identify stocks which are in congestion or range-bound, and the strength of overhead resistance.

What Tools and Technical Indicators do you use?

6 Golden Rules of Investment

This is a continuation of Part 1 posted on Aug 24, 2008 on What does “Thomas the Coach” Think?

As Thomas spoke like a machine gun, I did not managed to capture all the points. Then yesterday I checked his website and managed to get the answers.

So below are the 6 Golden Rules of Investment:
  1. Consistency vs Volatility (he refers to consistency of returns)
  2. Focus vs Diversification
  3. Capital Preservation
  4. Asset Allocation
  5. Value averaging vs Dollar cost Averaging
  6. Stay invested despite market shock (but in the right markets).
He also said Rules can change over time but Fundamentals do not. I noticed he changed Rules #2 and #5 as compared to what was posted on his website dated March 2008.

What are the 5 Fundamentals of Investment? (these were posted in Part 1 but with a different Heading)
  1. Global Liquidity
  2. Interest Rate Trend
  3. Leading Economic Indicators
  4. Market Valuation
  5. Risk Premium

Daily DOW Commentary

This site provides very good daily Dow Commentary:

1. Summary of what happened
2. Summary of what can happen next
3. Daily, Weekly, 15min and 60min charts
4. And more!

Just click here for the latest daily Dow Commentary!

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Are You Making Money in this Bear Market?

The Trend is Your Friend, whether you are a trader or investor. So ride the Trend, don't fight against the Trend. The ability to read the Trend correctly gives one the highest probability of success in making money from the stock market. With correct Timing, your probability of success increases.

Individual stock price movements are very much affected by the macro market trend, regardless of the fundamentals of the individual stocks. Macro market trend refers to US indices, Regional indices (ie Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai) and STI. STI is spineless and looks for its direction from US and Regional indices.

So are you adopting the correct strategy? The Trend determines the Strategy to be adopted. Are you short selling at high price and covering back at a lower price? Or are you still buying weakness to average down your cost of holdings?

Experts are recommending that people should short the market as that is the best strategy for Bear Markets. Ray Baros said that at INVESTFAIR '08. The analyst from KELIVE said that during the daily radio programme on Capital 95.8 at lunch time.

A word of caution though. I do not short sell although I know that's the best strategy to make money in this Bear Market. Short selling using CFD is a leverage product and involves higher risks. Unless you know what is a good entry/exit price for the stock and when to exit, you might lose money. To reduce your risk, you might want to consider using your own cash instead of using the margin allowed in the account. So you will not be subject to margin call.

I prefer to wait for indicators that a possible Bear Market Rally is coming!

Next Monthly Forecast

I've just inserted the Start and End dates for the August 2008 Forecast to reflect the Chinese Solar Calendar month. That means the forecast is valid until September 6, two more weeks to go before the next new month starts.

So the September 2008 Forecast when available will be from September 7 to October 7, 2008. It is the Yin Metal Rooster Month.

Monday, August 25, 2008

August 25 Wkly Update


Fengshui: market likely to be volatile


Astrology: possible stock market rally, take opportunity to get out.

Technical Analysis: US indices likely to pullback Monday, depending on what happens on Tuesday, high risk the big drop is due.


Remember Capital Preservation is key.

I will still focus on the BIG-PICTURE, see August 2008 Forecast

Do You Use Credit Cards to Save? - Part 2

My favourite food used to be Tony Romas' baby-back ribs as I thought it was the best. Whenever I'm on business trips, I will check whether there is Tony Romas in that country and have a great meal there. So far, Tokyo was the best! Now no more business trips liao!

Then one day I stumbled upon Cafe Cartel and tried the St. Louis Pork Ribs there. Wow, it was value for money, more delicious and better! Luckily my mum likes western food. She also likes the St. Louis Pork Ribs very much. Then she will say "so long never eat here". Oh dear, soon I will be like her! I better play more Viwawa Wahjong!

So I will occasionally pamper her with a good lunch or dinner of St. Louis Pork Ribs, eating out at Cafe Cartel on weekends. Also pamper myself lor! They are having this promotion for quite time, discounted price plus free upgrade to complete meal (depends which branch you go, ok). She will have the soup and coffee, while 3 of us will share the ribs plus free flow of bread. Hmm, the bread there is yummy! Depending on appetite, we might order another side or main dish. Then I pay using my Citibank credit card, get 15% discount!

Wow, really value for money! Yummy Yummy!

Now you know why I choose Cafe Cartel!

Sunday, August 24, 2008

What does “Thomas the Coach” Think?

At INVESTFAIR'08, I was invited to attend a seminar “Breaking the Millionaire Code” by Mr Thomas Mathew. I was told he will also touch on current market outlook and alternative investments. So I signed up for it since it is free. I've attended a seminar by Mr Thomas about 3 years ago and he is a very entertaining and inspiring speaker.

So yesterday morning, I attended the seminar. As usual, it was an entertaining session as he likes to joke. Most of the videos he showed I've seen last time and explains very well the message he tried to put across.

Some interesting points worth sharing here are:

4 Ways to be a Millionaire:

Business, Properties, Internet Marketing & Investment.
One more – Capture Mas Selamat!

Is it time to enter the Stock Market? Points to consider:

  1. Is there Global Liquidity? Looks like funds are getting out
  2. What is the Interest Rate Trend? US$ will be affected
  3. Valuation of the Market? Cheap might get cheaper
  4. Economic Indicator – looks bad?
  5. Risk Premium – how much risk are you taking?

Possible financial market tsunami, so capital preservation is key!

Hmm, he shared the same view as me. Wah, real or not! I mean he also talked about The Joseph Cycle and that the forecast had been very accurate so far!

What are the Alternative Investments?

  1. Gold – he thinks war is likely to breakout and gold price is likely to shoot up to US$1,500. He recently bought gold when price went below US$800.
  2. Some hedge funds which I don't qualify, meant for high network individuals, like SHK Fund, Man Fund which have low correlation with equities.
  3. Avoid infrastructure funds, high risk.
  4. Stay invested despite market shock, but in the right markets.


Note: Thomas Mathew is Senior Partner of IPP Financial Advisers Pte Ltd. They earn commissions from the Funds you invest with them.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Technical vs Fundamental Analysis? Is it Enough?

Generally, most traders would use technical analysis to make their trading decisions while investors would use technical and/or fundamental analysis for their investment decisions.

However, do you know that an increasing number of institutions, investors and even traders are also using views from another perspective?

