Monday, August 31, 2009

August 31 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

August 31 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market unlikely to perform well. Expect volatility on Sept 4, a strong water day.



Financial Astrology: No major planetary alignments this week. But Mercury goes retrograde on September 7, 2009. Will it cause the market to reverse within 5 trading days?


Technical Analysis: US indices – Wave 3 likely still in progress. Holiday's tend to be bullish ( Sept 7 is US Holiday), but remain alert and nimble as we approach the worst historic month of September.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Prechter Prepares for Next Wave Down !

Elliott Wave International released a Special Elliott Wave Theorist on August 28, 2009. Have you read or heard what Prechter told his subscribers in this Special EWT?


2 bloggers shared what they read, summary of key points below:


Robert Prechter now sees increasing risk, risk that this rally is ending and the next wave down is approaching.


"The Dow has essentially achieved the first of these retracements levels. Indeed, at this point, the Dow has also achieved a Fibonacci 3/8 retracement, creating a Fibonacci 50% gain in a Fibonacci 5 months. It would be a nice place for the rally to stop.”


"Given that stocks remain in the largest-degree bear market in nearly 300 years, it is not a good idea to bet inordinately on the upside. We should not ask more of the 'stock market gods' than they have already granted us.”


"The prudent thing to do is return to a bearish stance now that prices have reached the first Fibonacci retracement level. Investors should continue to keep the bulk of their wealth in cash and the safest possible cash equivalents, in the safest institutions.”


"If you actively invest in the stock market with money you can afford to lose, it's time to return to the short side. It may be early in terms of both time and price, but that's the cost of insuring that we don't miss profiting in the next wave down."



Wow! Have you read what my Stock Market Time Clocks say?


Be Prepared!

Thursday, August 27, 2009

September Dow Performance over 100 Years

“Below is a chart that highlights the average monthly performance of the DJIA over the last 100 years. As shown, September is the worst month of all with an average decline of 0.96%. The only other month that has averaged a decline is February (-0.15%).

And it's not a down month just because of a few outliers. Only 42% of Septembers over the last 100 years have seen gains.”


(Source: B.I.G.)



Which category will Dow September 2009 fall into?

Efficient Market Hypothesis: True "Villain" of the Financial Crisis?

(Editor's Note: The following article discusses Robert Prechter's view of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. For more information, download this free 10-page issue of Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.


Could a "theory" really produce a mess this large? Read More.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

4 Keys to Success (Investment or Speculation)

Huat Arh! Over the weekend I found some information on the Secrets of Stock Markets!


Here is just a preview for you as I've not finished reading and digesting it.


4 Keys for Success in Investment or Speculation:


1. Time: The future is but a repetition of the past! (Message is taken from the Bible). There is a definite relation between price and time. When Time is up, stocks make Top and start Down. When time is up and the Time Cycle runs out, stocks make Bottom and start Up. They can go higher until Time runs out. No matter how low they are, they can go lower until Time is up. Time is the most important factor in determining and forecasting market movements.


2. Knowledge: Most vital factor for Success in speculation or anything is Knowledge. Hard work in acquiring knowledge will surely bring success in speculation or business.

3. Patience: Learn to wait for a definite indication of a change in trend before buying or selling. One must not guess or gamble on hope or fear. Act after one have acquired knowledge and know it is the Time to Act.


4. Courage: Courage to Act. Knowledge will give one courage for action at the Time when the real opportunity comes.


Wow! These additional information will help me confirm the dates provided by my Stock Market Time Clock: is it a Top or Bottom! Experts have used the information to successfully forecast the Stock Market. It's a successful Stock Market Timing Formula! But Experts are not sharing the most Vital Secret of Stock Market Timing! Either they dun know or they dun wish to reveal the Secrets of Heaven! But I know it, it is in my Stock Market Time Clock!

So when will this rally likely to end?


