Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Be a Chameleon to Beat the Market!

I like these comic cartoon illustrations about the stock market.

1. To beat the market or survive, we must make the Trend our friend. Be a Bull when the trend is up. Be a Bear when the trend is down. Be a Chameleon!

2. Let the Big Bulls and Big Bears fight it out!

3. Have good foresight, tighten our seat belts and take the big roller coaster rides to beat the market! But remember when one should alight!

4. Don't fall into the Bull Traps or Bear Traps (depends how you view it)!

5. Don't buy on breakout

6. Don't try to catch the bottom!

7. Will there be a Second Great Depression?

8. Be a short term investor for now!

Happy New Year!

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Watch the Skies for Trends!

A Financial Astrology market timing expert was interviewed recently.

Yes, FA experts watch the skies for trends!
  1. Sees economy teetering between Camelot and Armageddon in 2009.
  2. Stars warned of economic meltdown as early as 1994 because Saturn, Uranus and Plato were aligned in the same pattern as the Great Depression from now until 2012.
  3. Planetary arrangements similar to that in 1929 to 1934.
  4. Just completed first leg down in a new bear market.
  5. We will now recover.
  6. Then we will have another powerful leg down following that.

Wow, very similar to my Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox!

Monday, December 29, 2008

S&P 500 / DOW / STI Charts for 1Q2009?

My Stock Market Masters are on holiday, so Stock Market Forecast - December 29 Weekly Update will be delayed.

How will the S&P500, DOW and STI Charts for 1Q2009 look like?

There are many research comparing 2008 to 1929. My Fengshui Master said the 5 elements of 2009 are very similar to 1929.

So, we shall take a look at the following graphical comparison of the stock market crash of 2000 - 2008 to crashes in 1990 and 1929. Hmm... very eerie right?

The chart shows the 1929 (Dow Jones index / US), 1990 (Nikkei index / Japan) and 2000 - 2008 (AEX index / Europe) stock market crashes, and the pattern is always the same:

  1. Bubble / Boom: stocks rise more than 350% in 6 years.

  2. Crash / Bust: market falls more than 50% in 3 years.

  3. Aftermath: markets are volatile for at least 10 years, and they end where they began.

Human nature does not change overtime. Greed and fear drives the market. Investors behave the same in the US, Japan and Europe. And there is no "this time it's different", not in 1929, 1990 and 2000.

(Comments in blue extracted from source which provided the graph)

Here is another graphical comparison of the charts for 2002 to 2008 vs 1932 to 1937. So eerie!!

So, how will the S&P500, DOW and STI Charts for 1Q2009 look like?

Lookout for Part 2 to this article!

Saturday, December 27, 2008

S&P 500 / STI Charts for 2009?

How will the S&P 500 and STI Charts for 2009 look like?

S&P 500 Chart 2009:

1. From Jan 1989 to Oct 2007 (275 to 1576), the 50% Fibonacci support at 910 had been broken and now become resistance.
2. S&P 500 likely to rebound in next 2 months. If break above 910, then likely to test the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 1058.
3. After which, the market is likely to form a small knoll and continue its fall.

STI Chart 2009:

1. STI will most likely follow suite, form a knoll before continuing its free-fall again.
2. If break above 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 1970, then likely to test 50% Fibonacci resistance level (2350).
3. A head-and-shoulder pattern could be on the cards.

(Above are key points from article written by Xavier Lim in Share Investments Guide, December 19, 2008)

I agree with this Big Picture Chart since it is in sync with my Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox!

How would the Charts look like from now to First Quarter 2009? Lookout for my future articles!

Friday, December 26, 2008

Dow Performance on December 26

Historically, the market has done much better the day after Christmas than the day before.

Since 1980, the Dow has averaged a gain of 0.16% on Christmas Eve, with gains 56% of the time. On December 26, the index has averaged a gain of 0.31%, with gains 81% of the time.

In the 2000s, December 26 has been very strong, with gains 83% of the time.

(Source: B.I.G.)

So, will Dow be very strong tonight?

Tomorrow is new moon. Will US indices rally into the moon?

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Presents For Christmas!

Santa Claus called me on Monday morning inviting me to attend a 90 minutes presentation. I'll be rewarded for spending the time with them. The rewards sounded too good to be true. I remembered a similar call I received last year which I turned down. Then I thought why not give them a chance, I only have to sacrifice 90 minutes of my time, without obligations.

So, yesterday afternoon I went to meet them. After 120 minutes, I said NO to the offer of the membership package. It's like a holiday package type of membership club. Ha ha, guess you know me by now. I'm only interested in investing on assets, not acquiring liabilities!

Ho ho ho! Guess what Santa Claus gave to me for Christmas?

  1. 1. 4 days 3 nights holiday in Bangkok, Pattaya or Phuket Voucher – airtickets & accommodation for two persons. Wow! Too good to believe?

  2. 2. Set Dinner for Two at Thai Restaurant.
  3. 3. Voucher for Free Water Dispenser worth $1800 – hmm... there's a hidden cost!

  4. 4. Spa Voucher worth $180 – I'm giving it away!

Thank you Santa Claus!

If you are interested in receiving these presents from Santa Claus, email me your name and mobile number, then I get the marketing guy to contact you.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

A January 2009 Test of Lows?

Three Astro Market Timing Experts predict a possible test of the lows before January 20, 2009:

1. Something might happen and might send US Markets below 2008 lows before January 20, 2009.

2. Multi-months low might come between January 8 and January 14, 2009.

3. Possible test of the lows or worst in December 2008 or January 2009.

So, be careful.