Yes, Fengshui Analysis!

You might have already read or heard of the following:
  1. CLSA issued a report highlighting views from their Fengshui Master;
  2. ABN AMRO invited Fengshui Master to speak at their events;
  3. ShareInvestor, organisor of recent INVESTFAIR '08, invited Fengshui Master to speak;
  4. ICPAS invited Fengshui Master to speak;
  5. Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) invited Fengshui Master to speak.


My observations, in this Bear Market, is that technical indicators can fail and fundamentally good stocks can get short down.

So 2As are not enough, I need 3As - Technical, Fundamental and Fengshui Analysis!

So, the safest way to preserve my capital for the short term is to follow my Fengshui Masters forecast - My Crystal Ball (Monthly)!

And most important of all, Focus on the BIG-PICTURE - My Crystal Ball (The Future) – Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years!

That's 4As to Beat this Market – Technical, Fundamental, Fengshui and Cycle Analysis!

How to become an Automatic Millionaire?

My Economics Lecturer said CPF savings can make a person a millionaire by retirement! It is forced savings or automatic savings made monthly, and with the power of compound interest, we will be automatically millionaires by retirement! At that time, the CPF rate was at the highest.

After I started working, I made a few automatic savings plans to force myself to save for retirement. These are my Life & Health insurance plans. Not forgetting the primary purpose of buying insurance, I also wanted a second objective which is to ensure I get my money back. Since automatic or forced savings is a secondary purpose, I cannot expect my insurance plans to give me high returns. So long I can get my money back with interest, I'm happy. So long it is an asset and not an expense to me, I'm happy! Then I should be on my way to retiring rich!

Nowadays, people have more knowledge and seems to be spoilt with so many choices that they compare, analyse and analyse until they become paralyse, ie don't know what insurance to buy. I feel that we should not forget the primary purpose of a Life & Health insurance plan, and savings/returns are secondary!

Even if one try to save or reduce the cost of a Life & Health insurance plan (ie not a savings with returns plan), can one expect to be able invest the cost saved to get consistent returns over the long term? And not forgetting that one had already lost money by having an insurance plan which is an expense and not an asset in the first place. Oops, I'm not an insurance expert, I just want to make my life simple.

Just thinking out loud!

Friday, August 22, 2008

"Fengshui Calendar” = Chinese Solar Calendar!

My Fengshui Master (FSM) Resources uses the Chinese Solar Calendar or Hsia Calendar to do their forecasts.

The Chinese Solar Calendar is different from the western Gregorian Calendar and the Chinese Lunar Calendar. For eg.
  • Western Gregorian Calendar starts on January 1, 2008
  • Chinese Lunar Calendar starts on February 7, 2008 (also the first day of first lunar month or Chinese New Year)
  • Chinese Solar Calendar starts on February 4, 2008.

The Chinese Solar Calendar goes on a 60-year cycle. This means that we experienced the same Yang Earth Rat Year in 1948. The FSM use this as one of the source for review to forecast for 2008.

One interesting observation I have is some other FSMs use the Chinese Lunar Calendar to do their forecasts. So the 5 elements they assigned to the month may be different, thus affecting the reliability of their forecasts for the month. For eg, August 2008 according to the Chinese Solar Calendar is Yang Metal Monkey month which has double metal elements which is not favourable for Fire Industries/Sector like the stock market. FSMs using the Chinese Lunar Calendar might have a different forecasts indicating that August 2008 is favourable to the Fire Industries/Sector.

So if you want to do your own research or reading of the possible stock market direction, like me, please use the Chinese Solar Calendar!

My Birthday is Always Remembered!

My birthday is always remembered, not by my family or friends, but by third parties lor!

These third parties always showered me with free money! Ha ha, free money in the form of shopping vouchers, makan vouchers and/or discount vouchers.

Who are these third parties? They are:
  1. Phillip Securities - $20 Robinson Voucher (I'm a platinum member*)
  2. NTUC Income – Free meal voucher and other discount vouchers

So it pays to have such relationships!


* Market so sluggish leh, I trade less, so might not qualify for platinum member next year. I hope Phillip Securities would take this into consider and continue to extend the platinum membership to me for goodwill! I think my remiser is reading, please consider lor so I can still get to use Protrader free lor!

Do You Use Credit Cards to Save?

Do you use your credit cards to save money? Or do you use it to spend more money plus interest payment?

I always try to pay using my POSB Everyday Card because I can get discounts or rebates on my spending. To me, these are savings, i.e. reduces my expenses! What's more, I can use the savings or the rebates to pay for future purchases!

So I always lookout for extra discounts using the POSB Everyday Card at Carrefour, Watsons, etc.

So, Save by using Credit Cards! But don't over spend ok!

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years!

Crystal Ball (The Future) – Conclusion

Below is a summary of the forecasts for the possible end of Bear Market or start of next Bull Market:

  1. The Joseph Cycle Analysis – 2014 bottom
  2. Technical Analysis – 2014 to 2016 bottom
  3. Financial or Stock Market Astrology Analysis – 2010 to 2015 bottom
  4. Fengshui Analysis – 2014 start of Bull Market
(Click to read each detailed analysis. Read Technical Analysis Article to find out where I obtained the information from)

My conclusion is the next Bull Market will likely start in 2014 based on Fengshui Analysis. However, I'll wait till 2013 for the Fengshui Masters forecast before deciding to take long term positions.

Now, How do I Beat the Market? Read My Big Picture Approach

Good Luck!

Disclaimer


Read more ....

Beat Stock Market Jinx

STI chart for next 8 years?

How will the chart of DOW/STI for 2009 look like?

End of Bear Market in 2012?



Read Stock Market Forecast (2007 to 2017) for Update to this forecast.


Crystal Ball using Fengshui Analysis

My Fengshui Master resources I refer to in my previous posting do not provide forecasts for years ahead.

I shall attempt to interpret the possible strength for the stock market based on the 5 elements existing for each year. Please note me no fengshui master. I understand there are other factors they look at such as a hidden element in each year. I'm not sure whether the internet information I use to determine the 5 elements for each year incorporates this hidden element. Anyway, from past experience using the information from the Fengshui Masters, it looks pretty reliable.

