Friday, October 30, 2009

Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent Future?

What does the U.S. stock market now have in common with the famous crash of 1929? This news excerpt and chart from some of Bob Prechter’s latest analysis reveals startling. Read More

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Down Friday/Down Monday Warning Indicator

According to Stock Trader's Almanac, a Down Friday/Down Monday market behaviour is often a warning sign of negative market direction, frequently coincides with market tops and near major market bottoms.

Since 1995, there have been 126 occurrences of Down Friday/Down Monday, with 31 falling in bear market years of 2001 and 2002 producing an average decline of 12.7%.

In 2001/2002, Dow loss 13.5%/11.9% over the next 3 months, lasting 53/54 days, after the occurrence of the Down Friday/Down Monday market pattern.

On average, Dow loss 5.4% over 35 days after the occurrence.

Did you notice the Down Friday/Down Monday behaviour over the last weekend (October 23 & October 26), the first since August 31 2009?

Hmm... possible warning of market correction over the next few weeks?

Best Fixed Deposit Rate in Town?

Which Bank pays the Best Fixed Deposit Interest Rate?

I googled the internet and found this. Guess what?

State Bank of India again! Is it the Best? Please let me know if you know of better ones.

SBI Clementi Branch Promotion:

1.Fixed Deposit Rate of 1.28%!

2.Free $10 NTUC Voucher for New Accounts Opened!

Hmmm... Let's go check it out this weekend!

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Jeremy Grantham Stock Market Outlook 2009-2010

Jeremy Grantham just released his Q3 Client Letter (Just Desserts and Markets Being Silly Again) on his outlook on US Economy and Stock Market.

Hmm... is he hinting about a repeat of 1929 – The Last Hurrah and Markets Being Silly Again – after the sharp decline in the fall of 1929, the S&P500 rallied 46% from its November low, then fell over 80%.

Other key points to note:

  • It still seems a safe bet that seven lean years await us.

  • Fair value on S&P is now about 860. This places today's market (October 19) at almost 25% overpriced.

  • We face a seven-year future that almost everyone agrees will be tougher than normal.

  • We are nervous about a possibility of a major shock to Chinese growth (a one in 3 chance that a major China stumble in the next 3 years).

  • What will stop this market in the first few months next year? A combination of 2 factors:
  1. Disappointing economic and financial data will begin to show the intractably long-term nature of some of our problems, particularly pressure on profit margins as the quick fix of short-term labour cuts fades away.

  2. Slow gravitational pull of value as US stocks reach +30-35% overpricing in the face of an extended difficult environment.

  • On a longer horizon of 2 to 10 years, resource limitations will also have negative effect.

  • Before next year is out, the market will drop painfully from current levels. “Painfully” = starts at -15%. US market will drop below fair value, which is a 22% decline from S&P500 level of 1098 on October 19, 2009. I think history books will be happy enough with 666 of last March, probably slightly happier with say 550.

  • The irony is 9 months of weak economic data this year has been accompanied by a very strong market, so the strong economic data next year is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market.

Monday, October 26, 2009

October 26 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

October 26 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market likely to very volatile, especially Oct 26 & 29. Rest of week shows potential strength.

Financial Astrology: Will markets continue to decline or will Bullish Planets help support the markets?

Technical Analysis: US indices – likely to decline Monday. When wave 4 down completes, next is final wave 5 up (comprising 3 sub-waves). When will Phase 3 start?

Have you read Stock Market Crash Coming?

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Stock Market Crash Coming?

Has this Bear Market Rally ended or going to end? Is US Stock Markets going to crash soon?

Based on Elliott Wave Count by US Expert, here are the alternative Elliott Wave Counts:

1.Bear Market Rally likely ended.
2.Bear Market Rally likely in final wave 4 down now, next is final wave 5 up.

When this Bear Market Rally ends, fasten your seat belt and prepare to ride the Voyage to the bottom of the C!

As there is no Hindenburg Omen, the decline is likely to be slow and painful. Based on the chart patterns forming in DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq, the downside target for S&P500 is likely be 666, the March 2009 low.

What do my Stock Market Time Clocks say?

1. Stock Market Time Cycle Formula 1 – Turn dates had been accurate so far, however, the market turn direction are reversed most of the time. Next major turn dates – see chart attached. If market turn direction is reversed again, then invert the chart for the turn date market direction.

2. Stock Market Time Cycle Formula 2 – Wow! It's Amazing! The November 2009 turn date is very close to that of Formula 1. Likely marks the end of this cycle!