Hmm.... if it happens, that would be the best buying opportunity to ride this Multi-Month Bear Market Rally!

Monday, December 22, 2008

December 22 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

December 22 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market likely to have strength except for Friday.

Astrology: A positive week.

Technical Analysis: US indices – indecision Monday, sign of topping out.

US – potential market-moving reports on Monday and Tuesday.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

S&P 500 Performance – Options Expiration Weeks

The table below shows S&P 500's performance during option expiration weeks since 2006 (Source B.I.G.).

Note the following:

1. Wednesdays - the only day with averaged negative returns, most volatile with an average change of +/- 1.25%.

2. Fridays - recently with averaged move of less than 1% up or down (0.95%), with highest average gain of 0.34%.

3. For 2008 – 7 of 11 Wednesdays were negative, 8 of 11 Thursdays were positive and 7 of 10 Fridays were positive.

If Wednesday is going to be negative (now at 9pm Wednesday night my time, Dow futures is negative), will Thursday and Friday be positive?

Hmm... guess what I'm thinking?

A Christmas Card from Mr Market

Hopefully, Mr Market doesn't send us this Holiday Card again in 2009! (Source: B.I.G.)

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

STI in Consolidation – Breaking Up?

Daryl Guppy wrote about consolidation patterns on CNBC website yesterday, using Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) as example to explain. A summary of key points below:

Many of the major Asian Regional Indices are in consolidation as reflected in the developing chart patterns.

STI is also in consolidation mode. STI Chart Pattern shows a symmetrical triangle which indicates market indecision (see diagram).

1. The rising trendline, from near 1,450 with a series of rising lows, shows that buyers are more aggressively moving into the market. Buyers wait for falling prices and when the bargain price is irresistible, they re-enter the market. Buyers are becoming more optimistic.

2. The downtrend line shows stockholders who have a different opinion. As prices rise, stockholders sell into the market, worried that prices might continue to weaken.

3. The market can develop an explosive breakout in either direction. This breakout is usually in response to a significant news event. Its a 50% chance of breaking upwards or downwards.

4. Upside target is near 2,300.

5. Downside target is near 1,250.

6. The GMMA display shows downtrend pressure is very strong. It's going to take more than a short term boost of Christmas cheer to sustain an uptrend.

7. Breakout likely to occur just after December 25.

What present will Santa Claus deliver for Christmas?

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Free Movies & Dramas

My nephew found another website offering free movies and dramas.

Wow! There are latest Hong Kong, Taiwanese, Japanese and Korean Movies and Dramas!

I like to watch the Hong Kong Dramas. Wow! Can go on marathon watch!


It's MySoju.Com

Earn Rewards with Surveys

I received an invitation to join Valued Opinions.

Upon signing up, I get a chance to win an iPod nano.

Periodically, I will receive email invitations to participate in online surveys which I will earn rewards. Rewards can be redeemed for vouchers from Giant, Cold Storage, 7-eleven, Guardian or Starbucks.

It's free, why not?

Monday, December 15, 2008

December 15 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

December 15 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Markets unlikely to see strength except for Friday.

Astrology: Week might end positive.

Technical Analysis: US indices – might decline Monday. Expect Dow to drop towards 8200+/-, followed by rally till near calendar month end.

US - Another week of quite heavy schedule of market moving economic reports. Expect volatility during week, Friday being quadruple-witching options expiration day.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Mr Market Always Look Forward

The Bad News:

World Bank said Singapore's economic growth will be weak going into 2009.

The economy could bottom out in the third quarter.

It expects Singapore to be one of the worst hit in the region given the small and open economy.

The Good News:

Mr Market always look forward, 6-9 months ahead of the economy.

So expect Mr Market to rally from now?

Expect a multi-month rally as forecasted in my December 2008 Stock Market Forecast and Stock Market Forecast 2009?

Ho ho ho, Santa Claus is coming early to town!

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Mr Bear Gone Multi-Month Hibernation!

“The S&P 500 finally had its first 20% + rally in 408 days. Which means we're currently in a bull market by standard definition (20% rally preceded by a 20% decline).

The bear market from 10/9/07 to 11/20/08 is the third worst ever with a decline of 51.93%. The bears that ended in June 1932 (-61.81%) and March 1938 (-54.47%) are the only two that had bigger declines without a rally of 20%.”

Source: B.I.G.

Remember what I wrote in the December 2008 Stock Market Forecast?

Hurray! It is confirmed with DOW and S&P 500 breaking out of 8900 and 890. The multi-month bear market rally started on November 21, 2008! But volatility is here to stay. Remember the Buy/Sell rules?

Let's make money. Mr Bull came early! I mean Year of the OX. But remember, it is only a bear market rally, not a new bull market hor. Remember hor.

Read Stock Picks 1, Stock Picks 2, Stock Picks 3, Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

A January 2009 test of lows ?

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Gold Outlook 2009

What is the Forecast for Gold by my FA and TA Masters?

Gold might drop to 600-650 range.

If this level holds, then can expect a Gold rally.

I'm waiting to buy Gold.

Some experts recommend it is good to hold some gold in view of the economic downturn, although there is no place to hide.

Cash is still King with best returns over the long term.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Trading with Moons – December 2008

Will we test the lows in December 2008?

According to one FA (Financial Astrology) Master:

1. Moons are very good at marking turns within a few days when the markets get very emotional and volatile like now.

2. Full Moons are statistically lows but this one is a special case which only occur every 40 years or so. This one is the most powerful in over a hundred years.