Here is the forecast:

2009 Yin Earth Ox (Earth)
2010 Yang Metal Tiger (Wood)
2011 Yin Metal Rabbit (Wood)
2012 Yang Water Dragon (Earth)
2013 Yin Water Snake (Fire)
2014 Yang Wood Horse (Fire)
2015 Yin Wood Goat (Earth)
2016 Yang Fire Monkey (Metal)
2017 Yin Fire Roaster (Metal)

For information only, Yin means negative forces, Yang means positive forces. Each animal is assigned an element as indicated in brackets above. Each year will have 2 elements, one of which is the animal element. So for 2009, the elements are earth over earth. Generally, stock market will have strength when the fire or wood element exists. Metal element will weaken the stock market – eg. August 2008 is Yang Metal Monkey, double metal elements, so stock market undergoing a major correction or crash now. Water element will kill the fire so also no good for stock market.

Based on the elements favourable to the stock market, it appears that stock market should strengthen from 2014 onwards. Why? 2014 has Wood and Fire elements, together these should add a lot of strength to the stock market.

Hope the internet information is correct and my analysis is correct. So I will position for the next Bull Run there!

Not yet lah, to play safe, I will wait for my Fengshui Masters to issue their yearly forecast first!

Good Luck!

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Crystal Ball using Elliott Wave & Fibonacci

I read 2 reports issued by the company of Robert Pretcher, the author of the book "Conquer the Crash”. The reports provided a forecast of DOW using Cycle Theory, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci numbers. The cycle theory adopted includes 3.3-year, 4-year and 10-year cycles.

I summarise the forecast as follows:

  1. About 8 years of general bear market (both commodities and equities)
  2. Commodities likely to bottom in 2013
  3. Stocks (nominal terms) likely to bottom in 2014
  4. Stocks (real dollar terms) likely to bottom in 2016.
Based on The Joseph Cycle, Singapore Stock Market bear run is likely to end in 2014. So this does coincide with that forecasted for DOW in nominal terms.

To obtain your copy of the report from the expert, read November Article

My next forecast will be based on Financial or Stock Market Astrology Analysis.

Let's see whether the time frame coincides.


Crystal Ball using Financial or Stock Market Astrology Analysis

I read 4 reports prepared by the various resources I listed previously.

The forecasts are summarised as follows:

  1. 3 reports forecast a possible bottom in 2010. They also referenced the 4-year presidential cycle.
  2. 1 report forecast a possbile bottom between 2012 to 2015.
At least one does coincide with The Joseph Cycle forecast around 2014.

Let's see what is the possible forecast using Fengshui Analysis.

My personal take is I prefer to rely on Fengshui Analysis which is the most accurate of all the analysis todate. So lookout for this tomorrow!


Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Warren Buffet vs Lou Simpson - Principles of Investing?

Robert P Miles shared with the audience on the Principles of Investing of Warren Buffet and Lou Simpson on Sunday August 17, 2008 at INVESTFAIR '08. I'll bear in mind but will not follow now. Why?

If The Joseph Cycle is correct, now is not the time to bargain hunt, to invest in the stock market for the long term. I would prefer to wait till the market bottoms out at the end of the bear run to position my investments for the bull run to come. Now is the time for short term investing or trading, provided one can read the market trends or direction correctly, whether one goes long or short.

Preservation of Capital is my number one priority now.

Follow Warren Buffet's Rule #1 =Never Lose Money, Rule #2 = Never Forget Rule #1!

Follow George Soros = Survival First, Make Money Afterwards!

Even PM Lee said at his ND Rally last night, the slow down might continue till next year, but the experts think it might be longer!

"The Joseph Cycle is a time cycle. Whoever masters time is a master of events. Whoever masters himself is a master of men. Whoever masters himself and time, is a master of wealth” S Westgate Quote by The Joseph Cycle

Monday, August 18, 2008

Crystal Ball (The Future) – Research Series

I've already shared on the Crystal Ball (The Future) based on The Joseph Cycle (Part 1 and Part 2). According to The Joseph Cycle, the next 7 years will be a Bear Market.

As I've mentioned about my BIG-PICTURE approach before, I always liked to research and confirm using various sources, not just rely on one source to do the forecast.

So, in a series of future articles, I'll attempt to document and map out the forecast for the next 7 or more years based on the following analysis:
  1. Cycle Analysis – completed using The Joseph Cycle.
  2. Technical Analysis – research in progress
  3. Financial or Stock Market Astrology Analysis - research in progress
  4. Fengshui Analysis – research in progress
Keen to know what the future is in store for us based on the different analysis?

Stay tuned to my blog!

Thank you for your continued support!

August 18 Wkly Update

Fengshui: market likely continue weakness. (Point to note: my past experience showed Fengshui is very accurate in monthly forecast, quite ok in weekly forecast but no so chun for daily forecast. Anyway, I still share with you).

Astrology: volatile start of week then maybe more stable.

Technical Analysis*: US indices likely to pullback after options expiration week.

I will still focus on the BIG-PICTURE, see
August 2008 Forecast



INVESTFAIR '08 – End of Final Day 2!

Yesterday was the final day 2 of INVESTFAIR '08. I was there very early to ensure I get a chair to seat to listen to Ray Baros. Wow, it was full house again! For traders, what determines success? - winning psychology (60%), effective money management (30%) and written trading plan with edge (10%). But the single most important factor 95% of traders fail is because of unrealistic or unreasonable expectations, ie expectations that they can make high returns trading. I guess this is very much influenced by the newspaper advertisements and the talks of profits claimed by most trading courses! Ray said if Warren Buffet can only achieve 27%, don't expect too high!

As usual, I liked the panel discussion on “Market Focus for the Last Lap of 2008”, this time a different panel. Somehow I liked Mr. Ray Baros' views compared to the rest, I just feel they are not so independent in their outlook, you know what I mean - the paid analyst or journalist or with business interest! So we must do our own homework! By the way, Mr Ray is hedge fund manager, trader, etc, multi-hats guy! His view is the bear is here to stay until 2012.

I liked the talk by Mr Robert Miles on Warren Buffet Part 2. It was full house again and I've to sit on the floor again! This time I already heard about his closing joke, anyway I still laugh!

I look forward to another INVESTFAIR in 2009!

Sunday, August 17, 2008

INVESTFAIR '08 – End of Day 1

Yesterday, I was at INVESTFAIR '08 from 10am to 7.00pm, busy running around from one seminar to another and popping by the booths between free time! Wow, no time for lunch! Today I must bring my own lunch and water!

Were you at INVESTFAIR '08 today? Not to worry if you missed it as most of the seminars were video taped and will be loaded on the website for your free time viewing!

