Monday, November 30, 2009

November 30 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 30 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to be weak this week, except for December 3 & 4 which shows potential strength. Dec 2 likely to be volatile.


Financial Astrology: Uranus turns direct on December 1 and US markets might have reversed prior to this date due to the Dubai Shock. December 2 is Full Moon. Will markets reverse up or breakout to the downside?

Technical Analysis: US indices – Final Wave 5 up had truncated and Phase 3 down might have started, if there is downside follow-thru this week when trading volume picks up.


A very heavy schedule of important potential market-moving economic reports this week:


Dec 2: ADP employment report, Fed Beige Book


Dec 4: Non-farm payrolls and Monthly Unexployment Rate


Have you read "Will Dow Repeat 1987's Post-Thanksgiving Decline?"

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Will Dow Repeat 1987's Post-Thanksgiving Decline?


The biggest decline on the day after Thanksgiving came in 1987 when the index fell 1.87%. At that point, markets were still digesting the October '87 crash, and the Dow went on to fall 8.76% in the week after Thanksgiving.

Today, Dow had its second biggest decline the day after Thanksgiving (November 27 2009) since it became an official federal holiday in 1941.

Source: B.I.G.


Dow fell 1.27% on a half-day trading session on November 27 2009.

Is the market still digesting the Dubai Shock, while most key market players were still on holiday?

When all key market players are back on Monday, November 30 2009, what will happen?

A repeat of 1987 "stock market crash" after Thanksgiving?



Remember what happened in 2008: "first it was Bear Sterns, then Countrywide Financial a few months later. And then all of sudden, it was Citibank, Merrill Lynch, AIG and others as the banking system started to heamorrhage."



So is this Dubai Shock the start of the next economic or financial crisis?


Thursday, November 26, 2009

Dubai Shock Triggers Wave C Down?

US Stock Markets are waiting to start Wave C or Bear Market Phase 3 down. Or has Phase 3 down already started in slow motion?

Global Markets are waiting for US Stock Markets to give the signal. Japan Nikkei Index already plunged! Now looks like China Shanghai Index started to plunge, bringing Hong Kong HangSeng Index with it.

Today European markets are dropping.

My Stock Market Time Clocks already gave the signal. Elliott Wave Experts also gave the signal.

So, will the Dubai Shock trigger Wave C down in US Stock Markets?

Let's watch US Stock Markets when it opens on Friday. Let's watch what happens to Regional Stock Markets tomorrow. Singapore Stock Market is closed tomorrow.

Take care if you have investments with exposure in Dubai!

Will have more for you after I hear from the US Experts over the weekend.




Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Prechter: Prepare For Large Decline In Stocks 2010?

I just watched CNBC.COM Live Video today (November 24 2009) an hour ago - managed to catch interview with Bob Prechter of EWI. Watch it below:

My Stock Market Time Clocks already showed me the date of the likely bottom! Hope it is correct! Time will tell! I'll be waiting there!












Has Bear Market Phase 3 Started?

I just read one blogger sharing what he read in the latest EWI Report isssued last night – EWI went short last night? Is what he blogs reliable?


What do my Stock Market Time Clocks say?


It is a set of complicated Stock Market Time Clocks. There are more than 3 'methods' of calculating turn dates. So what are the 3 most critical turn dates:

  1. November 17 2009

  2. November 23 2009

  3. December 2 2009


Yesterday, November 23 US Markets (DOW) made an all time high for 2009! Is it the end of this rally? Is it the start of Phase 3 down?


Watch the Regional Markets for potential reversal today! Watch the US Markets for potential reversal tonight! Watch the 3rd turn date!


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About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International

Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.


Monday, November 23, 2009

November 23 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 23 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market unlikely to do well Nov 23 & 24, likely to pickup Nov 25 onwards.


Financial Astrology: Dow might reverse if it can find support at 10,000.



Technical Analysis: US indices – Phase 3 down might have started on November 17 if markets continue to drop this week. If markets reverse up, a possibility that final Wave 5 up is not completed. A potential Head and Shoulder pattern forming in the 5-minute charts, a break below the neckline gives a downside target of 10,000.


US Markets: A very heavy schedule of important potential market-moving economic reports: Nov 24: Q3 GDP revision, consumer confidence, FOMC minutes release; Nov 25: Jobless claims

Nov 26: US Holiday

Nov 27: Singapore Holiday

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Stock Markets Turn on Full & New Moon!