3. Possible weakness early this week that rebounds into the December 15th Full Moon.

4. New Moons are normally highs, so expect December 27th New Moon to be a high.

Let's watch the Moons for possible guidance!

Monday, December 8, 2008

December 2008 Stock Market Forecast

December 7 2008 to January 4 2009

: Yang Wood Rat. Equity Markets should see strength in first half. Favourable industries/sectors : Fire, Wood, Earth.

Financial Astrology: Middle of month near December 12 a little negative, last week of calendar month is positive. Be cautious in long term bearish market.

Technical Analysis: US Indices – If Dow can break 8900 and S&P 500 can break 890, likely to see a multi-month bear market rally ahead. Pattern or extent of rally yet to be confirmed.

Be careful in view of differing views from the 3 Masters (Fengshui, FA and TA).

Maybe markets likely to test last low before staging a rally. Think capital preservation. Protect against downside risk.

Will we get a Santa Claus Rally?

Lookout for Weekly Updates!

December 8 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

December 8 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Markets unlikely to see strength except for December 8 and 12.

Astrology: A sudden and shocking event might cause equity markets plunging around December 10 to 15.

Technical Analysis: US indices – might decline Monday, rest of week depends on whether the indices can breakout of trading channel.

Friday, December 5, 2008

How Low/High can STI/Dow Go?

How high can STI go in the Bear Market Rally ahead?

That depends on how low STI can go now. So how low can STI go?

Have you read Daryl Guppy's article dated December 3, 2008?

Key points are:

  1. Current consolidation attempt with rebound from near 1500 has no historical foundation

  2. High probability STI will test support at 1300

  3. Traders wait for test of support between 1250 and 1300

  4. Then rebound rally with upside target near 1800

  5. Rise above 1800, expect rise towards 2220. Low probability outcome

Wow! That's the bad news and good news! How accurate is he?

Me, no idea! But my BMI shows a possible low of 1430 and high of 2050. These are dynamic indicators hor. Also depends on Lao Ta = Mr Dow!

So, what about Dow?

Daryl said recession support is 7500 while depression support is 5300.

So, be patient. Think Capital Preservation! Wait for Mr Market to call the bottom!

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Bear Market Rally Buy/Sell Rules

Possible Bear Market Rally Ahead will likely be very volatile. Barring unforeseen circumstances, stocks should rally over a longer time period. How long? Let you know later.

What unforeseen circumstances might occur during this Bear Market Rally? Never know man. War, terrorist attack, another Bear Stearns or Lehman case, epidemic or ???

So we need to protect against downside risk while riding the rally before Mr Market decides to make a u-turn - down again.

  1. Pyramid Buying
  2. Inverted Pyramid Selling
  3. Buy on dips
  4. Sell before rally ends

So how long will this Bear Market Rally Ahead likely to last?

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead – Stock Picks 5

Will I invest in Unit Trust in this Bear Market Rally Ahead?

Hmm... I shall not take too much risk:

  1. Higher cost of investing in Unit Trust – outfront fees

  2. Difficult to time entry – price disadvantage

  3. Difficult to exit on time – price disadvantage

As it is difficult to control, I cannot manage my risk effectively since this market still has so much uncertainty and volatility. Volatility is expected even in the Bear Market Rally Ahead.

I plan to invest my CPF and SRS funds = my retirement funds. So it must be in safe investments which I can control and manage.

I intend to invest in STI ETF funds = capital appreciation and dividend income, in the Bear Market Rally Ahead.

With appropriate investing/trading rules, it should be a wise investment to me.

What investing/trading rules should I adopt in this Bear Market Rally Ahead?

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Think Capital Preservation – Patience is Key!

Think Capital Preservation. Focus on protecting against downside risk.

That's the focus of my Big Picture Approach!

2 weeks ago, I warned my blog email subscribers not to buy too early in case the stock market crash will be bad over the next 3 weeks.

This week is the final week of the Yin Water Pig Month, November 2008. Looks like the water energy is still strong and back to kill the fire in the stock market.

When will the Bear Market Rally Ahead be?

Patience is key when markets are moving down.

Still some confirmation needed. Maybe after the next test of last "bottom" or low? If it holds, then ...

I'm hoping markets will drop to test last "bottom" or low, then maybe time to enter if it holds. Be patient.

Stock Market Forecast 2009 - TA

Todate, my blog has 56% Global Visitors (28% US) and 44% Singapore.

Hmm.. I shall share one important tip which should be of interest to my Global Visitors.

I have 3 categories of experts in my S.M.A.R.T. List, which I will now call them Fengshui Masters, TA Masters (Technical Analysis), and FA Masters (Financial Astrology).

One of my TA Masters had been providing very accurate US stock market forecasts for the past 4 months. And his Forecast for 2009 for S&P500 and DOW is in sync with my Fengshui Masters' forecast. He uses Elliott Wave, Fibonacci Ratios and many other indicators.

Interested to learn more about Elliott Wave?

There are 2 free online courses – crash course and 10 lessons from EWI.

Me? My "CPU" has limited capacity. I prefer to tap on the work of my S.M.A.R.T. List and continue my search for more and better Global Masters.

But I'll share with you about my views on Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Ratios in future.

Monday, December 1, 2008

December 01 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

December 01 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Uncertain and volatile

Astrology: Volatile and average week

Technical Analysis: US indices – might decline Monday, some possible upside

This week, US has a heavy schedule of potential market moving economic reports. Be careful.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead – Stock Picks 4

Did you read 2 very interesting articles which appeared in yesterday's Business Times? Read my comments in blue.