Based on my updated Stock Market Time Clock:

August 28 or September 4-7, 2009

High probability is September as it coincides with multiple Bearish Planets appearing in the Sky! But Heaven usually will give notice 1 to 2 weeks in advance, its up to you to take notice. Is it the warning in China Shanghai Composite Index? Let's see how reliable is this Secrets of Stock Market Timing!



This is a Bull Run within a Bear Market! Will it continue after the “Crash” or Major Correction?


More when I complete my reading and research! Remember the Secrets of Stock Markets!

Monday, August 24, 2009

August 24 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

August 24 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to be slow and weak, better on August 27/28.



Financial Astrology: Expect high volatility.



Technical Analysis: US indices – Wave 3 likely started. Monday might decline.


Other expert views:

Weekly pattern: Week after option expirations week tend to be down.

China Shanghai Composite: Likely to rebound to 3040-3125 before next leg down to test 2761, if break more downside.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Optimism is Back. Should You Buy Stocks Now?

The DJIA has been stuck in the low 9,000 point range for most of August, but the talk of "a new bull market," "a V-shaped recovery," and tributes to the Federal Reserve for saving the day are getting louder. The optimism is back.....”

“And that's exactly why most investors buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. “

“What to Expect in Wave 2 -- Wave 2 could carry the Dow as high as 10,000... Wave 2, regardless of its extent, should regenerate substantial feelings of optimism. At its peak...the government will be taking credit for successfully bailing out the economy, the Fed will appear to have saved the banking system, and investors will be convinced that the bear market is behind us. Be prepared for this environment; it will be hard for most investors to resist. The perverse result of wave 2 will be to get people even more heavily invested than they already are, just before wave 3 starts.”

Above extracted from Elliott Wave International's Article "Optimism is Back. Should You Buy Stocks Now?", August 20, 2009. Read more - click on same title in box at right side bar of this blog.


Wave 2 = Phase 2 of Bear Market. Wave 3 = Phase 3 of Bear Market. When will Dow hit 10k? Will it get there? Will it get there before the Pessimistic Planets take control or after?


Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Bull Trap, Another Stock Market Jinx Ahead?

Do you know the “significance” of the Hungry Ghost Festival, the 7th Lunar Month, to the Chinese? Most view it as a “Jinx”, a Stock Market Jinx as well as in other areas.


The 7th Lunar Month starts from August 20, 2009 (first day) and ends on September 18, 2009 (30th day). Coincidentally, there are Pessimistic Planets, Planets which are likely to cause Stock Market Crash or Major Corrections, appearing in the Sky during this period. I'll have more information for you once I complete my research. So do be careful.


Based on Elliott Wave Count, US Markets are likely to have more downside. Markets might reverse down tonight – I got an astro reversal signal.


Still remember the Double Top Chart Pattern? Be careful of the Bull Trap (“A” Pattern, "Kiss of Death") in the making before the next leg down! (possibility in China Shanghai Composite).


I just got information that a similar "Kiss of Death" pattern might occur in the DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite.



Free: Bob Prechter’s 10-Page Market Letter

Our friends over at Elliott Wave International (EWI) are offering Bob Prechter’s recent 10-page market letter, free. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Learn more.


Why are the truly big economic catastrophes so "big"? Put simply, it's that such a small number of people prepare themselves beforehand. Think about 2008 and you'll realize it's true. What's more, once you read Bob Prechter's recent 10-page Elliott Wave Theorist, you'll see that even fewer people will be ready for the soon-approaching worst leg down of the unfolding depression.

In this issue, Bob gives a warning he's never had to include in 30 years of publishing – namely, that the doors to financial safety are closing all over the world. There are but a few opportunities left and little time to take them. Even as this happens, the terrible irony is that so many people believe the conventional wisdom, which claims "the worst is over."

It's not too late, but the doors really are closing shut. Learn what you need to know now. You're a few clicks away from your free 10-page issue of Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist.

Go here to download it now.


