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Sunday, October 19, 2008

Black October Strikes Again, Will Bear Be Killed?

Black October Month Strikes Again. Can it kill the Bear this time?

According to a group of retail traders, if October Dow is Down, then November Dow will probably be Up. They based their conclusion on historical data from 1994 to 2007. They are planning to buy. Maybe this was a reason some value investors bought, but maybe caught the falling knives instead?

Hmm.. I dun think we can just rely on historical data of that period to conclude. We should look at data from Bear Markets. Ha ha, guess what?

Based on historical data from 1900 to 1990, when October was Down, November was also likely to be Down. Here is a sample from Major Bear Markets I've done:

1929 Oct -69, Nov -35
1932 Oct -10, Nov -5
1937 Oct -18, Nov -8
1941 Oct -9, Nov -3
1987 Oct -403, Nov -160

"History is a guide, but never gospel” Do not rely on history too much. What's more important is the future! What can or will happen in the future?

How? I rely on my Crystal Ball - Forecast using Fengshui, Financial Astrology and Technical Analysis. Better be safe than sorry!

This is a different Hungry Bear!

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