First Article - Asian markets to see 2009 rebound: S&P

"We suspect that first-quarter 2009 is likely to reveal ugly corporate performances and this may dampen sentiment in first-half 2009. With economic growth anticipated to rebound in second-half 2009, we believe that equities are likely to have a strong fourth-quarter 2009 as the recovery becomes apparent and investors begin to re-rate stocks upward.”

Hey, Mr Market always look ahead about 6-9 months, so how would the stock market perform in the first half of 2009? And if later the economy is not expected to recover so soon, what would happen to the stock market in the second half? Read my Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox!

Second Article: What might 2009 hold for Stocks?

Summary of key points and my comments:
  1. If most experts agree that a recovery will occur in second half of 2009, the writer say buy stocks before end of first half. Hmm... if you believe him, then you might be catching the falling knives! Read my Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox. Never believe these experts or analysts after what happened to 2008.
  2. "China stocks are high on the list of what to avoid. There's good reason why these counters have lost 70-80 per cent in 2008 and it isn't just earnings worries that will continue to plague the sector, but also credibility, governance and survival issues.” Hmm.. I agree.
  3. "Avoiding property stocks for the first six months at least. Like China, the sector benefited from overblown expectations, lax analyst recommendations, easy credit and insufficient consideration of risk. Moreover, the physical market has not even begun to correct meaningfully yet and it could be years before prices find a bottom.” Hmm.. I suggest to put it high on avoid list.
  4. "Between banks and conglomerates, the latter are probably better positioned to ride out the global downturn. Local banks have been too reliant on the domestic property market for their loans and lack a diversified revenue base within the region, let alone further afield. Their numbers can only worsen with time and so it would be best to avoid the sector for now. Government-linked conglomerates offer much better exposure to an overseas upturn, so these stocks would be worth keeping an eye on.” Hmm.. I agree
  5. "For now, though, it would be wise to keep in mind that cash is king and patience is a virtue - at least for the next 5-6 months.” Hmm.. I agree but after possible Bear Market Rally Ahead is over!

Some more tips and considerations?

Read Stock Picks 1, Stock Picks 2, Stock Picks 3, Stock Picks 5

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead – Stock Picks 3

If you have been following my blog since I started end July 2008 or have read all my blog articles, I guess you already know my Approach to Beat the Market.

My objective is to make money by focusing on the Big Picture. Me no value investor or long term investor if the Big Picture is no good.

How do I know what's the Big Picture?

I got my Crystal Ball to look into the future. Read:

1. Stock Market Forecast for Next 8 Years
2. Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox

I use Fengshui for Risk Management and Market Timing.

I'll only enter/exit based on Fengshui Forecast. So my Stock Pick Tips are only good for the Possible Bear Market Rally Ahead. When the Rally is over, we must exit all stocks, before the Big Bear Comes Back from Hibernation!

More tips & considerations?

Read Stock Picks 1, Stock Picks 2, Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead – Stock Picks 2

So what are my criteria for stock picks to ride the Possible Bear Market Rally Ahead?

1. Fengshui Forecast - the best sector/industry which is likely to perform well in the next few months is Wood Industries – See Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox. The best category is Agriculture. I'm going for it.

2. Technical Analysis – some of my expert in S.M.A.R.T. List forecast that Oil is likely to rebound in the next few months. So, I'm might be looking at oil-related counters such as oil-rig business.

3. Only a Bear Market Rally – focus on STI component stocks, ie the blue chips for item 1 & 2.

Any other tips and considerations?

Hmm... Lookout for Part 3 lor!

Read Stock Picks 1, Stock Picks 3, Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Bear Market Rally Ahead - Stock Picks

Don't miss the Ox-portunity to make money when the Bear Market Rally comes!

I'm getting ready to charge and ride on this Ox-portunity to ring in an Ox-picious Chinese New Year!

Are you ready?
Have you done your homework?
Have you done your stock picks?
What is your stock pick criteria?

Oh, I have not shared with you another secret on my BMI.

My BMI has a twin indicator. It also indicates how high the STI or the stock might go. This is one of my criteria for stock picks.

I'll be focus this time: limit the number of stocks I'll hold or trade.

When will the bear market rally come?

Read Stock Picks 2, Stock Picks 3, Stock Picks 4 , Stock Picks 5

Monday, November 24, 2008

November 24 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 24 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Unlikely to see strength

Astrology: Market continues to be volatile

Technical Analysis: US indices – might decline further

This is shortened week for US market with quite a heavy schedule of important reports. Friday is a new moon. Will we continue to see rolling bottoms?

Friday, November 21, 2008

Best Six Months - Investment Strategy

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, just staying invested in the stock market for the best six months and then switching into fixed income for the other six months had produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.

Wow! So which is the best six-month period of the year?

Yes! November to April. Remember “Sell in May and go away!

So how do I decide when to enter and exit during this best six-month period?

1. Use the MACD signal.

2. Starting in Oct, monitor and wait for the MACD to turn positive, then enter the next day.

3. Starting in April, monitor and wait for the MACD to turn negative, then exit the next day.

4. If the market is down trending, entry is usually delayed until the market turns up, while exit point can come a month earlier. In 2007, the MACD turned positive on November 28, 2007 for S&P 500.

5. Use the MACD signals only to enter and exit as the market's favourable (October/November) and unfavourable (April/May) seasons approach. All other MACD signals through the year should be ignored.

Hmm... I shall use this together with my other Stock Market Forecast tips to Beat the Market!

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Games Stock Traders Play

Having a better understanding of stock market dynamics should help increase the probability of winning the game?

What games do stock traders and investors play?