About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private

Monday, August 17, 2009

Earn 1.28% Interest on Fixed Deposit!

Wow! Is this the highest and the Best Fixed Deposit Interest Rate and Package available in Singapore?


Yes, I think so! Let me know if you know otherwise.

As part of the Toa Payoh Branch Opening, State Bank of India Singapore is offering this attractive Fixed Deposit Package for a limited period only. Offer is also available at Marine Parade Branch.

  1. Interest Rate: 1.28% per annum for 50K (below 50K also quite attractive)

  2. Term: One Year

  3. Interest Credited to Savings Account on Quarterly Basis

  4. No penalty for early withdrawal: Interest already credited to savings account is yours to keep. ( You know how to benefit from this package lor! Dun know? Talk to me!)

  5. Offer valid till end August 2009.



(Savings Account interest rate at 0.55%. So effective FD interest rate is higher than 1.28%! Wow!
)

Wow! Isn't this too good to resist? I'm parking my funds there until..... you know lor, when stock market good lah! No worries, 100% guaranteed by Singapore Government.



Oops! More freebies – you also get free gifts when you open a Savings Account!



Want me to receive freebies also?

Just tell them you are referred by Ms Tan who owns a blog called SMARTINVESTING18, hehe, if you happen to drop by Marine Parade Branch, look for Keith lor. Then maybe he will give me a KFC meal voucher, the same gift you will get for the Savings Account lor! Oops!


(I've now been informed that promo is available at all branches. updated August 19, 2009)

August 17 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

August 17 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

Fengshui: Market likely to do well from August 17 to 20.

Financial Astrology: Many powerful planetary alignments. Will it be powerful Bull or Bear? Expect large price swings and high volatility. It is better to stand aside.
Market will decide which way to turn on August 18. A break below 9210 (Dow), next target 8980. A break above 9380, uptrend might continue.


Technical Analysis: US indices – Wave 2 (3 waves abc) likely started, likely continuing wave c down.


This is Options Expiration Week, so expect high volatility.

Read China Leader in Stock Market Recovery & Crash?

Read Solar Eclipse Impact on Stock Market


What day is August 18 2009? What day is August 20, 2009?

August 18 – it is how many days from the start of this Bear Market?

August 20 – It is the first day of the 7th Lunar Month, the start of the Hungry Ghost Festival!

Sunday, August 16, 2009

China Leader in Stock Market Recovery & Crash?


Have you read the Short Term Update (STU) from Elliott Wave International issued on August 14, 2009?


One blogger posted what he read in the STU:


“Shanghai Composite is approaching the lower trendline. If it breaks, the odds are high the Bear Market Rally is over! And it will be the first to roll over! US indexes should follow after the reality sets in that the Chinese recovery was a mirage driven by debt, the Final Bubble so to speak.”


“Right now the S&P hovers above the crucial 992 level. A break of that indicates a change of trend, with a week-long decline before the Final Surge. Thus the perspective remains of a higher high in the range of SP1100 and Dow 10K (+/- 300) by end of summer after the decline. Dow 9700, the heart of the prior wave 4 is a common stopping point and Dow 10334 is at 50% retracement.”


“Monday should be a Chinese Curse Day for both the Chinese markets as well as US equities.”


According to one astro expert, Shanghai Composite Index had broken the Double Top neckline (low created on July 29, 2009) and 50 DMA, so expect more downside. It has strong trendline support at 2985.


So, will China's Shanghai Composite Index, the Leader in Stock Market Recovery, become the Leader in the coming Stock Market Crash? Will it become a Worldwide Stock Market Crash soon?


What does my Crystal Ball Say?


Fengshui Forecast – a possibility! Financial Astrology Forecast – a possibility! Technical Analysis – still somewhat bullish vs bearish views, but waiting for Hindenburg Omens!


When we get the Hindenburg Omens, then likely the final leg or Phase 3 of Bear Market will kick off the next leg of the Voyage to the bottom of the C!