I liked the panel discussion on “Market Focus for the Last Lap of 2008”. I liked Mr. Steen Jakobson's candid closing remarks – don't listen to the paid analyst or journalist, do your own homework! By the way, he is a hedge fund manager!

I liked the talk by Mr Robert Miles on Warren Buffet, especially is his closing joke! There's a part 2 today. If you missed yesterday's session, remember to catch it today!

I also attended “Outlook for 2H08 and beyond” by Mr Song Seng Wun of CIMBK-GK. Hmmm..picture don't look so good, I expected it! The talk by Mr Ray Barros was interesting and there's a part 2 tomorrow. Yesterday, he gave a formula on how to calculate a safe buy/sell price when stocks are trading sideways!

And the good news, I was lucky again, I won a pocket clock from lucky dip at Capitaland's booth!

So see you at INVESTFAIR '08 today!

Saturday, August 16, 2008

The Joseph Cycle and the Singapore Success Story

The Joseph Cycle is also known as the 14-Year Cycle. It has 2 phases, i.e. 7-year Bull Run and 7-year Bear Run.

The first time I read the book, I was very amazed and impressed that Singapore has so much foresight, vision and leadership capabilities. In Chapter 8 of the book, significant events in Singapore were traced and mapped into the Joseph Cycle from 1987 to 2003. Coincidentally, most significant events fall into the 14 year cycle. Eg.:

1. In 1990, PM Lee Kuan Yew handed over leadership to Mr Goh Chok Tong. This occurred in the early phase of the 1988-1994 Bull Run.

2. In 2003, after 14 years of leadership, PM Goh announced BG Lee Hsien Loong as his successor.

3. PM Lee took over in 2004, which is 14 years after 1990. This occurred in the early phase of the 2002 Bull Run.

4. MRT and CPF cut occurred after the cycle bottom.

5. Property curb in 1996 occurred after the cycle top.

"Did they work with the Cycle or was the Cycle working without their awareness?”, the author remarked.

I also started to question are they working with the Cycle again, knowing the Bull Run will end in 2008 and the Bear Run of 7 years are due to come, when so much future events were planned, such as:

1. The 2 Integrated Resorts
2. F1 Race
3. Youth Olympic Games.

Hmmm, it's all about timing, the right time!

“We can never predict the future. But with Cycles we can anticipate the safe times and the dangerous times, the moment to take risk and the moment to conserve. The Joseph Cycle is a way to be wealthy, a method to protect wealth and a tool for survival.” quote from The Joseph Cycle.

Friday, August 15, 2008

7 Essential Money Skills!

What are the 7 Essential Money Skills to achieve financial freedom?

I attended the free 3-hour workshop conducted by Adam Khoo about 3 years ago and another different one 2 years back. He is a very motivational and inspiring speaker. I became more positive in my outlook and started to remove all the self-limiting thoughts I have. What I do and think are very much influenced by my background and upbringing, and these need to be removed before I can dare to dream, dare to be different!

According to Adam, here are the 7 Essential Money Skills:
  1. The Mindsets and Habits of Self-made Millionaires
  2. How to Design Your Financial Destiny
  3. Develop a Solid Road Map to Your Financial Goals
  4. Build Multiple Income Streams from the Ideas in Your Head
  5. The Cash Flow Management Strategies of the Rich
  6. How to Invest for Higher Returns with Minimal Risk
  7. How to Make Your First Million in the Shortest Period
The free workshops are held quite frequently and I always tell my relatives and friends to attend. No harm, you have a lot to gain and nothing to lose!

Visit AKLTG to find out his workshop schedule and register!

(I'll be very busy as today is the biggest day of the Hungry Ghost Festival, 15th day of 7th lunar month. So that's all for today.)

Thursday, August 14, 2008

5 Things You Should and Should Not Do in A Bear Market

What are the 5 Things you should and should not do in a Bear Market?

According to the book "Conquer the Crash, you can survive and prosper in a deflationary depression" by Robert Prechter Jr:

1. Should you speculate in stocks?: No
2. Should you invest in commercial bonds?: No
3. Should you invest in commodities?: Mostly No
4. Should you invest in real estate?: No
5. Should you invest in cash?: Yes

Read the book to find out more!

"Take control of your money, take control of your life!"

Some food for thought!

Free Seminars with AmFraser and More!

Win Win Strategy in ETF Allocation by AmFraser Securities
August 30, 2008 (Saturday), 9am to 12noon

"AmFraser's second seminar in the ETF Allocation series is set to present new angles and strategies to enhance investment objectives, ie. to change investors' paradigm to look at ETF as a mid to long term investment vehicle. This event is held in conjunction with the launch of AmFraser's second ETF Allocation report, highlighting the outlook of the various single country ETF performances."

Place: Capital Tower STI Auditorium, Capital Tower, 168 Robinson Road, Level 9


Registration: Call (65) 6534 5345 or email marketing@amfraser.com.sg


SGX Live Webinairs - F
ree online 2-part presentation.

Part 1: Fundamentals of Trading SGX MSCI Asia APEX 50 Index Futures
28 August 2008 (Thursday), 9pm to 10.30pm


"Topics to be covered include outlook for Asian Markets, market components and contract specifications, trading and rollover."

Part 2: Outlook & Profit Management of SGX MSCI Asia APEX 50 Index Futures
2 September 2008 (Tuesday), 9pm to 10.30pm


"Topics to be covered include understanding market allocation & correlation, portfolio hedging using ETFs, trading risk management and market forecast."

Registration: https://interactivebrokers.webex.com/interactivebrokers/onstage/g.php?t=a&d=713159507&SourceID=SGX

Free Pocket Book Series for Retail Investors!

One day, I found a book in my letter-box. Later that day, I received a message from my nephew that he got it mailed to me. The next day, I received another book! Oh, he got it free by answering a simple online quiz, and the author will automatically mail it to the address free! Since I got it around my birthday, I take it as a birthday present from him lor!

I decided to check it out at the website and found this book titled "Sun Tzu on Investing". I want it, but it is not free yet! I shall wait patiently for it be classified free.


Wanna get the pocket book series on investing free?

Visit Wall Straits

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Earn Points & Win with MyMailMoment!

Yesterday, I earned 275 points plus 14 chances to enter the Quarterly Lucky Draw after completing 6 simple quizes and 8 simple marketing surveys online. With 250 points, I can redeem a $5 Robinsons voucher!

Not bad right? Wanna join in?

MyMailMoment is the brainchild of Singapore Post. You get rewarded for just registering with MyMailMoment – enjoy a cup of soya bean milk from Mr Bean worth $1.30, and Singapore Post will donate $1 to charity!