Daryl Guppy shared his views in an article published on CNBC website on Tuesday, November 18 2008, key points are:
  1. Traders and investors are constantly playing games in the market.
  2. Market volume is a record of such activities.
  3. Careful analysis of the relationship between price and volume tells us which game is in play.
  4. What games are out there?

Pump & Dump: This is where desperate individuals play bully with a small stock and use small volume trades to “pump up” price. This price rise is irresistible to other traders and they buy in the hope the price rise will continue. They are tagged when the price manipulator “dump” or pulls out of the market.

Hide and Seek: This is when an investor tries to build a large position in a stock without causing the price to rise.

Catch that Rally: This is when investors capture a short burst of activity in a fast moving rally that, if traded correctly, can deliver good short-term profits for low risk before the rally retreats or moves sideways.

Pass the Parcel: The game starts with volume based on rumor. The aim of this game is not to be left holding the stock when the rumor is either confirmed or dismissed in the market.

How do you know which game is being played?

Read more in Daryl Guppy's article on how to recognise the Pump & Dump Game!

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Stock Market Forecast 2009 – Yin Earth Ox

Since Fengshui is my best risk management and market timing tool, Fengshui Forecast for 2009 will be featured in my Crystal Ball – Stock Market Forecast 2009:

Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Yin Earth Ox

Year 2009 is Yin Earth Ox Year or Ji Chou Year, with earth on top of earth or pure earth elements.

It starts on February 4, 2009, ends on January 4, 2010.

In general, earth will bring the mood of worry or meditation. So investors will be more cautious and practical. So 2009 will be a year of continual cooling down, showing signs of more stability and calmness. Despite the absence of fire element, the spring and summer months still show strong wood and fire influences bringing a steady upward trend in the stock market.

In summary:

  1. First half will be better than second half

  2. Favourable Industries/Sectors = Wood, Metal

Wood Industries/Sectors:
eg. Agriculture, education, fashion, textile, furniture, publications, paper, media, newspaper and magazines, water treatment.

Metal Industries/Sectors:
eg.Gold, automobiles, engineering, hardware, high technology.

Read other related articles:

Stock Market Forecast - Preview 1 and Preview 2

Dow/STI Chart for 2009

S&P 500 / STI Charts for 2009

S&P 500 / Dow / STI Charts for 1Q2009

Best Six Months - Investment Strategy

January 2009 Govt Budget - Early Rally?

Stock Market Forecast 2009 - TA

More Fengshui Stock Market Predictions

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

January 2009 Govt Budget-Early Market Rally?

PM Lee had announced that the Government's Budget Statement, traditionally delivered in late February, will be unveiled a month earlier, before the Chinese New Year which falls on January 26, 2009.

Will this make the stock market rally in January and February 2009, so we all can “Huat Ah” all the way into Chinese New Year? Hahaha, Gong Xi Fa Cai! Cai Yuan Kun Kun Lai!

Also, did you notice that many analysts are forecasting a possible economic recovery in second half of 2009? As stock market is usually 6 to 9 months ahead of the economic cycle, will the stock market start to rally before then?

I dun think the global economy will recover so soon. Even PM Lee said “We are already in recession and we expect a 'U-shaped' recovery with a fat 'U'. At the same time, we must be ready for more surprises.” He reckoned that the recession would last a year but beyond that there could be several years of slow growth before things get back on track. (source Business Times Nov 17, 2008).

But that does not mean stock market cannot rally hor!

Food for thought!

Monday, November 17, 2008

November 17 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 17 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: First half weak, second half some possible strength

Astrology: Volatile , expect huge price swing near end of week

Technical Analysis: US indices – decline likely to resume, possible change late week.

This week is options expiration week for US market. Weekly patterns indicate it is normally a positive week.

Stock market crash is defined as a drop of 15%. US indices already dropped more than 15% post- election. We already witnessed a mini crash. Will the stock market crash continue for the next 3 weeks?

Based on Fengshui, December starts on December 7, 2008.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Stocks with Bottoming Signals?

Did you notice some stocks with bottoming signals?

Some brokers were reporting the same stocks with bottoming signals the past 2 weeks. Is it a sign that STI is bottoming out too?

Beware that such chart patterns can fail. Beware of those reports which have business interest?

Now STI might be trying to test the last low of 1474. Will it form a double bottom or will the last bottom be broken?

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Stock Trader's Almanac 2009 – Summary?

I managed to get a free copy of the Stock Trader's Almanac 2008 yesterday. Now I understand what this book is trying to say.

It actually uses historical data to identify possible market trends or patterns by day, week, month, year and periods, etc and then predicts the possible market trend for the year.

Below is a summary of the Forecast for 2009 that I found while surfing the internet. It ryhmes and riddles, so need to guess what it is trying to tell us hor!

How the Markets Perform (Monthly Market Trends)

"The following verses are excerpted from the beginning page of each month in the Stock Trader's Almanac 2009. Each verse offers insights on how markets have historically fared during each month of the year.

October: October has killed many a bear. Buy tech stocks and soon wear a grin ear to ear.
November: Astute investors always smile and remember. When stocks seasonally start soaring, and salute November.
December: If Santa Claus should fail to call. Bears may come to Broad and Wall.
January: 20th Amendment made “Lame Ducks” disappear. Now, “As January goes, so goes the odd-numbered year.”
February: Either go short, or stay away. The day before President’s day.
March: March has Ides and St. Patrick’s Day. Begins bullishly, then fades away.
April: April “Best Month” for Dow since 1950. Day-before-Good Friday gains are nifty.
May: Was Number One month for nine straight years. But five out of the last ten have caused May tears.
June: Last Day of June not hot for the Dow. But for stocks on NASDAQ, WOW!
July: When Dow and S&P in July are inferior. NASDAQ days tend to be even drearier
August: August’s a good month to go on vacation. Trading stocks will likely lead to frustration
September: September is when leaves and stocks tend to fall. On Wall Street it’s the worse month of all "

Remember “History is a guide, not Gospel”

I've never tested it's forecast, so not sure how accurate hor. Anyway, this is the first time I'm reading it in detail since I got the free e-book.