Friday, August 14, 2009

What My Stock Market Time Clocks Say?

“Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock! Ting Ting Ting! Master, master, me cannot move my hands liao! Got confusing signals! No energy liao is it?”

Oops! I received some more information on the Stock Market Cycle Formula late last week and had input some information. That might have confused you lor cos not all new parameters had been input. Then I dun want you to give wrong signals, so I removed the batteries lor! So you got no energy to move your hands liao!

Focus on the Big Picture and the Big Profits will follow!

That's right, I must always remind myself of the Big Picture! So, I'm now spending time to do further research, to make my Stock Market Time Clocks tell me the “Big” market turns, like the one on March 6, 2009. My Stock Market Time Clocks show this as a major turn. So I shall work on this formula to find the next and future major market turn dates.

Wish me good luck!

Solar Eclipse July 22 2009 Impact on Stock Market

What message did I receive in the email from the Astro Expert this morning?

There are 2 Groups of Planets coming face to face: Optimistic Planets which create the stock market bubbles and Pessimistic Planets which are coming to burst the bubbles (another stock market crash?)



Who will win the battle? Optimistic Bulls or Pessimistic Bears?



Expect explosive energy or high volatility from today till next week. Especially August 18, 2009, one new moon from the Solar Eclipse on July 22, 2009. ( I thought new moon is on August 20, 2009)



Do you know what day is August 18, 2009 and August 20, 2009?

“While these planetary alignments may not be the specific trigger for a huge plunge in the markets, the potential is there. So you might want to take defensive measures if you are long in stocks.”

“Even if we don't get a major market pull-back during the coming week, we need to stay alert for a big trend reversal at this time. The likelihood of a significant correction is extremely high during the next 4 to 6 weeks.”



Lookout for more updates in Stock Market Update Weekly August 17, 2009


Solar Eclipse & Stock Market Risk Window?

Yesterday, I switched to a new ISP (Internet Service Provider). This is giving me hell of a problem! I cannot access my 2 most important trading tools. Today, I cannot access blogger update functions.


Now I switched back to my old ISP, so can access the trading tools and blog.


Just a quick message: I received an email from an Astro Expert this morning warning of a possible major correction due to the Solar Eclipse on July 22, 2009. That is, the risk window or impact on the stock markets is still there. You already witnessed the crash in the China Shanghai Stock Market where the Solar Eclipse occurred in that location (China).


I'll have more for you once I solve my ISP problems.


Be Careful!

Are These 4 Emotional Pitfalls Sabotaging Your Trading?

Identifying and overcoming these four emotional pitfalls is key to mastering emotional discipline and trading success.



Read More

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Prechter Says Gold & Silver Due for a Major Fall

Gold has fallen sharply in recent days, but its supporters are undaunted: The yellow metal remains within earshot of its all-time high and is destined to soar as the dollar implodes, gold's bulls say.

As is often the case, Bob Precther, president of Elliott Wave International, takes the contrarian view, arguing there's "too much optimism" about precious metals and negativity around the dollar.

In fact, Prechter believes the dollar put in a major bottom last week and, as a result, foresees major weakness ahead for commodities generally, and gold and silver specifically. The precious metals are "heavily overbought" and the "path of least resistance" will be to the downside for many months, he says. "[Gold's] going to go much further [down] than people think."

Prechter predicts gold will follow silver's path, which has put in a series of lower highs in recent months.

"Even though people are one-sidedly bullish on precious metals, they're not making any progress at all," says the legendary market watcher. "I would not be loading up on gold at this point, you'll get a better opportunity later.

(Source: Yahooo Finance 11 August 2009)

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

In late February, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said "cover your shorts," and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range.

With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."

"The big question is whether the rally is over," Prechter says, suggesting "countertrend moves can be tricky" to predict. But the veteran market watcher is "quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we've already experienced," and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.