Visit MyMailMoment to find out more, register and start earning rewards!

FREE The Edge Singapore!

Every year, I get 52 issues of The Edge Singapore free from Phillip Securities! How do I get it free? I simply redeem my rewards points I earned trading with Phillip Securities!

And that's a saving of $98.80 per annum! Not to forget, I can also make some pocket money by selling the old copies to Mr Karung Guni!

My Favourite Analyst Report on STI Outlook

I like the Analyst Report on STI Outlook prepared by AmFraser, which is issued periodically.

Now they have a new website. Read the reports and see it for yourself!

Visit AmFraser

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The 3 Enemies of Stocks!

Who are the 3 Enemies of the Stock Market?

According to Mr Joseph Cycle, the triple enemies of stocks are War, Interest Rates and Shocks. He wrote “So far, we had CDO Shock. There is potential for war against between Iran's Nuclear Ambition though it is now a bit stale news. It is Interest Rates that we worry now.” - date August 8, 2008.

Who is Mr Joseph Cycle? He is the author of the book “The Joseph Cycle”.

Occasionally, he will pen his thoughts at his website. I always check his website everyday to see what this guru is thinking or doing. Why check daily? Aiyah! His email subscription service is not working!

He also wrote “Bearing the JC in mind, we should tread carefully and avoid being over bullish. To survive the Cycle, remember to indulge only in good strong stocks that can last 14 years as was the case in 1994's Cycle Top. “

JC refers to Joseph Cycle.

Why 14 years? JC = 7 years Bear Market + 7 years Bull Market. Bear Market started in October 2007, so need to wait 14 years to see profits, hopefully!

Not for me man, not within my time line and I don't have deep pockets lah!

Can you wait 14 years? Are you holding on to good strong stocks?

Interested to know what Mr Joseph Cycle is thinking or doing, visit JC Website!


(I'm not his student, have no benefit giving Mr JC free advertisement lah! Ha Ha Ha!)

Invest in Health to Get Wealth!

After I started working, my first long term investment was a Life Insurance Policy. My dad (deceased) always said don't buy insurance, don't get cheated of your money for something which is unlikely to happen.

So, I only invest in Insurance Policies that is an Asset and not a Liability or Expense for me. With this Protection Policy with NTUC Income, I'm assured of protection in case of death or disability and can get my money back any time. The protection coverage also increases over the years so I need not buy more insurance. Now, my investment is more than doubled todate.

Of course I did buy more insurance. I invested in Life Insurance Policies covering critical illnesses. My investments are growing, so is the insurance coverage.

When I became a full time investor, I bought into Incomeshield to ensure coverage for hospitalisation expenses. Now no choice lah, this is a liability or expense!

Are you covered or invested? It is better to invest when you are still young to enjoy lower premiums.

Now I can only invest in single premium insurance, no more commitment lah, too expensive, cannot afford lah!

How to Make more Money in Unit Trusts?

Do you know how to increase your rate of return for Unit Trust Investments? Yes, lower your cost of investing in Unit Trusts!

I'm a lazy person and likes to operate everything under one roof. I buy and sell my unit trust investments using POEMS, Phillip Securities online stock trading and other products platform.

Phillip used to be the source offering the lowest cost for unit trusts until a recent new competitor came in – to be best of my knowledge! Sales charge is 1% for >$200k, 1.25% >$100k and 1.5% <$100k. But I can get 1% for >$5k by redeeming my POEMS Rewards Points!

As Phillip is a registered CPFIS investment administrator, I also enjoy lower agent bank transaction charges and CPF service charges when I use CPF to invest in Unit Trusts.

Why I invest in Unit Trusts? To diversify my investment, invest in foreign markets and it's liquidity – ie ease of buying/selling anytime . I buy when the market indices are down and sell when the market indices are up, whenever possible lor!

For now, Cash is King!

Monday, August 11, 2008

B.E.A.T. The Bear Market – 4D for Success!

B.E.A.T. The Bear Market – 4D Guidelines:

Be aware of Bear Market Mechanisms - Don't Buy at Resistance

Nothing goes straight down. Bear market rallies and technical rebounds might occur during bear markets, before the decline continues. Forecast is this bear market might last 4-7 years or more.

Bear market rallies can be fast and furious. Bear market rallies occur after a temporary bottom is found. After the bear market rally is complete, the decline will continue.

Bull Traps or Bear Market Traps – a false signal indicating a reversal of downtrend, ie. that prices might be heading upwards when in fact prices might continue to decline. I call this technical rebound or dead cat bounce. This might happen due to short covering or traders/institutional investors push prices up so they can sell higher

Support can be broken while resistance holds.

So, Don't buy when ceiling/peak/resistance is broken, it is likely I will be in a losing investment!

Ensure Capital Preservation – Don't Average Down!

Prices will continue to decline in bear markets. Buying more to average down my investment will only increase my losses. Unless time is on my side, I have deep pockets, etc. Still I prefer to put my money in money making investments rather than holding on to paper losses hoping it will break-even or make profit in the next 4-7 years or more!

So, Don't average down your trade/investments. Set profit protection and cut loss at 8-10%. Remember this is a long-term bear market!

Avoid Bull Traps or Bear Market Traps – Don't Chase the Stocks!

Prices might gap up at market open or go up intra day. When prices start to rebound, it could be due to short covering or traders pushing prices up so they can sell higher. Do not be tricked into buying the stock thinking a reversal of trend had occurred.

So, Don't Chase the Stocks when prices have run up. It is likely I will be in a losing investment!

Time to Enter/Exit the Bear Market – Don't Buy Weakness/Cheap!

Cheap can be cheaper in a long-term bear market. Timing is crucial to ensure I am buying at extreme bear market weakness which signals the start of the bear market rally and sell into strength before the bear market rally ends. How can I do that? My Crystal Ball guides me!

So, Don't buy on weakness, unless I can confirm we are in a bear market rally!

B.E.A.T. The Bear Market – My 4D for Success!

In a Bear Market, Technical and Fundamental Analysis is not good enough! What do you think?

August 11 Wkly Update

Fengshui: market unlikely to do well this week. (Point to note: my past experience showed Fengshui is very accurate in monthly forecast, quite ok in weekly forecast but no so chun for daily forecast. Anyway, I still share with you).

Astrology: volatile week ahead.