Alamak! Just found out the above also the same as Stock Trader's Almanac 2008!

Nevermind, let's check out the details at Kinokuniya, hope it is available!

Friday, November 14, 2008

SharesInvestment Rewards for Survey!

I think it was about a month ago that I participated in this online survey by I thought it was a lucky draw type of survey, so did not blog about it.

I was surprised to receive a Pair of Movie Tickets for participation in the survey. So it was every participation gets rewarded!

Ha ha, I can take my mum for free movie liao! The tickets are valid for one year, so I can wait for good chinese movie to come, which my mum will like lor!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Forecasting Economic Cycle with K-Wave

Kondratieff Cycle also known as K-Wave has a 60-year cycle, divided into 4 seasons of 15 years each. The 4 seasons can be associated with the 4 phases of the Economic Cycle and can be mapped into the Stock Market Cycle.

Look at the chart below (left). We are now in the Winter Season, similar to 1929-1949 period!

And if we convert the DOW chart to Gold$ mapped into the K-Wave, looks like there is more room to fall! See chart below (right).

(Source: the longwaveanalyst)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

DOW/STI Chart for 2009?

How will the Dow or STI Chart for 2009 look like?

My forecast, this is a possible preview of the Chart for 2009. It is the weekly Dow chart for 1929 to 1930. (click on image to zoom out)

"The significant features are:

  1. The rapid fall is followed by a rebound and rebound failure;
  2. The primary rebound failure occurs rapidly with another market collapse;
  3. The pile driver low is retested within 12 months;
  4. Support, defined by the pile driver low, is not successful.

The low of the market develops in 1932, about three years after the 1929 crash. The key trigger is the failure of support set by the pile driver low. The disaster is that it takes 25 years for the market to exceed the high of 380 set in July 1929. This is why the Depression is referred to as a generational event. The current situation has the potential to have the same generational impact.”

Where is Dow or STI heading now?

"The pink circle shows the comparable position of today’s market. This is a period of high volatility, but volatility lessens and the market moves into a more clearly defined trending behavior. This pattern of behavior suggests that a rebound from the current support levels may persist for around 20 weeks.”

"Markets will not behave the same way as in 1930, but they will develop in a similar fashion. There is a high probability that these behaviors will develop in shorter time frames.”

Text in blue were extracted from Daryl Guppy's article published on CNBC website yesterday.

Recession vs Depression Chart Patterns?

Will US and the Global Economy be in a Recession or Depression?

The stock market can give the clue? How? Look at the Chart patterns!

Below comments were extracted from Daryl Guppy's Article published in CNBC website yesterday:

1. “A recession is an economic slowdown that may last for 6 to 18 months. A depression is an economic pullback that may last from two to four years.”

2. “In a recession, the market will develop strong trending behavior many months prior to the official confirmation of the end of a recession. This recovery provides trend trading opportunities.

In a depression the market will develop a long-term consolidation pattern. This is an investment period that lays the foundations for generational fortunes. Trend-trading opportunities do not develop for several years. This consolidation and accumulation phase concentrates on creating income flow from dividends. The fundamental end of a depression is not recognized until many months after the market has already reacted.

3. The key trigger that separates a recession from a depression is the behavior of the rebound from the pile driver low.

Recession behavior - After the 1987 crash, the rebound quickly developed strong trending behavior. The move above the midway point in the market fall signaled a continuation of the uptrend. See chart. (click on image to zoom out)

Depression behavior is when the market fails to move above the midpoint of the extreme fall area.

On the current Dow chart, the area near 12,000 is the key level to watch. Failure to move above this level suggests a depression scenario may develop.

A sustained move above 12,000 signals a recession. There is one caution in this analysis. The Dow has not yet developed a confirmed pile driver bottom pattern on the weekly chart. The low of this pattern will determine the mid-point resistance level that is used to signal a recession recovery. See chart in DOW/STI Chart for 2009?

ES Contracts vs Warrants/CFD ?

Still remember the new SGX product I mentioned in August 2008 Article “ETF, Alternative to Stock Picks” ?

Yes, finally, Singapore Exchange Limited (SGX) announced on November 5, 2008 that it will launch Extended Settlement (ES) Contracts on 23 January 2009, previously referred to as Single Stock Derivatives (SSDs).

ES Contract is a forward contract traded on the SGX Securities Market:
  1. Can Buy or Short Sell the underlying stock listed on SGX
  2. Can settle up to 35 days later
  3. No finance charge.

Looks like better than trading warrants or CFD – no time decay, no finance charge, more price transparency (not controlled by market maker). Best of all, can short sell, can profit from Bear Markets. Hope it includes STI ETF, then I can short sell lor!

I'm going to attend the free seminar to find out more.

Interested? Register online at SGX (seems there is some problem with the system, so I register via email)

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Trading with Moons?

Using the Moon as Market Timing Indicator?

Yes, Trading with the Moons.

"You can buy Full Moons and sell New Moons, just like you can buy in November and sell in May. The Moons can be used as a guide to mark market turns when the markets get very emotional and volatile. Full Moons are statistically lows.”