Yes, the late 2007-early 2009 market debacle was just a warm-up to what Prechter believes will be the bear market's main attraction. In this regard, he says the current cycle will echo past post-bubble periods such as America in the 1930s and England in the 1720s, after the bursting of the South Sea bubble.

The 2000 market peak market a "major trend change" for the market from a very long-term cycle perspective, and the downside is going to continue to be painful well into the next decade, Prechter says. "The extreme overvaluation, the manic buying and bubbles in the late 1990s [and] mid-2000s are for the history books - they're very large," he says. "The bear market is going to have balance that out with some sort of significant retrenchment."

(Source: Yahoo Finance August 11, 2009)

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Free eBook Still Available: 14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should Know

Elliott Wave International is still giving away their Best of Trader’s Classroom eBook. Originally scheduled to end on August 10, EWI has extended their deadline until August 17 due to thousands of downloads in the past two weeks. The eBook compiles 14 of the very best lessons from their Trader's Classroom Collection of eBooks (retails for $189) and puts them in one incredibly valuable 45-page report. Best of all, it’s completely free.

Some of the most interesting chapters include:

  • Why Emotional Discipline is Key to Success

  • When to Place a Trade

  • How to Use Bar Patterns To Spot Trade Setups

  • How To Calculate Fibonacci Projections

  • The Best Place for High-Opportunity Trade Setups

You'll find several more fascinating lessons -- 14 in all -- at the link below.

I highly recommend you download this eBook right away if you haven’t done so already. Don’t miss out on the August 17 extension. It’s rare to find valuable trading resources like this one at no cost.

Go here to download them now


Monday, August 10, 2009

August 10 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

August 10 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market likely to weak, except for August 10. August 13 likely to be volatile.



Financial Astrology: Many powerful planetary alignments. Will it be powerful Bull or Bear? Expect large price swings. Err on side of caution.


Technical Analysis: US indices – Extended Wave 1 up shows signs of topping out, next should be wave 2 down, expected to last about 1 week.



Wednesday August 12 is FOMC rate decision.

Friday, August 7, 2009

INVESTFAIR 09 (22-23 August 2009)

Jointly organised by ShareInvestor and Business Times:

INVESTFAIR '09
22-23 August 2009
Suntec Convention Center
Level 4, Exhibition Hall 402-403

Free Seminars, Free Admission


Details of 2-day programme see INVESTFAIR '09

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Making of Domed House - Straits Times Index?


Did you notice topping patterns forming in a number of STI component stocks? Topping patterns like Head and Shoulder or Double Tops.

Straits Times Index also shows sign of topping pattern – Making of Domed House or Head and Shoulder Pattern? You might not noticed it now.


One US Expert forecast a Domed House will be formed in S&P 500. I took this idea and created the Domed House Chart for Straits Times Index (Forecast). If Alternate # 4 Elliott Wave Count is correct, then we should see a Domed House being formed.


Alternate # 4 Elliott Wave Count?

Yes, a number of local analysts are still counting STI, HangSeng, Dow and S&P500 indices as 5 waves up. They are still in Wave A up of Phase 2 of Bear Market.


Does it mean they will be counting Wave B and Wave C next?


Wow! I like this Elliott Wave Count, it's going to make me rich! It means another opportunity of 50% rally! Oops!


Wednesday, August 5, 2009

August 2009 Stock Market Forecast

August 7 to September 6, 2009

The Yang Water Monkey is a strong Water Month. Equity Markets are likely to experience loss of profit and wealth. The financial market is likely to sink into more uncertainties and confusion. Most investors are likely to suffer if they have been bullish about their positions.

Favourable industries/sectors: Water and Wood


Financial Astrology:

Many planetary alignments and movements active. “Optimistic” planets might have stronger influence in first half, while second half will likely be volatile under “pessimistic” planetary influence.