Do you know what day is October 28 2009? Do you know what day is November 15 2009?

October 28 2009: Saturn enters Libra October 29 2009, often marks market reversal. It is about "2 years" from October 2007 Top.

November 15 2009: Saturn Pluto Square, often marks market top or bottom. It is about "1.5 years" from October 2007 Top. It is Fibonacci 50% of the time from October 2007 Top to March 6 2009 Low!

US Markets started to decline on October 16 2009. This was the date Mars entered Leo. Markets often decline when Mars move into Leo. Mars will only change sign about 7.5 months later.

So watch these dates, plus minus a few days!

(One Expert said Time Cycles forecast turn dates, not the market direction or whether it is a market top or bottom)

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Gold: What's REALLY Behind the Record Rise, Bull or Bubble?

When prices in a financial market go from Sea Level to Outer Space in a relatively brief time, two scenarios are at work -- and they both start with the letters “B-U.”

When a precious metal goes from being a popular long-term investment of buy-and-holders to the quick, get-away “vehicle” of day-traders, two scenarios are at work -- and they both start with letters “B-U.”

And when the majority of mainstream pundits see a "new paradigm" in which prices continue to rise indefinitely, two scenarios are at work – and, you guessed it, they both start with the letters “B-U.”

Enter: the recent Gold Rush of 2009, when ALL of the above conditions apply. Everyone from hedge funds to housewives now hustle to hitch their asset wagon to the rising gold star. Which begs this question: Which of the possible two scenarios are at work: B-U-ll
--- Or B-U-bble?

Here’s the difference: A genuine bull market is driven by a self-sustaining internal dynamic that's reflected by a host of technical indicators. A Bubble, on the other hand, is the result of untenable psychology that could shift at any moment and bring prices plummeting down.

For long-term forecasts and more in-depth, historical analysis for precious metals, download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

It goes without saying into which category the mainstream experts put Gold: namely, a new bull market that has years, if not decades more to soar. “Gold Will Hit $2,000 an ounce,” reads an October 8 Market Watch. And -- “Gold Has More Upside… The metal’s bull run is just getting started,” adds a same day Barron’s.

-- Read More

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

China Shanghai Index Leads, DOW Follows!

Daryl Guppy wrote a very interesting article published on the CNBC website today.

Key extracts from the article:

“We use the Dow Index and the Australian ASX S&P 200 index (XJO) as representative of markets outside the US. The DOW and XJO charts have been time shifted to the left so the absolute market lows of March 2009, match the time of the absolute market low in the Shanghai Index in October 2008. This type of time shifted display clearly shows which market is a leader and which markets are followers.”

China leads and the DOW follows:

1. The DOW is now at 10,000 but how important is this in terms of global market behaviour?

2. The DOW is following the behavioural leadership of the China market.

3. The 10,000 equivalent for the Shanghai Index is 3,000. The Shanghai market reached this level and briefly powered above it before developing a trend correction.

4. The Shanghai Index remains in trend correction mode and is using price and time corrections. The price trend correction is the sudden index fall of between 15% to 20% from 3480 to 2750. The time correction for the trend is the extended sideways movement over the past 10 weeks.

5. The important relationship is not the comparative percentage returns, but the comparative behaviour. We need to watch carefully because there is a high probability our markets and the US market will follow this China market leadership behaviour with a lag of several months.

6. This suggests a trend price correction in the order of 10% to 15% followed by a period of sideways trading as the market applies a further trend correction using time.

7. Analysing and understanding China market behaviour is absolutely critical to any market strategy. China leads, the DOW follows the behaviour and other markets tag along further behind. Watching China gives investors a glimpse of the potential future. It is absolutely essential to developing any long term portfolio investment or planning.

Monday, October 19, 2009

October 19 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

October 19 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market unlikely to have strength, except Oct 19. Oct 22/23 likely to be unstable.

Financial Astrology: Markets decline when Mars enter Leo on Oct 16 2009. Will markets continue to decline or will Bullish Planets help support the markets?

Technical Analysis: US indices – Direction uncertain for Monday. Markets likely to have found a rally top or might continue to rise. When will Phase 3 start?

Friday, October 16, 2009

2010 Year of Tiger Fengshui Predictions

Lilian Too, Fengshui Master, was the first speaker at the Wealth Summit Asia 2009. Wow! I was very impressed with her presentation, first time I attended her talk! What's her view of 2010 Year of the Metal Tiger?