November 13 is Full Moon (my lunar calendar marks November 12th as full moon)

"This was the 79th year anniversary of the final November 13th low of the October 29, 1929 crash. If we see a deep low near this Full Moon of November 13th, then the next New Moon of November 27th will most likely be a high. But if we do not see enough selling by the Full Moon, we may continue to decline towards the New Moon as well.”

Above quotes taken from one astro expert.

Let's watch the market, see if Trading with the Moons work with Singapore Stock Market.

Oh, today is 11/11/08, what can happen?

Monday, November 10, 2008

November 10 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 10 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Some strength but volatile

Astrology: Volatile, likely to move sideways

Technical Analysis: US indices – stocks might fall Monday, likely move sideway then decline.

November 2008 Monthly Stock Market Forecast – Technical Analysis had been updated. Be careful, likely Stock Market Crash in November. Read the Updated November 2008 Stock Market Forecast.

November 13 is the 79th anniversary of the Oct 29, 1929 Stock Market Crash. Remember it was the post crash low – see A replay of 1929 Stock Market Crash. Will it be the low for 2008? Or will the low occur in December 2008, tracking the history of 1987 Stock Market Crash?

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Commodity & Oil in 30-Year Cycle?

One source said Commodity & Oil has a 30-Year Cycle:

10 years up + 20 years down = 30-Year Cycle

History of Highs: 1860, 1890, 1920, 1950, 1980 and 2010?

So, is Commodity & Oil still in Bull Run?

Will it top out in 2010?

Is it safe to invest in Commodity & Oil related stocks?

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Success Through Foresight!

Who say Stock Market Crash cannot be predicted?

We witnessed the worst Stock Market Crash in 2008, Black October, that was forecasted here!

How did I do it? Oops, I mean how my expert resources (S.M.A.R.T. List) did it?

  1. Fengshui has a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on the 5 elements.
  2. Financial Astrology has a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on planetary arrangements.
  3. Technical Experts have a “crystal ball” to see the stock market direction based on effective technical indicators, chart patterns, elliott wave and fibonacci. And not forgetting the Hindenburg Omen!

The Art of Foresight – the # 1 Secret Ingredient of Success!

Get Early Warnings, Get Confidence to Take Wise Risks, Preserve and Grow Wealth through Foresight!

December 2008 Stock Market Forecast and ?

Interested to know the Stock Market Forecast for December 2008 early? What about January 2009?

Ok, if there is sufficient interest, I might consider working on it and sending such Stock Market Forecast out early via email. An additional bonus – Sector and Stock Picks which is most critical to ride Bear Market Rallies! All these will not be published in my blog.

You can register your interest and support for my effort via Get Email Updates (on right sidebar) and joining the Free EWI Club (on right sidebar below Get Email Updates).

I'm a EWI Club member and the best benefit from this Free Membership is when EWI declares a Free Week. Then I can access the Subscriber's Area for Free during that Free Week. The rest of the freebies you already know lor. Good stuff that give Foresight as I see it!

Thank you for your continued support.

(Updated Nov 17 - offer had lapsed)

Rising Risk of Hard Landing in China

Read this article by Dr Doom (Nouriel Roubini) published on Nov 4, 2008, “The Rising Risk of Hard Landing in China: The Two Engines of Global Growth – U.S. and China – are Now Stalling”.

Key points in the conclusion are:
  1. Risk of a hard landing in China sharply rising
  2. Global economy already headed towards a global recession
  3. U.S. contraction now dramatically accelerating
  4. First engine of global growth – the U.S. on the consumption side – now already shut down
  5. Second engine of global growth – China on the production side – on its way to stalling
  6. With 2 main engines of global growth now in serious trouble, a global hard landing now almost certainty
  7. Hard landing in China have severe effects on growth in emerging market economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America as Chinese demand for raw materials and intermediate inputs has been a major source of economic growth for emerging markets and commodity exporters
  8. Recent sharp fall in commodity prices and near collapse of Baltic Freight index are clear signals that Chinese and global demand for commodities and industrial inputs is sharply falling
  9. Global growth – at market prices – will be close to zero in Q3 of 2008, likely negative in Q4 of 2009 and well into negative territory in 2009
  10. So brace yourself for an ugly and protracted global economic contraction in 2009.

Friday, November 7, 2008

November 2008 Stock Market Forecast

November 7 to December 6, 2008

Fengshui: Yin Water Pig Month. Pig is a water element. So, water energy is extremely strong this month, that is the biggest enemy of the stock market. Water extinguishes Fire, so expect further stock market correction.
Favourable industries/sectors : earth, wood and water.

Financial Astrology: Market likely to rebound in second half (calendar month). Be cautious in long term bearish market.

Technical Analysis: US Indices – Uncertainties in technical indicators. Stock can either crash in next few weeks or move higher. (Updated Nov 9 - likely stock market crash in next few weeks, might break Oct 10 low, if break 7882 then 7197 might be tested)

Now, that's the problem with technical analysis – uncertainties in forecasting the short term direction. That's why I decided to look for alternatives and found Fengshui and Financial Astrology.

Anyway, lookout for November 10 Weekly Update, hopefully directions would be clear.

Read Dow Direction After Presidential Election for possible guidance?

Dun forget to watch A Replay of 1929 Stock Market Crash!

Dow Direction After Presidential Election?

2008 was the worst in history!

It is the fourth time that Dow had lost more than 1% the day after a Presidential Election Day, since 1900 and the worst in % terms.

Coincidentally, all the other 3 times occurred during the Great Depression and won by Democrat.