Technical Analysis*: Possible short-term rebound in US indices before decline unfolds. Note: Tuesday, ban on naked shorts will be lifted. Friday is options expiry.
I will still focus on the BIG-PICTURE, see August 2008 Forecast
* US Market - since STI usually tracks Lau Ta (big brother Dow)

Is GOLD a Safe Haven? - Part 2

Is Gold a Safe Haven? What is the outlook for Gold?

August 2008 Forecast

Technical Analysis: Gold is in a bull market, currently under correction. Might drop further, support 800, 750, 680. Buy weakness for continued uptrend, target USD1300 end 2008.

Fengshui : Likely to gain strength since August is the Yang Metal Monkey month, metal element is strong.

Disclaimer



Sunday, August 10, 2008

Fengshui Forecast for 2008?

Even among Fengshui Masters, their Stock Market Forecasts for 2008 can also differ somewhat. Differences are also noted in their classification of businesses under each of the 5 elements.

2008 is the Yang Earth Rat year, earth over water year. In general, the forecast for 2008 is as follows:
  • First half would be better than second half of the year
  • Sectors/Industries likely to do well: earth, wood and metal
  • Sectors/Industries unlikely to do well: fire, water

Earth eg. Mining, banking, health care, property, etc
Wood eg. agriculture, education, paper, fashion, timber, etc
Metal eg. gold, technology, automobile, etc
Water eg. shipping, water treatment, logistics, transportation/communication, etc
Fire, eg. equity, hospitality, entertainment, etc

Me use my own judgement to identify which business in each sector/industry is likely to do well, eg. under Earth element, I know property is unlikely to do well so is out of my stock picks under Earth element.

In addition, I also need to check in which months the sector/industry can perform and in which months the sector/industry will be weak.

So, what is the outlook for Gold going forward?

Saturday, August 9, 2008

B.E.A.T. the Bear Market

B.E.A.T. the Bear Market - Guidelines

Be aware of Bear Market Mechanisms!

Ensure Capital Preservation!

Avoid Bull Traps!

Time to enter/exit the Bear Market!


Some Food for Thought, to be continued next Monday...

Which Sectors Likely to Perform in this Bear Market?

Fengshui forecast of sectors which are likely to do well in a particular month or next few months is pretty accurate. Sectors or industries are assigned one of the 5 elements, ie wood, water, fire, metal and earth. When there is strength of the element in the particular month, that industry or sector is likely to perform well. Some basic understanding of this is good to help identify stocks to buy when the bear market rally starts.

Alternatively, one can use technical analysis to identify the stocks to buy. Still, it is useful to know which sectors are unlikely to perform, so to avoid .

Can Fengshui forecast when the next bear market rally will come?

Friday, August 8, 2008

4-Year US Presidential Cycle

I found this US newspaper article talking about the 4-Year US Presidential Cycle which includes a forecast for the next 4 years. Interesting read, see below (click to zoom out):



Who Say's There Is No Free Lunch!

Tomorrow is National Day, 9 August 2008. Every year, the community club will organise National Day Celebration Observance Day for residents in my area. I already collected 4 free tickets for my family. We can go there to relax, wave the Singapore mini flag, chang kuo ke (sing national songs), play games and win titbits/gifts, mingle with fellow neighbours and get free lunch!

Many retirees and non-retirees know where they can get free meals/lunches. As shareholders, they attend the company's AGM and get free meals. Attend seminars and get free meals and free gifts. Especially lately, many fund houses organise talks and give free meals – maybe business not so good due to market volatility!

Where else can you get free lunch?

Good Returns From Capital Plus Policy!

Yesterday I was $20 richer! Two of my Capital Plus Policies with NTUC Income matured in 2006 after 7 years. Returns about 3.5% per annum. And I got my capital plus interest back then. On top of that, NTUC Income gave me a $10 voucher for each policy (in the form of a letter) which I can use to buy products in I-shop. I forgot to claim until yesterday, after almost 2 years! And so nice, NTUC I-shop allowed me to redeem $20 Robinsons vouchers! Not bad right!

Capital Plus is a single premium insurance policy. I get insurance protection as well as earn interest, like FD but higher returns. Too bad, NTUC Income no longer offer such policies. I still have such policies maturing a few years later (7 and 10 years term), earning about 3.5% per annum. Good long term investments in view of the low bank interest rates and I get protection also!

I think some bank insurance do offer similar policies.

Rewarded For Using Protrader?

Yesterday I was $100 richer! I collected my $100 Robinsons vouchers from Phillip Securities. Periodically, Phillip Securities will have promotions for using their products. They want to encourage their clients to switch/use Protrader for trading the stock market. This is a more user friendly and faster trading tool, with better features. You can place stop loss orders.

This is the second time I received the reward!

Thursday, August 7, 2008

S.M.A.R.T. List - My Crystal Ball!

More Secrets Revealed!

Who are in my Stock Market Astrology Resources Tips List? - My Crystal Ball?
The advisors, consultants or shifu who have been providing me with reliable and accurate forecasts so far:
  1. Fengshui Masters – 2 with expertise in stock market forecasting.
  2. Stock Market Astrologers - 4 global experts
  3. Technical Analysis – 3 US experts using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Techniques
  4. Expert Trader Analysis – 2 US expert traders
  5. Expert Market Information – 2 websites

I make sure I have at least 2 experts in each category to confirm/counter check and act as fallback in case I lose one resource. All based on my own research, fished out from the internet! (except item 1)

So that gives me 80% accuracy!

If you have busy schedules, consider Get Email Updates to have postings delivered to your email address.


Using Fengshui to Forecast Stock Market

In my previous post, I mentioned Energy. Energy refers to the 5 elements in the universe, ie metal, water, wood, fire and earth. Everything in the universe can be associated with these 5 elements. Elements are assigned to the Year, month, day and time, etc.

Let's just focus on the stock market. Stock market is assigned the fire element. For the stock market to have strength (meaning go up), we need to have at least fire and/or wood elements in the Year, month and day. Water can extinguish fire, so can metal as metal holds water. Basically, that's how stock market forecast is done, ie based on the elements existing in the Year, month and day. Of course there is more to this, me no fengshui master hor. So I rely on the fengshui master's forecast.

Some basic understanding is good. Fengshui is not a religion or superstition, ok. With the basic understanding, I can search the internet to find out the elements for future Years, so can roughly estimate whether will be good or bad for those Years.

Fengshui = Chinese Astrology.