2010 Year of the Metal Tiger will be a Bad Year! There is no water element. Normally, there is hidden elements but no water element for Year 2010! Water brings wealth, no water, no good!

But, there is still plenty of money to be made. It will benefit those who have water element in their Bazi or Four Pillars! Water in Bazi = Good Luck! Do you have?

Good luck is all about Timing. Having patience to do nothing. Get Timing Right! (Wow! Even Jim Rogers said “You are not going to make money unless you have good Market Timing. Stocks will be in a Trading Range for many years!)

Have you heard of “God of Wealth seated on the Tiger”? Tiger brings “God of Wealth”.

Which do you want: Income Luck or Wealth Luck?

Read Fengshui Outlook 2010 Year of Tiger

Read CLSA Fengshui Index 2010

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Conquer the Crash 2nd Edition Robert Prechter's Bestseller that Forecast Meltdown

Mark Hulbert's Sept. 11, 2009, column for says, Robert Prechter "came the closest … to forecasting what was about to take place." One thing the noted financial columnist left out was that many of Prechter's forecasts still lie in the future. The long-awaited second edition of Prechter's bestseller, Conquer the Crash, is finally here! Prudent investors should read his prescient insights, what he believes is still ahead and what you can do to protect your wealth today.

Learn more about the special pre-order offer for Robert Prechter's bestseller, Conquer the Crash, Second Edition.

Today's financial and economic tribulations were a long time in the making. Many people ask, "Why didn't someone see it coming?"

But a New York Times bestselling book did see it coming. More than 100,000 people read it in time to protect their wealth.

They read this about real estate:

What screams 'bubble' – giant, historic bubble – in real estate today is the system-wide extension of massive amounts of credit to finance property purchases.... Many people have been rushing to borrow the last pennies possible on their homes. They have been taking out home equity loans so they can buy stocks and TVs and cars and whatever else their hearts desire at the moment. This widespread practice is brewing a terrible disaster.

And this about stocks:

...the number one precaution to take at the start of a deflationary crash is to make sure that your investment capital is not invested in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures or any other equity-based investment.

About Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

Investors in these companies’ stocks and bonds will be just as surprised when [Fannie and Freddie's] stock prices and bond ratings collapse. Most rating services will not see it coming.

About junk bonds:

Don't think you will be safe buying bonds rated BBB or above. If you have invested in municipal bonds, consumer debt, real estate debt, junk bonds or anything other than top-grade paper, sell it at today’s lofty prices.

All these observations are from Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash, first published in early 2002, when the Dow was above 10,000 and the financial world was partying around-the-clock. Fast forward to today: The average U.S. homeowner has suffered a decline of 30% to 40% in property value. Stocks and commodities had their biggest fall since 1929-1932. Fannie Mae is a zombie corporation under the government’s protection.

If Prechter thought a whole new book would help, he'd have written one. But Conquer the Crash is a book-length forecast that's still coming true-- only some of the future has caught up with the specific predictions he published back then. There is much more to come. And that means more danger but also great opportunity.

The same authorities who said "the worst can't happen" now claim that "the worst is over." That's one of the many reasons why Prechter is choosing now to put out a second edition of Conquer the Crash.

Conquer the Crash, Second Edition, offers you 188 new pages (480 pages total) expanding Prechter’s unique deflationary argument and escorting the reader through the stock market’s manic climb to the 2007 peak. (If you think you remember this period, wait till you read Prechter’s description.) And it still includes all the original forecasts and recommendations that make the book as compelling and as relevant as the day it published.

In every disaster, only a very few people prepare themselves beforehand. Think about investor enthusiasm in 2005-2008, and you'll realize it's true. Even fewer people will be ready for the soon-approaching, next leg down of the unfolding depression.

Prechter warns that the doors to financial safety are closing all over the world. Prudent people need to act while they still can.

We couldn't agree more. This book is a must-read.

Learn more about the special pre-order offer for Robert Prechter's bestseller, Conquer the Crash, Second Edition.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.

Monday, October 12, 2009

October 12 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

October 12 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market likely to see major movements and volatile Oct 12 to 14, rest of week likely to see strength.

Financial Astrology: Jupiter turns direct October 12. Will markets reverse? Who will win the battle: Bullish or Bearish Planets in the Sky?