Wow!


Even Elliott Wave Experts now include Moon Cycle when forecasting stock market turns!


Did you notice US markets (other Markets as well) top out on or around New Moon and bottom out on or around Full Moon? See the S&P 500 chart!



So, have Stock Markets World Wide top out on November 16 (Western see this as New Moon) or November 17 (1st day of 10th month of Chinese Lunar Calendar)?


Will Stock Markets continue to drop until the next Full Moon?


Let's watch!

Monday, November 16, 2009

November 16 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 16 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to see strength from November 16 to 18.



Financial Astrology: Will markets continue to rally or decline? What could happen on November 15 when Saturn Pluto square occur?



Technical Analysis: US indices – Has Phase 3 down started or are we still in final Wave 5 up? Major turn dates November 15 to 17. It was a New Moon when markets started its decline in October 2007 top. November 16 is New Moon, will markets start Phase 3 down?



Have you read Stock Market Major Turn Date: Nov 15-17?

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Stock Markets Major Turn Date: Nov 15-17?

When will this Bear Market Rally end? Or has Phase 3 Down of this Bear Market already started?

My Stock Market Time Clocks say Major Turn Date is around November 15 to 17.

2 US Elliott Wave experts also identified these as major turn dates. Will it be the end of this Bear Market Rally?


According to Mr Joseph Cycle, for Phase 2 or Wave B rally to stop rising, there must be a significant event strong and shocking enough to kill it. What will that event be?

Swine Flu Panic Part 2?

Terrorist Attack?

Next Asset Bubble Burst? quote from Roubini:


"...one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments."

So far, nothing has happened in Singapore at the APEC 2009 meeting.


“We can only open our eyes and stay on alert and not be paralysed by it”: Mr Joseph Cycle.


What are the Charts telling us now?



One US expert trader identified a potential bearish M-Pattern forming in the S&P500 60-Minute Chart.

Wow! I checked the Straits Times Index and found a similar M-Pattern forming in the STI 60-Minute Chart.

If confirmed, then markets will likely drop down to complete the M-Pattern, then look for the A-Pattern!

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

EWI Short Term Update November 10 2009

Wow! Have you read EWI's Latest Short Term Update - November 10 2009?

Did you notice the possible turn dates mentioned are same as give by my Stock Market Time Clocks? The 3rd turn date mentioned is also in my Stock Market Time Clock!

Learn more about FreeWeek, and download your free reports here.


Below news from Yahoo Finance Nov 6 2009:

With the Dow back above 10,000 (as of Thursday's close, at least), the message from many on Wall Street is: Hurry! The recovery train is leaving the station! Don't miss out on the next phase of the bull market!

Not so fast, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International and author of Conquer the Crash.


"Everybody who's saying ‘buy stocks' today or ‘buy real estate' is, I think, setting up people to get really hurt," says Prechter, who believes the bear market rally is reaching a major top.


"We had a great opportunity at [S&P] 667 - that was the big opportunity," says Prechter, who did make a bullish call last February. "The market is up 60% [from the March lows]. There's no way the S&P is going up 60% from here."


Prechter's advice for most investors, as described in the recently released second edition of his book, is fairly simple:


Play it Safe: Keep as much of your assets as possible in cash and cash equivalents, Prechter recommends, stressing not all money market funds and bank CDs are created equal -- or equally safe. (Prechter also advocates exposure to gold but isn't as bullish on it today as he was in 2002.)


Patience Is a Virtue: "Sit back, relax. Be as safe as you can [and] in safe institutions," he says. "There's a great buying opportunity coming up around 2014, 2016."


Return Of Capital Is Key: "Be very careful," he says. "Don't lose the money you have saved in the markets that are likely to come down in 2010 a long way."


From Prechter's perspective, "there's no negative to getting safe." The worst thing that happens is the market keeps rallying and "you can't brag at cocktail parties," he says. "But at least you won't be crying because you lost half" of your assets.




Monday, November 9, 2009

November 9 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 9 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market unlikely to see strength, except November 10 and 12 which are likely to be volatile.


Financial Astrology: Will markets continue to decline? What could happen on November 15 when Saturn Pluto square occur?



Technical Analysis: US indices – Phase 3 down likely started. Wave 1 down with sub-wave 2 up completing, next is sub-wave 3 down. Or will the alternate wave count play out?



Have you read Stock Market Correction of 10% to 15% coming?