Financial Astrology or Stock Market Astrology

Refers to use of astrological bodies or principles to forecast stock market. Basically, the movements of the various planets in the solar system can impact what's happening on Earth, including the stock market and people. Financial astrologers use historical information and their own system/software to forecast, studying the current movement and location of the various planets.

Me no study astrology, just try my best to explain. Important thing is some of these financial astrologers can forecast quite reliably.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

It's All About Timing!

Understanding or knowing business and market cycles helps me manage my money, manage the risk and manage my life. I might not be able to participate or see the next bull run to make money more easily! Why, cos Singapore Market has a 14-year cycle according to the book “The Joseph Cycle”. And the Bear Market which already started might last for the next 7 years or more – according to a US expert (if STI continues to track DOW). Maybe you can if you are still young!

I can still make money in a Bear Market. Still good timing is important - when a bear market rally will occur, when the downtrend will continue.

There are other known market cycles, such as the 4-year US Presidential cycle, 56-year financial crisis cycle, 60-year chinese zodiac cycle, etc. Search the internet, you might be able to find more information.
One of the Fengshui Master I follow closely uses the 60-year cycle to do their forecast for the year.

A Gift for Account Opening!

Yesterday I went down to NTUC Fairprice Tanjong Pagar with my mum to buy necessities. I passed by Singapore Pools and they were having a roadshow. Open a Gold Poolzconnect account and I get $5 NTUC voucher on the spot. Why not? That makes it easier for me to buy toto for this Friday's $8million draw!

Ha ha, just nice, I spent the $5 NTUC voucher on necessities at NTUC Fairprice. I usually buy necessities on special offer, usually housebrand on offer. So I get double discounts. With my mum, I get another 2% off, that's triple discounts. Not to forget I also earn rebates and linkpoints with my Max card (NTUC Fairprice membership). And with the free $5 NTUC voucher, ho ho ho Santa Claus came early to town!

What a way to make my money grow!

(Singapore Pools roadshow ends this Friday to tie in with the $8 million draw. I also got a toto key chain free – I can use it for toto quick pick.)

Earn Rewards with Surveys!

Yesterday I received an email from NTUC Income to participate in an online survey. Earlier this year, they invited me to join the survey group to qualify to receive online surveys. I completed the survey immediately cos the first 150 to complete will receive 150 linkpoints and get to participate in a lucky draw. 150 linkpoints is equivalent to $1 which I can redeem for purchases at NTUC Fairprice or other goodies. Sometimes, I can earn 500 linkpoints per survey.

Talking about lucky draws, I think my luck this year is quite good, never before had I been so lucky lor.

I attended a seminar and won first prize in the lucky draw - $300 shopping voucher! I participated in an online quiz organised by one investment company and was picked to win second prize – a canon photo printer!

SIAS vs SIAS ?

I enjoyed 2 years of free membership with SIAS (Securities Investors Association Singapore) sponsored by Keppel Corp and Phillips Capital. I also enjoyed 1 year of free membership sponsored by NTUC Income. All memberships had expired.

I remembered the President of SIAS mentioned this a few times at seminars I attended, ie organise more education programmes so SIAS means Smart Investors Always Succeed, no longer Silly Investors Always Suffer.

Do you know of other ways to get free memberships? I want to attend their education programmes free lor!

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Singapore Stock Market has 14-Year Cycle?

I read the book titled "The Joseph Cycle" by Simon Sim only in 2007. It said that Singapore stock market has a 14-year cycle, ie. 7 bull years and 7 bear years. It said the last bull run started from 2002 and expected to end in 2008, then next 7 bear years will come.

If I understand the market cycle, I can ride the trend and make huge profits. Eg. buy at start of bull run and hold/sell near the end of bull run. Focus on the BIG-PICTURE, get it right and the BIG PROFITS will follow. I can be a long term investor in such a situation.

If the market had turned bearish long term, ie if the next 7 years are going to be a bear market, then it doesn't make sense for me to be a long term investor. I would prefer to wait and buy cheap at the end of the bear market or when the next bull run is confirmed, then become a long term investor. In the meantime, I would prefer to park my funds in other money making investments.

There are also many other cycle theories, such as 60-years, etc. Lookout for my future postings, I'll share more.

(This bull run might have ended earlier than expected. 2008 is not over, so it is too early or not fair to conclude on the book's forecast. Anyway, my opinion is the bear market had started.)

S.A.Y.E. is Back!

When I just started working, POSB offered a savings account facility where I can save a fixed amount of my salary per month over 24 months. Upon maturity on the 24th month, POSB will pay me additional interest on interest. Every year after, I still continue to earn interest on interest. This is the Save As You Earn savings account.

Now S.A.Y.E. is back but with a difference! There is no fixed maturity term, meaning I can withdraw my money anytime I like. For a maximum monthly deposit of $1,500 per month, I can earn 1.5% interest per annum, calculated daily but credited monthly. I can also deposit a lump sum into the account anytime to take advantage of the higher interest rate. Wow! That's better than a normal savings account and a fixed deposit account! It's MySavings Account!

So much flexibility that I can temporary park my funds there and wait for opportunity to get back into the market any time!

There are other terms attached, but no big deal, I still stand to benefit from the package! 3 Cheers to POSB, forever my banker and National Banker, since childhood.

The Frog In the Pot?

Have you heard of the story about The Frog in the Pot?

If I put the frog into a pot of hot water, it will react and jump out immediately. If I put it into a pot of cold water, it will swim happily. Then I start to boil the pot of water. It will still continue to swim happily. But when the water is boiled, guess what will happen to the frog? Yes, it is dead cos it is so used to the temperature that it has no time to react!

Is the current stock market and investor climate in this similar situation now?

Some Food for Thought.

Monday, August 4, 2008

August 4 - Wkly Update

Now, more Global technical experts (from my resources tips) are forecasting a possible dramatic drop in the US indices, possibly later this week. Be careful!

Forecasting using technical analysis changes more frequently due to market volatility. Cos the technical indicators changes day by day following the market volatility.

Why react to the market? Beat the market!

Can Technical analysis forecast market direction which might be impacted by natural or man-made disasters, eg. earthquakes, tsunami, flu epidemic, terrorist attacks, wars, etc.?

I use technical analysis to confirm the BIG-PICTURE is still correct, the fengshui forecast is still accurate.

"Don't be Brave, Run Away. Live to Fight another Day!"

Profit from Unit Trusts!

With the forecast of potential bear market rally from Mar to May 2008, I also invested in Unit Trusts to ride the trend in overseas markets such as US, Brazil, Russia, China, India, and exposure in resources/gold.
I bought into the Unit Trusts online and sold it in mid-May 2008.