Technical Analysis: US indices – Direction uncertain for Monday. Final Wave 5 up likely completing. Alternate wave count: 2 more sub-waves coming (down then up)? When is Phase 3 starting?

Friday, October 9, 2009

Wealth Summit Asia 2009 (Oct 10-11)

For just S$10, get to attend a 2-day conference and a chance to meet Wall Street Financial Legend Jim Rogers Live!

Why not?

Jim Rogers will be sharing “How anyone can invest profitability in commodities”

Wow! Last minute, they added Lilian Too, Fengshui Master, to talk on Fengshui for Wealth!

Are you attending? See you there!

What can I learn? What will I learn?

More when I come back!

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Where to Sell Gold Jewellery?

Wow! Gold price has been going up. How high will it go?

USD1500, USD2000, USD3500?

When will it drop to USD550? I'm waiting.

Hahaha, now that Gold price is going up, we thought maybe it is a good idea to find out where we can sell our old Gold Jewellery before Gold crash down (this is what the expert say).

My sister suggested we visit Maxi-Cash to “test the market”. Oops, she received a Gold ornament as present a few years ago, so let's go find out how much it is worth now.

Maxi-Cash is a modern pawnshop, recently opened a new branch at People's Park Complex. We can sell Gold ornaments to them or pawn it. The price is different, higher if we sell.

Wah! Now I know where I can sell my old fashion gold jewellery when Gold price go up more! Then when Gold price drop, I can buy new fashion gold jewellery! Hahaha! Tan Koo Koo lor!

(If you know of other places which offer better value, please email me. Thank you!)

(Oct 8, 6.00pm - A blog visitor shared on another source but did not leave his email address. I did a quick check on the website and noticed the price is no better than Maxi-Cash. How can it be better being a broker (middle-man) who also pays commission to affiliates for referrals? I would not want to risk the loss of my valuables sending it to a remote location prior to receiving cash. What might be useful is they post the daily buy-back price, so we can check it against whoever we might be selling the gold to. Anyway, thanks to Mike for the website:

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

October 2009 Stock Market Forecast

October 8 to November 6, 2009

The Yang Wood Dog Month shows strong earth energy. Markets likely to be volatile, with risk of great losses due to greed and manipulations. First half shows potential for gains, Second half most volatile and will be the cause of the financial market downfall.

Favourable industries/sectors: Wood and Metal

Financial Astrology:

There are Bullish and Bearish Planets in the Sky. Who will win the battle: Bull or Bear?

Watch these dates:

1.Oct 12 – Jupiter direct

2.Oct 15 – Mid point Saturn Uranus Opposition

3.Oct 29 – Saturn enters Libra

Technical Analysis:

US Market: After Wave 4 down is completed, next is Final Wave 5 up. Will Wave 5 up come? Will it truncate? When it truncates, fasten your seat belts, as Phase 3 down will start.

October is the number one Stock Market Jinx?

October 11 2009 – 2nd anniversary of October 11 2007 Stock Market Crash, start of this Bear Market Phase 1 Cycle!

Heavenly Seven! Magic Seven!

On October 6 2009 or October 9, 2009, this Bear Market Rally or Phase 2 of Bear Market will be Seven Months old. Will this signal the end of Phase 2 of Bear Market, triggered by the number Seven?

Sudden WINDFALL $24 Million in Account ?

This morning, I login to check the cash balance in my trading account to confirm money had been transferred to my bank account.

Wow! Surprised to see a sudden increase of more than S$20K in my account balance! Ting! Ting! Ting! First thought was: Wow, they refunded to me all the overcharged commission for the past few years! Called my sister.

Decided to take a second look and do some calculation. Open the account balance again.

Wow! It is S$24 Million, not S$24K!

More compensation?

WINDFALL! Never seen so much money in my account in my LIFE! Huat ah!

Hahaha! Capture it before its gone!

(This morning, I fell down and hit my head against the wall, heard a big "crack" sound. Hope my "skull" is ok. Maybe affected my eyesight. Oops, how long more can I live. Pray for me!)

Prechter Says Stocks Are Poised for ‘Major Decline’

Reported on Bloomberg, October 5, 2009, key extracts from report:

U.S. stocks may suffer a “major decline” after climbing to the highest levels in almost a year two weeks ago, according to Robert Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International Inc.

The S&P 500 Index will probably fall “substantially below” 676.53, the 12-year low reached on March 9, he said.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, agrees with Prechter that stock and commodity markets may drop in coming months as the gradual pace of the economic recovery disappoints investors.

“Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast,” Roubini said in an interview in Istanbul on Oct. 3. “I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U- shaped. That might be in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.”

Stocks, commodities and real-estate will suffer from a rebound in the U.S. dollar, Prechter said.

Learn the Wave Principle and Other Forms of Technical Analysis. Elliott Wave International has just released The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook. This FREE 50-page ebook is dedicated solely to teaching reformed fundamentals followers to incorporate technical analysis into their own investing decisions. Learn more and download your free copy here.

As the major stock markets turned down in late 2007 and then started to rally in March 2009, many people who believed in fundamental analysis have begun to question its validity. Read More.

Monday, October 5, 2009

October 5 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

October 5 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market unlikely to see strength, might improve Oct 8/9.

Financial Astrology: Markets topped out within 6 to 10 trading days from Saturn-Uranus Opposition on Sept 15. Will Dow drop another 1500pts in next couple of weeks?

Technical Analysis: US indices – Direction uncertain for Monday. When Wave 4 down is complete, next is final Wave 5 up. Will we get Wave 5 up?

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Trading is Risky, Will Lose Money?

Is Shares/Warrants Trading Risky?

One local Professional Trader cum Trainer said “You are guaranteed to lose money in Trading. So must have money management or risk management rules put into practice so that what you lose is less than what you make over time.” In short, he is preaching there is no perfect trading method/system, no holy grail, cut loss if you are wrong. So he is telling you his trading method taught to students also has weakness. Do you know why it will fail, when it will fail and what will fail? Why pay to learn from him? Haha, today, this Professional Trader wrote in his blog saying he is confused with the US markets and now sitting on the fence. Would I want to pay to learn from him?

One US expert trader said “If Trading is Risky, Why Trade and lose Money? Find a Winning System! Otherwise, dun trade!

I agree with the US expert. Why trade and lose money? Why trade and be prepared to cut loss when you know the trading method has weakness? If I know the trading method has weakness: why it will fail, when it will fail and what will fail, I will not trade or use the method.

Now, I fear not because I have discovered a Winning Method for Trading STI Put Warrants. Yes, consistently making profits since I started after monitoring to confirm it works for some time. And, nobody believe me, including my “Trading Representative & Co”.

But I realised I've been losing money after I started STI Put Warrants Trading: Broker overcharged me at 0.33% instead of 0.28% brokerage and related fees:

  1. Contra Profits for STI Put Warrants Trading were lower with the higher brokerage fee, plus higher related fees such as GST, etc., especially when the contract value is high.

  2. Shares Trading/Investing Profits were lower since I started many years back.

Although I did check when I first started online trading and noticed minor differences in the brokerage fees, thinking the online calculator only give estimates, I did not seek clarifications and continued. (I know nothing about investment/share trading then). Differences were minor because I started small. Now the contract value for the STI Put Warrants trading is bigger, that triggered my suspicion and further action to investigate.

More horror stories unveiled:

  1. Default is 0.33% with Remisier, 0.28% with Dealer.

  2. Company website is not correct: Non-advisory online Trading is 0.28% and Advisory online is 0.33% . No, not like this.

  3. Surprised you are charged 0.33% for warrants

  4. All my clients are charged at 0.33%

  5. Change to Dealer to get 0.28%

  6. I've too many clients, find another Trading Rep

  7. Account suspended, change of trading rep.

  8. 300k trading limit, no deposit required. Now, deposit 100k to get 300k trading limit

  9. No deposit? 100k trading limit.

  10. 300k temporary trading limit for today, ok.

  11. Remisier comfortable with you, maybe less deposit required

  12. Account suspended, you send emails to complain, new Trading Rep stressed.

  13. Find your own Trading Rep to activate your account.

(item 7 to 13 occurred in 1 day)

Wah lau! Bloody Sharks (Unstable Remisiers)! My investment at risk! Trading is Risky! No contingency plan! Dead!

Thank God! I have no share holdings! Market Crash, I'm dead! No means to sell! Other trading accounts I have dun have necessary trading limits. I forgot the password for other trading accounts dormant for so many years. I dun know how to use the other dormant systems.

Learnt a painful lesson! Going to start contingency plan - activate online trading systems with other brokers. Seeking professional help to deal with Broker Shark!

Should I keep my Whole Life Policies?

I have a whole life policy (death/tpd) and another 3 for CI/TPD/death. I no longer need insurance for death as I do not have any depe...