And how did Dow performed for the rest of the year in those 3 situations?

1932 -4.51% day after, -2.82% rest of year
1940 -2.39% day after, -0.64% rest of year
1948 -3.85% day after, -2.83% rest of year
2008 -5.05% day after, ???

(Source: B.I.G.)

What do you think will happen to Dow for rest of 2008? Will history repeat?

What do you think will happen to Dow after that?

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Direction of Straits Times Index (STI)

Do you read the daily Chinese Newspaper Zaobao?

Err.. my chinese not very good, words too chim I dun understand. But can roughly figure out what it is talking, at least can recognise the numbers lor.

Recently, my sister informed me there are technical analysis articles in Zaobao. So I try to follow, reading online, looking for English Headlines then switch to read the detailed Chinese Articles. Below is a copy of “Technical Analysis on STI” published on Monday, November 3, 2008.   

 本栏于上周一(27日)曾预估指数目前正处“肯跌低”周期,其特性为跌势猛、跌幅大,过后长时间在低位波动。10月28日指数更是一度下挫至 1473.77点,幸好当天以1666.49点闭市,遂成了“一日转向”讯号,上周五(31日)又以1794.20点闭市,也于其每周一杆图中出现“转向 ”讯号,因此,估计短期内当向上回扯,并填补介于1894.87点至1920.79点及介于1991.07点至2059.39点间的缺口,而整个回扯很可能在11月中旬结束,过后指数当重新进入跌势。投资者宜乘此次回扯脱身,正是“三十六着走为上着”。

Most important point – correction might occur mid-November, 2008.

On October 25, he wrote “DOW might bottom in 2013”. The rest I cannot figure out what it is talking, 2016 was mentioned.

If you understand chinese, remember to follow his articles. The links are included above. Also included on right sidebar.

Asian SARS vs American SARS

In 2003, we had the Asian SARS which affected Asia, then spread to the rest of the world.

Now, we have the American SARS"Severe American Recession Syndrome”

Oops, this term is taken from Daryl Guppy's article posted on CNBC Website. He wrote:

"We use the monthly S&P 500 chart to measure the temperature and track the recovery.” It might take 1 -2 years to recover.

"Market always fall more rapidly than they rise, simply because you do not need money to be able to lose money. The rebound from the recession target at 800 will be slow because new money is required to fuel a new uptrend. Any rebound from the depression targets will be difficult because the quantum of wealth destruction requires a new generation to develop new wealth before money is available for a new bull market.”

Refer to Chart Patterns and Time for chart of S&P 500 and depression targets.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Credit Crisis Survival Kit

I read 2 reports previously in August, issued by the company of Robert Prechter (Elliott Wave International), the author of the book "Conquer the Crash”. The reports provided a forecast of DOW using Cycle Theory, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci numbers. So I'm recommending EWI's latest, Credit Crisis Survival Kit.

Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit

Before it became the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression, the credit crisis used to be an arcane topic discussed only in financial publications. Now, it's on every computer, television screen, and front page of every newspaper in the world.

It may have you worried about what you can do to get through it with your personal finances still intact. What can you do about it?

Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit

Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm, put together this free resource featuring 15 hand-picked reports and videos that will show you:

1. How we got into this mess
2. How to survive and prosper from it
3. When you can expect the crisis to end

The detailed analysis covers topics worrying you and millions (if not billions) of other people around the world who are learning more and more about the dangers of the Credit Crisis every day.

Here are just 5 of the 15 topics covered:

· How Do I Find a Safe Bank?
· What Happens During a Credit Implosion?
· How Do I Ride Out this Crisis?
· What If You Can’t Sell Your House?
· Buy & Hold or Sell & Fold?

Read All 15 and Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave InternationalFounded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Chart Patterns and Time

Technical analysts claim they can predict the market psychology by looking at chart patterns. However, my observation is they are unable to predict the time the chart patterns will complete. Some technical analysts use additional parameters to predict the time of market turns. Again, they have difficulty predicting the time the chart patterns will complete.

But when I use Fengshui forecast together with the chart patterns, the market timing was perfect. Fengshui can forecast the market psychology.

So, it takes time for the chart patterns to form and complete. A lot of patience is required before we can confirm the continued downturn or reversal in the chart patterns.

2 famous trend reversal patterns are the Head and Should Pattern and the M Pattern or Double Top Pattern. Below is an analysis done by Daryl Guppy on October 27, 2008:

"The DOW is using the slope of the Head and Shoulder pattern neckline as a resistance level. This will limit the ability for the market to recover. Strong resistance is at 10000. The downside support level is near 7500. Watch for consolidation behaviour near this level. The next strong historical support level is near 4000. This is true Depression territory.

S&P 500 is forming an M Pattern. The long term support near 1060 failed. It will act as a resistance level. The valley support level in 2002 is near 780. This is a strong rebound point, but prior to 2002 it had no historical basis as support. Traders will be very alert for rebound and consolidation activity to develop near this support level. Failure to hold puts a Depression downside near 420."

(click on the diagram to zoom out)

One method to confirm a trend reversal of the Head and Shoulder Pattern is the formation of a Double Bottom. A double bottom, followed by A and V patterns as shown in the diagram, confirms the reversal. Another reversal pattern is the inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern. It takes time for the patterns to complete. Time can be in months or years!

Can you tell when the M Pattern formation in the S&P 500 will complete? Can you see the long term trend?

Should I keep my Whole Life Policies?

I have a whole life policy (death/tpd) and another 3 for CI/TPD/death. I no longer need insurance for death as I do not have any depe...