I do not trade or buy overseas stocks. Still can Beat the Market!

My Favourite Market News

I listen to radio 95.8FM every weekday, at 8.50am, 1.20pm and 5.50pm, for updates by local analyst. Listen to the program during lunchtime, its good! I also listen to 938Live. Watch TV8 every Monday morning at 7.10am.

I monitor the news on CNBC, Bloomberg and Marketwatch for breaking news.

Shares Investment Guide recently had its own website, so can read some articles free. I like to read articles by Prof Chan and Gabriel Gan.

I read analysts' writeup on STI outlook published in Society of Remisiers. I also read weekly reports issued by Phillip Securities Research published every Monday – available on POEMS.

All these resources are listed on the right hand side of my Blog.

Mypaper, Today, Annual Reports Got Value?

What do you do with your old Mypaper, Today, Annual Reports and Shareholder circulars, etc? Do you know you can find money in it?

The value of such old waste papers has been increasing in the past months. About 15cents for old newspapers/magazines, etc and 20cents for black and white waste papers.

So next time you see junk mails in your letter box, don't throw it into the dustbin. Recycle them together with your old newspapers etc. when you hear “Ba Pu Ba, Karung guni!” Or donate to charity! Remember you can find money in it!

Think Green, Save the Trees!

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Effects of Solar Eclipse on Aug 1 2008

I received an email late last night from an Astro site I subscribed. It suggest to quickly write down 10 wishes on this day, as it will highly come true, depending -- dun understand, too chim. So, I quickly write down 10 wishes. You guess what I wrote? One is I wish I strike toto $8 million dollars next Friday, LOL.

Ok, jokes aside, there appears to be some problem with Google Blog system. Cannot access using IE but can access using Firefox. I thought there were some problems with the changes I made last night, so I deleted all of them. You will not be able to find the GET EMAIL UPDATES box. I apologise for any inconvenience caused.

I'll have a very busy schedule tonight and tomorrow, no time to sleep - 1am to 6am got US webinar, 7am need to go for my healthy lifestyle brisk walking - this one is National Day walk-a-jog, then need to catchup on sleep lor, then need to do research liao cos all my resources tips would have come in, except one/two will come in Monday morning. So, I can only post on Monday lor. So, that's all for now, see you Monday morning!

Fengshui Forecast was Spot On!

This is not my success story cos I only got to know this Fengshui Master (FSM) in late 2007.

I search the internet for the FSM and found this – published in June 2007. A possible Bubble Burst! Advises to consider getting out of the market by early July 2007.

That was spot on! I wish I knew this FSM then and had done more research !

So, I decided to lookout for this FSM's forecast for 2008 and do more research on the internet for future forecasts by Global Experts in Fengshui, Astrology and Technical Analysis.

Beat the Market!

Is GOLD a Safe Haven?

When I first started my working career, my mum always tell me to buy gold jewellery, wear gold jewellery. “Its an investment, it has value”. So, whenever chinese new year is coming, we'll go to Poh Heng Jewellery to buy gold bracelets, necklaces, earrings, etc. Why Poh Heng? cos my sister has a friend there, we can get discount for workmanship, so our gold will be worth more in future!

Gold jewellery was in fashion then, so I dun mind buying and wearing them. But ever since it went out of fashion, I stopped wearing and buying them. What a waste! Now Gold price had gone up so much, its not worth buying now already. “Pu ting lao ren yuan, chi quay zhai yen chien” - can you read this in chinese? meaning “If you dun listen to old folks, you will likely lose in future”

My parents migrated from China to Singapore during their teens and had experienced World War II. They knew the value of Gold!

Now I can only hope Gold price will continue to shoot up, then I sell my Gold Jewellery!

Is it time to buy GOLD ETF? Is GOLD still a Safe Haven? Lookout for my future postings after I complete my research cos it is now at a critical turning point!

Fengshui Gave Me Luck! - Part 2

I only found this out last month. Another reason why I suddenly got so lucky, strike 4D and made money from the stock market.

If my bazi has 2 money elements, the money element also found in the Year 2007, and 2007 also happened to fall into my 10-year lucky cycle, I might “Huat”. Complicated and confused?

I never visited any Fengshui Master for bazi reading nor fortune telling. I search the internet for bazi and other information.

Another reason why – it happened to be in Bull Run lah! Buy anything also make money lah!

Friday, August 1, 2008

Fengshui Helped Me Beat the Market

I received the fengshui forecast on the stock market in Feb 08.

It indicated the market will have strength from Mar 08 to May 08 and will likely top out in May. It will be volatile in the second half of May 08 and weaken in June 08.

So I bought into a few STI component stocks (eg. Noble and Olam) in Mar 08 and sold all off in mid-May. Luckily, major correction occurred in June.

I shared the forecast with a few friends who approached me for market forecast in Mar 08. I also shared with a few people I met at a seminar where we were then discussing can the market drop futher, to cut loss or not – I told them market will rebound, wait till mid-May then get out of the market. In June 08, they all sent me emails to say “you are so accurate, so what is next?”

I believed the fengshui forecast cos it makes sense. How well the stock market can perform is very much dependent on the mood of the people involved and people who can affect the market. The Fengshui energy of the year, month and day can influence the mood of these people, thus affecting the performance of the market. What do I mean by Fengshui energy, I'll share with you in future postings.

Remember, I'm no Fengshui Master hor. I'm just sharing with you what I hear from the Fengshui Master.

Can Technical Analysis tell in advance when the bear rally will start and end?

Lookout for more Beat the Market - Success Stories!

Fengshui Gave Me Luck!

In March 2007, my friend shared with me how she strike 4D (1st Prize) after she followed some fengshui tips. So, I also tried it out.
I pasted 6 $1 coins on the wall above the main door of my house (must be inside the house). Why $1 coin – it has bagua shape on it! Better to get new ones, issued in 2006. Paste with Singapore 'flag' side facing up/out.
After more than a month later, guess what happened? Ya! I strike 4D(1st Prize)! And more, I made BIG PROFITS from the market! Thank you my friend, I know you are reading!

So, go try it, no harm lah! Choose an auspicious day to paste it, eg. on the 15th day of the lunar month. Skip this month ok, you know why lah!

Good Luck!

DJIA 7thYear Itch -Will 2017 be Itchy?

Take a look at DJIA history for the past 130 years, for years ending with 7, see the following past 13 times (source: Leuthold Group) ...