Sunday, November 8, 2009

November 2009 Stock Market Forecast

November 7 to December 6, 2009

This is the Yin Wood Pig Month. Water element is extremely strong this month and does not favor equity markets. It is unlikely we see potential growth this month.

Gold might see correction in second half of month.

Favourable industries/sectors: Wood and Metal


Financial Astrology:


Markets likely to be volatile.


Watch these dates:


  1. November 15 – Saturn Pluto Square, could be point of heavy selling
  2. December 1 – Uranus turn direct.


Technical Analysis:


US Market: Phase 3 down likely started. Possible alternate wave count: final wave 5 up in process?

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Stock Market Correction 10%-15% Coming!

An interview with Daryl Guppy published in The Edge Singapore November 9 Issue. Key points to note:

  1. Based on chart patterns, Gold could fall to test USD1,000, then USD960 or USD940. Breakout is unsustainable. Strength in gold is related to weakness in USD.

  2. China market corrected 20% before moving sideways, rest of North Asia and Singapore could follow. If the same behaviour repeats, there's shorting opportunity that last 6 to 10 days.

  3. South Korea's Kospi leads Hang Seng Index and Singapore index. Resistance at 1700, support at 1580/1600. Is retest of 1580 fails to hold, market will move back to 1450.

  4. Hang Seng Index: support at 21000. A fall below gives a target of 19000. HSI follows Kospi behaviour rather than Shanghai index, it is driven by western sentiment, not Chinese sentiment.

  5. Straits Times Index (STI): strong resistance at 2750, broad support at 2650. A fall below gives a target of 2400. If overshoot, downside target is 2200.

  6. Australia ASX 200: next level is 4400, then 4000.

Bear Market Rally Over: Prechter (Part 2)














FreeWeek Update: Elliott Wave International's publications have alerted subscribers -- and FreeWeek attendees -- that volume and breadth readings have been contracting throughout the multi-month rally, which signals a critical juncture ahead. EWI Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg wrote in his Wednesday Short Term Update, "(On Tuesday), the VIX closed back within two standard deviations of its 20-period moving average, which for the past seven months, has resulted in a near-term rally." On Wednesday, stocks closed up; Thursday saw a huge rally. On Friday morning, the Dow regained the 10,000 level. But the Update reports that the "next leg … is fast approaching."

There's still time to get complete access to EWI's latest monthly reports and the Monday, Wednesday, Friday Short Term Update. A brand-new Update is online now. Read it for free when you join FreeWeek.

You can also download more than 4 of EWI's latest monthly reports and read this week's issues of Short Term Update. It's all yours for free only during FreeWeek.


Learn more about FreeWeek, and download your free reports here.


Friday, November 6, 2009

Bear Market Rally is Over: Prechter

News from Yahoo Finance:

"With the Dow Jones Industrial Average once again marching closer to 10,000, many investors, especially those who missed the rally since March, must be asking themselves: Is now the time to finally pull the trigger?

Robert Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International, implores retail investors stay away… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March, now says the stock market "is in a topping area."

Why?

Several factors:

  • Slowdown in upside momentum. Recent intraday rallies are petering out before the close.

  • Bullish Sentiment. Investors who were bearish near the lows, are now just as bullish after a 60% run in the S&P 500. To Prechter, "that's a dangerous place to be."

  • General overvaluation of stocks.

Prechter, the author of Conquer the Crash, says this is akin to the market in 1966-74 or 1929-32, where massive bear rallies gave way to another "big leg down."

He's predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below this year's low. His word to the wise, "be patient, don't rush it" keep your money in cash and cash equivalents for now and wait out this bear market.

He thinks it'll be another 5 or so years before we turn the corner but the good news is when we do, it'll be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.




Exciting News: Our friends over at Elliott Wave International are offering Robert Prechter's latest monthly market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, for free along with the firm's most popular U.S. analysis and forecasting publications. You can now download, print and read dozens of chart-filled pages of current analysis for U.S. stocks, the economy, precious metals, bonds, U.S. dollar and more -- and it's all free for one week only. This opportunity ends Nov. 11. Learn more about FreeWeek, and get your free reports here.






Thursday, November 5, 2009

EWI FreeWeek -Robert Prechter's Latest Forecasts


Exciting News: Our friends over at Elliott Wave International are offering Robert Prechter's latest monthly market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, for free along with the firm's most popular U.S. analysis and forecasting publications. You can now download, print and read dozens of chart-filled pages of current analysis for U.S. stocks, the economy, precious metals, bonds, U.S. dollar and more -- and it's all free for one week only. This opportunity ends Nov. 11. Learn more about FreeWeek, and get your free reports here.