Technical Analysis:

US Market: This is very confusing with 4 Alternative Elliott Wave Counts. Which Elliott Wave Count will be the correct one? Now still in wave 1 or wave 2 and when will wave 5 end? Once wave 5 end, then Phase 3 of Bear Market will start? Oops! That depends on which Elliott Wave Count is correct lor!

Read August 2009 Forecast Bull or Bear for the 3 alternate Elliott Wave Counts.

4th alternate – coming soon!

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Asian Stock Bear Market Rally Ending Soon?

Have you read the latest Elliott Wave International's Asian Pacific Financial Forecast?


On August 3 2009, Bloomberg reported on the EWI APFF's analysis for MSCI Asia-Pacific index citing the lack of technical strength and unfavorable readings in volume and momentum that suggest the bear-market rally in Asian markets might be ending soon.


"MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has climbed in five waves from lows in March, indicating that the rebound is only the first leg of a larger “bear-market rally.” The index’s peak volume and momentum in the smaller wave that started mid-July was lower than that of an earlier advance, another indication that prices may “correct”.

"MSCI Index has been gaining in the past three weeks under the so-called trend channel that contained most of the advance since March. The index reached the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the decline between 2007 and 2009 at the 110 level. Further gains mean the index could peak near 123, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level.”



Monday, August 3, 2009

August 3 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast

August 3 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast


Fengshui: Market unlikely to perform well this week, except August 7 2009.


Financial Astrology: Last week's forecast was wrong. Will markets continue to move up to down under these multiple planetary movements?

Technical Analysis: US indices – Wave 1 up shows sign of topping out, next should be wave 2 down. Uncertain direction on Monday.


Read Lunar Eclipse August 5 2009 & Stock Market


Read August 2009 Forecast Bull or Bear



A very heavy schedule of potential market moving economic reports coming out in US, key ones:
Aug 5 ADP Employment Report, Aug 7 Unemployment rate and
nonfarm payrolls

Saturday, August 1, 2009

August 2009 Forecast Bull or Bear?

How long more will this Bear Market Rally continue?


When will Phase 3 of this Bear Market start?

Will a retest of the March 6 2009 low occur in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 …..?

Will the March 6 2009 low hold?

Hmm... these are million dollar questions!

I need to take a deep look into my Crystal Ball for the million dollar answers! Oops!

For now, let's review the Elliott Wave Counts. Now there are 3 alternate wave counts. Wah! So complicated one!

  1. Wave C up will be 5 waves, wave 1 up looks topping out.

  2. Wave C up will have 3 waves, wave A up looks topping out.

  3. Wave C of Wave 4A (Phase 1) looks like topping out, next will be Wave 5A (Phase 1) down.

Which will be the correct wave count?

I guess we will know the answers by looking at the Chart Pattern!

Remember I mentioned some experts were very bullish when they see the inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern. Did you notice there is another bearish Chart pattern?

Yes, few experts noticed this Bearish Expanding Triangle Pattern.




Here's my guess:

  1. If a major correction occurs, the triangle support line is broken and rebound is no where in sight, then likely rally has ended. Possibly Alternate 3 Wave Count is in play.

  2. If a major correction occurs, the triangle support line holds and rebound, the rally might continue. If the rally hits the triangle resistance line, drops and break support line, then likely end of rally. Possibly Alternate 2 Wave Count is in play.



  3. If a correction occurs and rebound, the rally might continue. If the rally hits the triangle resistance line and breakout, likely Alternate 1 Wave Count is in play.




Look at the Dow, S&P500 and Straits Time Index Charts attached – Bearish Expanding Triangle Pattern labelled as wave counts A, B, C, D, E in Straits Time Index. Note the forecast is not drawn to scale!


Still confused? Lookout for Stock Market Forecast for August 2009 – coming soon!




George Lindsay Long Cycle: DJIA 20 Year Cycle

I just found and read an article which Ed Carlson wrote in 2014 about George Lindsay's Long Cycle, see extracts below: If point A = ...