Eight months ago, the stock market began a very large rally -- the gains exceeded 60% in the S&P 500. Everyone knows this. But here's a fact that has gone virtually unreported: The vast majority of those gains (about 90%) were from March through August. By comparison, September and October were sluggish.

Yet the past two months have been the very time when the financial press has been the loudest about "green shoots," "recovery" and "new bull market." So the question is WHY -- why so much enthusiasm, even as the evidence literally fades away?

No one asks questions like this, never mind provides the answers. The one exception is Bob Prechter. And if most investors suddenly DID learn the details of his answer... well, the information would buckle their knees.

Prechter does of course provide a detailed answer in his current Elliott Wave Theorist. The latest Elliott Wave Financial Forecast expands on that answer. You can read both award-winning monthly market letters right now for free!

But let me be clear: The answer is in fact a forecast. What Prechter says is bigger and more important than these two publications. It could prove to be the most important forecast he has offered since the financial debacle began.

This moment -- today -- is the time to put yourself on the path to safety. You can now download Prechter's latest monthly market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast -- for free. Together, they provide critical analysis for the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, gold, silver, bonds, U.S. dollar, the economy and more.

This amazing opportunity runs for a full week. It ends Wednesday, Nov. 11.

Learn more about FreeWeek, and get your free reports here.

Here's a sneak peak inside these two timely issues.

October 2009 Theorist | What's Inside?

  • 14 eye-opening charts across 10 analysis-packed pages for today's most critical markets: U.S. stocks, gold and the U.S. dollar.

  • One chart you will NOT see elsewhere: It depicts a beautiful -- and telling -- fractal form in the past two years of market action.

  • Mounting evidence from trusted technical indicators: sentiment, advance/decline ratio and volume.

  • A decennial pattern in U.S. stocks that's held true for 10 of the past 11 decades.

  • An informative and useful section titled "Devising Trading Strategies."

  • Two and a half pages of gold analysis -- why lessons from the past likely provide ironies for the future.

  • Poignant analysis for the U.S. dollar.

November 2009 Financial Forecast | What's Inside?
Special Section: The November Financial Forecast includes an eye-opening special section on Goldman Sachs. These new insights about one of Wall Street's most storied firms have broad implications for Wall Street as a whole. You will see a picture of Goldman's history plotted along a 100-year chart of the Dow. You will also learn how the same sentiment driving the market today will drive the course of mega-deal makers in the future. This is a can't-miss special section.
Plus, you will get:

  • A thorough Elliott wave perspective on the stock market today -- what does Elliott tell us about the current juncture?

  • A telling bar pattern candlestick aficionados will recognize.

  • Valuable momentum considerations, including powerful evidence from a technical analysis method that tracks the distribution of stock from strong hands to weak.

  • A chart of dollar trading volume vs. GDP and the important analysis about it that you should see now.

  • And much more.

What's more, these are just two of the incredible free resources you get during this week only. You will also have completely free access to the most recent Theorist and Financial Forecast archives (September and October issues for each publication are currently available.) as well as the tri-weekly Short Term Update, which is designed to keep EWI's subscribers up to date between the monthly issues above.

Please don't delay. This special, limited-time offer from EWI is one of the most valuable free offers we've ever written to you about. It expires Nov. 11. Please follow the link below; sign up to join FreeWeek for free; print out your free reports; read them at your leisure. Do not miss this exciting opportunity.

Learn more about FreeWeek, and download your free reports here.



About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International

Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.


Monday, November 2, 2009

November 2 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

November 2 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui:
Market unlikely to perform well this week, except Nov 5 & 6.



Financial Astrology:
Will markets continue to decline? Neptune will turn direct on November 4 2009, will markets reverse?



Technical Analysis:
US indices – Phase 3 down likely started.



US Market – a heavy schedule of potential market moving economic reports:


Nov 3 & 4 – FOMC Rate Decision

Nov 6 – Non farm payrolls and Unemployment rate.

Have you read Stock Market Crash Coming?


Have you read DF/DM Warning Indicator?

George Lindsay Long Cycle: DJIA 20 Year Cycle

I just found and read an article which Ed Carlson wrote in 2014 about George Lindsay's Long Cycle, see extracts below: If point A = ...